#2 Pick

[Kingspoint]

I've covered my concerns on Caglianone at #2 a few pages back - IF he is being taken at #2 only as a hitter, fine by me if his bat is worthy of that selection. But I am hugely against him being at #2 with any kind of expectation that he is bringing legit value as a two-way prospect - basically, if he is elevating as a bat over better bats because he arguably also profiles as potentially being a major league arm is bad process to me. That's just dumb from my perspective.

Keith Law's top 30 list from March 7 was pretty clear that in his view he should only be taken that high with bat in mind. So, does his bat profile alone make him worthy of #2 overall? I am still far, far from convinced of that.

I'm looking to see improvements from the College players between now and the draft.

[Rojo Rijo]

Cags with another 2 HR game last night.

[membengal]

2 HR game for Bazzana yesterday also.

[JCM11]

2 HR game for Bazzana yesterday also.

The big question about Bazzana coming into the season was HR power. So far he's hit 10 in 20 games after hitting 11 all of last season. He also has a 20% BB rate against a 10% SO rate. The only knock now will be the quality of opposition.

After 20 games Cags has cut his SO rate in half from his first two years from 18% down to 9%. If that holds you have think he's a top 5 pick.

[podgejeff_]

Stuff?

I mean Hagen Smith isn't short on stuff.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I mean Hagen Smith isn't short on stuff.

No doubt, but it's not in Burns' tier.

(Similar to Skenes and Lowder last year.)

[podgejeff_]

No doubt, but it's not in Burns' tier.

(Similar to Skenes and Lowder last year.)

Have you seen video of Smith's slider?

It's mean. Really mean.

Plus he's a lefty.

[JCM11]

Hagen Smith hits 98 with plus breaking pitches. I think as far as pure stuff goes he's ahead of Lowder.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Hagen Smith hits 98 with plus breaking pitches. I think as far as pure stuff goes he's ahead of Lowder.

I mean, maybe?

Burns is hitting 102+ with 23" of break on his offspeed stuff.



That's a step above.

[membengal]

Hagen Smith hits 98 with plus breaking pitches. I think as far as pure stuff goes he's ahead of Lowder.

Why are you comparing him to Lowder? We have Lowder already. The choice will be between him and Burns.

[JCM11]

Why are you comparing him to Lowder? We have Lowder already. The choice will be between him and Burns.

Why are you worried about who I make comparisons with? The suggestion was made that the gap between Smith and Burnes' stuff was equal to Skenes and Lowder last year and I disagreed because Smith is closer to Burns than Lowder was to Skenes in terms a raw stuff.

[membengal]

I'm not worried, I was wondering why you were comparing a guy already drafted to one still to be drafted when the question is between Burns and Smith. You clarified. Got it, you think Smith is better than Burns. Don't agree. But perhaps you are right. I also think you are underselling Burns' stuff for whatever reason.

[JCM11]

I don't think we're far off from 150 IP being looked at like 200 IP was 10 years ago. SP will be fungible similar to NFL running backs. Most playoff games are already turning into bullpen fests after 2 innings. For those reasons I want a star everyday player to be drafted by the Reds with this # 2 pick. Get a lineup cornerstone and draft some arms in later rounds.

[podgejeff_]

For the record, I don't know if I think there's a wrong choice in the Smith/Burns debate. I think I'd take Smith, but I certainly wouldn't question a preference for Burns. I might be influenced by watching Smith annihilate Bazzana's Oregon State squad for 17 Ks.

I really just asked the initial question to spark conversation.

[podgejeff_]

I don't think we're far off from 150 IP being looked at like 200 IP was 10 years ago. SP will be fungible similar to NFL running backs. Most playoff games are already turning into bullpen fests after 2 innings. For those reasons I want a star everyday player to be drafted by the Reds with this # 2 pick. Get a lineup cornerstone and draft some arms in later rounds.

Yeah, agreed. For me it's still 1. Condon 2. Cags.