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Thread: Mookie Betts

  1. #1
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Mookie Betts

    As you may have heard, the Red Sox are looking to cut payroll and are willing to move their star outfielder who has one year left on his contract. The Reds have been mentioned as a team that could be a fit given their "win now" statements, as adding a perennial MVP candidate certainly goes a long way.

    So the question is, what does it take and what would you be willing to give up? According to one source, the price is incredibly steep: Betts' replacement in the lineup, a mid-rotation starter under team control, and two top 100 prospects. Most configurations I can come up with from the Reds perspective on this are a little tough to swallow. And ultimately I think they are likely to get anything that good from any team.

    Approximately what would you be willing to give up? I think I'd be pretty aggressive while trying not to sell the farm. I'd be curious if Boston is interested in guys with several years of control like Aquino, Garrett, and Mahle. Two of those three and a Top 100 prospect like Jonathan India and a competitive round draft pick seems pretty similar to what St. Louis gave up for what was at that point one year of control for Paul Goldschmidt. It's also possible that with Boston looking to unload salary that the Reds could take another contract off their hands in order to lower the overall price. Rusney Castillo (1 year, 14 mill left) or Dustin Pedroria (2 years, 25 mill left) would fit that bill.

    What say you? Yay or nay on Betts, one of the best players in baseball, and what would you be willing to deal to get him?
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

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    Re: Mookie Betts

    I wonder if something like the following would work:

    Reds Get:
    Betts
    Porcello
    Jay Groome

    Red Sox Get:
    Winker/Aquino
    Mahle
    Iglesias

    The Reds take on Porcello's remaining 1 year $20M to lessen the cost of acquiring Betts. Winker or Aquino becomes a corner OF/DH for Boston and replaces Betts in the lineup, Mahle a rotation candidate, and Iglesias helps shore up a bad bullpen. I think the hangup would be on Mahle as I am sure they would want a better controllable arm, but it is going to be hard to get a controllable mid-rotation arm for 1 year of Betts alone.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  4. #3
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Mookie Betts

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    I wonder if something like the following would work:

    Reds Get:
    Betts
    Porcello
    Jay Groome

    Red Sox Get:
    Winker/Aquino
    Mahle
    Iglesias

    The Reds take on Porcello's remaining 1 year $20M to lessen the cost of acquiring Betts. Winker or Aquino becomes a corner OF/DH for Boston and replaces Betts in the lineup, Mahle a rotation candidate, and Iglesias helps shore up a bad bullpen. I think the hangup would be on Mahle as I am sure they would want a better controllable arm, but it is going to be hard to get a controllable mid-rotation arm for 1 year of Betts alone.
    Porcello is a free agent.
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

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    Member Mitri's Avatar
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    Re: Mookie Betts

    Boston is not going to get what they are asking. Betts is a great player but he may just break a final arb-year record in 2020.

    Who out there would be willing to give up a starting OF, mid-rotation starter AND 2 top-100 prospects for just 1 year of a $30MM player?

    Aquino, Disco, India plus another minor piece seems about right. Even this seems too steep for the Reds in their current state; Betts will likely go to a team on the brink of the WS who need a final piece next season.

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    Re: Mookie Betts

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    I wonder if something like the following would work:

    Reds Get:
    Betts
    Porcello
    Jay Groome

    Red Sox Get:
    Winker/Aquino
    Mahle
    Iglesias

    The Reds take on Porcello's remaining 1 year $20M to lessen the cost of acquiring Betts. Winker or Aquino becomes a corner OF/DH for Boston and replaces Betts in the lineup, Mahle a rotation candidate, and Iglesias helps shore up a bad bullpen. I think the hangup would be on Mahle as I am sure they would want a better controllable arm, but it is going to be hard to get a controllable mid-rotation arm for 1 year of Betts alone.

    So the reds get an MVP 8 WAR player
    The red Sox 6th best overall prospect
    A 1 WAR vet pitcher


    And give up.

    A 1-2 WAR platoon Ofer w awful defense
    A fringe #5 starter with years of control
    And a .8 WAR reliever with 2 years left

  9. #6
    Moderator Plus Plus's Avatar
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    Re: Mookie Betts

    Quote Originally Posted by FBdive View Post
    So the reds get an MVP 8 WAR player
    The red Sox 6th best overall prospect
    A 1 WAR vet pitcher


    And give up.

