2020 Bullpen

[Kc61]

That's the main reason why I have been banging the no LTC to reliever drum the past few off-seasons. I'll make an exceptions for truly elite types.

Except a two year deal is sometimes necessary to sign the player.

So if a Jared Hughes has a great 2018 and declines in 2019, if you manage it correctly, there’s not much to lose at his modest salary level.

For most relievers, the second year is the issue. Only the big fish get three years.

[REDREAD]

Well if you watched the games you saw Garrett being a dominate reliever. The ops against him was .694. He made opposing hitters look like Barnhart. I think his overuse in the first half made him less effective in the second half. He also pitched better in high leverage vs low leverage. His fip was high because stranded runners on base.1.70 era and 3.21 fip in the first half last year 37ip

I feel pretty good about Garrett going into the season.. However, mth's point is still valid.
Lorenzen and Garrett have my confidence. Robert Stephenson has the makings of at least a solid middle reliever (maybe more). I don't have a lot of confidence in Inglesis, but maybe he bounces back.
Even if we consider those 4 guys as good.. that leaves 4 voids in the bullpen. One guy like Sims or Reed is ok as a mopup guy/ project.. But we really need to add 2-3 more arms (of at least quality middle relief) or the wheels are going to fall off again this year.

[Griffey012]

Except a two year deal is sometimes necessary to sign the player.

So if a Jared Hughes has a great 2018 and declines in 2019, if you manage it correctly, there’s not much to lose at his modest salary level.

For most relievers, the second year is the issue. Only the big fish get three years.

Look, we get it, you are jealous the Reds aren't the Rockies and don't have $35.5M tied up on bad relievers who were once given expensive LTCs, or maybe the Cardinals and their $20M in commitments to Brett Cecil and the ghost of Andrew Miller.

Who cares if we don’t sign the player if there's a solid chance they don't provide value out of the pen?

[Kc61]

Look, we get it

No, you don’t get it.

Reds signed Jared Hughes for two years, total of $4.5 million. They picked Hughes because he was a durable, high GB, low HR pitcher with extensive experience in the NL Central. And in 2018, he was excellent for Reds.

That kind of deal would be unavailable with a strict one-year per reliever policy.

[Griffey012]

No, you don’t get it.

Reds signed Jared Hughes for two years, total of $4.5 million. They picked Hughes because he was a durable, high GB, low HR pitcher with extensive experience in the NL Central. And in 2018, he was excellent for Reds.

That kind of deal would be unavailable with a strict one-year per reliever policy.

When I say LTC I mean multiple years with at least decent monetary outlays, I should have been more clear. $4.5M over 2 years is chump change, IMO. There have been a lot of people wanting the Reds to go out and upgrade the pen via free agency. And my policy is either get a top dog (elite arm) or find some value/flyer on the lower end of the FA spectrum, Hughes would have fallen into the latter. And plenty seem to chime in with push-back against that policy. This is the third or fourth off-season in a row where people want to spend some good coin on solid relievers even though it is a very risky maneuver, and maybe I am confusing you with others, apologies if so, but I believe you have been a pretty strong advocate of that as well.

We don't really know if Hughes could be had on a 1 year deal or not. He was just cut loose by the Brewers. Perhaps the Reds saw him as well undervalued by the market and determined it was a good risk to add the extra years. The odds of a reliever like Hughes become available on a 2 year $4.5M deal is pretty rare. Same goes for David Hernandez. When you get a guy who is a great fit, has essentially put up sub-3 ERA's over the past 4 years, and can be had on the very cheap, yeah you take the chance and go multiple years.

[Kc61]

I don’t see too many relief contracts in the middle range. Like, $5-6 million over three years. Reds certainly haven’t done that. Not that many relievers get more than two years, again rarely by Reds. True LTCs are mostly at the high end. All this makes sense.

The biggest issue in relief signings is careful analysis by the club. Hughes and Hernandez are good examples. Both faltered eventually, but there was overuse, and each did great in 2018. I don’t think it was an accident. Hughes in particular was a very good fit.

Reds will undoubtedly add, if only to fill innings lost with Hughes, Hernandez, Peralta. Looking forward to seeing their approach.

[Kingspoint]

Nobody should ever give a Reliever more than a 2-yr contract.