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Thread: Griffey in 2004

  1. #16
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    or he'll be exposed as just a marginal HR hitter who strikes out way too much.
    Who just happens to gets on base at a .380 clip

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  3. #17
    Administrator GIK's Avatar
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    We should all hope for the 1998-2000 Griffey:

    .281 | 586 AB | 48 HR | 133 RBI | 342 TB

    and not the 2001-2003 Griffey:

    .271 | 242 AB | 14 HR | 38 RBI | 124 TB

  4. #18
    Member paulrichjr's Avatar
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    Originally posted by GIK
    We should all hope for the 1998-2000 Griffey:

    .281 | 586 AB | 48 HR | 133 RBI | 342 TB

    and not the 2001-2003 Griffey:

    .271 | 242 AB | 14 HR | 38 RBI | 124 TB
    WoW!!! Those numbers for 3 years are amazing. I never realized that they were that bad. Man he really has been in bad shape the last 3 years. I knew it but never saw the full 3 years on paper. Didn't he hit like 5 home runs right before he blew up this year? Maybe the last week or 2? That is amazing that throwing out that little blip he would have had less than 10 home runs over a bunch of games. I really feel sorry for this guy. I hope he turns into Mark McGwire after his 2 or 3 seasons of nothing.

    I'm betting on 38 home runs and 108 RBIs. .279 batting average but most importantly 140 games played.
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
    I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.

  5. #19
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    IMO "guessing" counting stats like RBI's is a complete shot in the dark, especially considering that the batting order is somewhat unknown, nor are we aware of Mileys preference for a #2 hitter (ball mover/speed or OB guy)

    A lineup that went Jimenez-Dunn-Griffey will trump a Jimenez-Larkin/SS- Griffey, furthermore a Jimenez-Dunn-Kearns-Griffey would provide more opps.

    TC, if the trio were to compile your predictions they would have accounted for 49% of the RBI's last year, as it is in post strike Reds land the Reds have averaged 712 rbi's a season, with highs of 820 in 1999 and low of 612 in 1997.

  6. #20
    Administrator GIK's Avatar
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    Originally posted by paulrichjr
    WoW!!! Those numbers for 3 years are amazing. I never realized that they were that bad. Man he really has been in bad shape the last 3 years. I knew it but never saw the full 3 years on paper. Didn't he hit like 5 home runs right before he blew up this year? Maybe the last week or 2? That is amazing that throwing out that little blip he would have had less than 10 home runs over a bunch of games. I really feel sorry for this guy. I hope he turns into Mark McGwire after his 2 or 3 seasons of nothing.

    I'm betting on 38 home runs and 108 RBIs. .279 batting average but most importantly 140 games played.
    Paul, those numbers are averaged for each set of those 3 years. The total numbers are:

    Code:
    '98-'00: .281 | 1759 AB | 144 HR | 398 RBI | 1025 TB
    '01-'03: .271 |  727 AB |  43 HR | 114 RBI |  372 TB

  7. #21
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    Originally posted by Team Clark
    154 Games. 42 HR's 133 RBI. Sit out 5 games with a tight Hammy in August. Junior will also hit .295 and have an OBP of .444. This is what the crystal ball says.

    Adam Dunn .248 47HR's and 116 RBI. 158 K's and 98 BB's.

    Kearns .311 28HR and 79 RBI. 131 Games played. Kearns goes down in August for a month.

    Griff and Kearns go to ALL Star Game.
    OBP is high for Jr. Beyond that, I think he does that.

    Dunn hits 35-40 HR with the rest of those numbers in the ballpark.

    Kearns hits 90 RBIs but everything else is ballpark too.

    Nice.

    Others.

    Jiminez bats .310 with a .380 OBP and scores 120 runs out of the leadoff spot

    Larkin bats .270 in about 400 ABs with 12-15 HR and 50 RBIs.

    Casey bats .290 with 20 HR and 75 RBI

    LaRue bats .240 with 20 HR in 200 AB

    Larson bats .250 with a .320 OBP and 20 HR in 500 AB

    Pena is your primary OF backup and gets 250 AB, due to a reasonably healthy year for everyone. Bats .230 with 10 HR, 30 BB and 60 Ks

    Freel is your primary IF backup. He gets 400 AB, much at SS when Jiminez plays there and Freel takes over 2B. He bats .280 with little power or walks but adds some speed and scrapiron tendancies to the club.