    A 1-2 WAR platoon Ofer w awful defense
    A fringe #5 starter with years of control
    And a .8 WAR reliever with 2 years left
    And get under the luxury tax threshold, which is the reason Betts to the Reds is even a thought in the first place.

    You could play this same game with the Reds/Dodgers trade a year ago, and that happened.
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    Thus his team was punished
    Long live punishment
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    Cut back on booze and pizza?
    Good god man get a hold of yourself

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    Rojo Rijo (10-07-2019)

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    Re: Mookie Betts

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    Porcello is a free agent.
    Whoops. Replace him with Castillo or Pedroia then.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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    Re: Mookie Betts

    Quote Originally Posted by FBdive View Post
    So the reds get an MVP 8 WAR player
    The red Sox 6th best overall prospect
    A 1 WAR vet pitcher


    And give up.

    A 1-2 WAR platoon Ofer w awful defense
    A fringe #5 starter with years of control
    And a .8 WAR reliever with 2 years left
    And clear out $40M-$50M of salary. The fact that he is the 6th prospect in a bad system doesn't make him a good prospect all the sudden. He is a flyer guy at this point.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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  14. #9
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    Mookie Betts

    Reds can’t keep throwing away all of its youth for 1 or 2 year deals.

    With all we’ve given away in trade we only have Gray and Bauer to show for it.

    If you want to go for Betts, the Reds darn well better win it all because this farm wont produce another winner during the rest of the 2020’s...

    As a side point, when I see Betts and then other young players like Bellinger, Acuna, Soto, Judge, etc in the playoffs, it really make me put more blame on the Reds talent scouts or draft intelligencia. This org has really only struck gold with Larkin, Cueto, and Votto, and that’s in the last 30 years. Good orgs turn out such players every decade. Heck we dont even have a top 25 guy to offer for Betta even if we were “on the cusp”!

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  16. #10
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    Re: Mookie Betts

    If you can get Betts you do it and worry about the rest later (new contract).

    Obviously don't sell the farm but there aren't too many packages the Reds could put together that would upset me.

    For all of those prepared to chime in with the "why not just sign him as a FA next winter it won't cost any players" you need to understand the window that has opened with Gray, Bauer, and Castillo leading the rotation and the Reds chances of signing Mookie while competing on a even playing field with all the other teams are a heck of a lot smaller than they would be with him already in a Cincinnati uniform next year.

  17. #11
    Member RustyJ's Avatar
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    Re: Mookie Betts

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    the Reds chances of signing Mookie while competing on a even playing field with all the other teams are a heck of a lot smaller than they would be with him already in a Cincinnati uniform next year.
    Don’t agree there. The flagging FA market’s still pretty kind to players like Betts.

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    Re: Mookie Betts

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    And clear out $40M-$50M of salary. The fact that he is the 6th prospect in a bad system doesn't make him a good prospect all the sudden. He is a flyer guy at this point.
    Mahle and Winker and Aquino are all products of a weak farm system

    Why would someone overpay for them?

  19. #13
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Mookie Betts

    According to one source, the price is incredibly steep: Betts' replacement in the lineup, a mid-rotation starter under team control, and two top 100 prospects.
    That is a very steep asking price, one that the Reds can't pay.
    If the Red Sox want "now" help, it's just not a good fit.
    Reds don't have a mid-rotation starter under control to give up. (Disco only has 1 year left)
    Maybe we could rationalize that Winker is "the replacement in the lineup".
    Do the Reds have 2 "top 100" prospects? I don't think so.. maybe Aquino would be accepted as one of the "top 100" guys, maybe not.

    I don't think Mahle would interest them at all, doubtful they would want Inglesis either.

    Our only chance is if the Red Sox would be content to get a collection of kids.. no "right now" help.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: Mookie Betts

    I’d offer Bauer as the center piece, which should cut down on the rest of the package. I doubt anyone else can offer as good a starting pitcher.

    Bauer
    Winker
    Iglesias
    Last edited by 757690; 10-07-2019 at 12:13 PM.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

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  22. #15
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Mookie Betts

    My philosophy is that you acquire difference-makers, then figure out the margins later.

    Betts is a difference-maker.

    Acquire him without giving up Suarez, and they'll likely come out ahead.

    (That said, I'd be hesitant to give up Nick Senzel, Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Tyler Stephenson, or Jose Garcia.)

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