    I wouldn't dare project the pitching.

  8. #22
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Jiminez bats .310 with a .380 OBP and scores 120 runs out of the leadoff spot
    Fun facts.

    Reds since 1982 (post BRM)

    Code:
    
    CINCINNATI REDS
    SEASON
    1982-2003
    OBA displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    OBA vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    RUNS                          YEAR      R       OBA      OBA    
    1    Eric Davis               1987      120     .399     .060   
    2    Barry Larkin             1996      117     .410     .071   
    3    Barry Larkin             1999      108     .390     .039   
    4    Greg Vaughn              1999      104     .347    -.004   
    5    Sean Casey               1999      103     .399     .048   
    6    Ken Griffey Jr.          2000      100     .387     .036   
    7    Barry Larkin             1995       98     .394     .053   
    T8   Chris Sabo               1990       95     .343     .013   
    T8   Kal Daniels              1988       95     .397     .077   
    T10  Mike Cameron             1999       93     .357     .005   
    T10  Barry Larkin             1998       93     .397     .058   
    
    
    BRM Era

    Code:
    
    CINCINNATI REDS
    SEASON
    1970-1981
    OBA displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    OBA vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    RUNS                          YEAR      R       OBA      OBA    
    1    Pete Rose                1976      130     .404     .075   
    2    George Foster            1977      124     .382     .044   
    3    Joe Morgan               1972      122     .417     .091   
    4    Pete Rose                1970      120     .385     .045   
    5    Ken Griffey Sr.          1977      117     .389     .051   
    6    Joe Morgan               1973      116     .406     .074   
    7    Pete Rose                1973      115     .401     .069   
    T8   Joe Morgan               1976      113     .444     .115   
    T8   Joe Morgan               1977      113     .417     .080   
    T10  Bobby Tolan              1970      112     .384     .045   
    T10  Pete Rose                1975      112     .406     .070   
    
    
    

  9. #23
    Administrator GIK's Avatar
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    I predict for 2004:

    550 AB | .280 AVG | 41 HR | 111 RBI | 80 BB | 111 SO

  10. #24
    Administrator Boss-Hog's Avatar
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    LaRue bats .240 with 20 HR in 200 AB

  11. #25
    A Little to the Left Redsfaithful's Avatar
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    .270/.365/.530

    20-25 Home runs

    360 at bats
    We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.
    --Oscar Wilde

  12. #26
    Time is the Revelator. LvJ's Avatar
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    Griffey: .285, 43 HR, 140 RBI

    Kearns: .309, 26 HR, 132 RBI

    Dunn: .243, 31 HR, 79 RBI

    LaRue: .250, 22 HR, 82 RBI

    Larson: .265, 28 HR, 90 RBI

    Jimenez: .299, 17 HR, 66 RBI

    Casey: .314, 20 HR, 79 RBI

    What?
    Hide your power alleys; Hide your wife

  13. #27
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Originally posted by LvJ
    Griffey: .285, 43 HR, 140 RBI

    Kearns: .309, 26 HR, 132 RBI

    Dunn: .243, 31 HR, 79 RBI

    LaRue: .250, 22 HR, 82 RBI

    Larson: .265, 28 HR, 90 RBI

    Jimenez: .299, 17 HR, 66 RBI

    Casey: .314, 20 HR, 79 RBI

    What?
    That is a pretty good estimate and not far fetched, well maybe Larue is a bit of stretch, but the rest can easily do that. Looks like an offensive dynamo to me.

  14. #28
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Last year the Reds top 7 RBI guys accounted for 60% of the teams RBI's, if the top 7 Reds RBI guys were as LVJ predicts and the percentage stayed the same the Reds would have 1113 rbi's, you'd have to think there be about 30-60 unearned runs add that and you have say...1150 so then that would be 190 runs better last years Red Sox or the best Rockies year.

    The HR numbers add up to 187, the Reds have topped 200 HR's 3 times, 1956, 1999 and 2000. Think about 30 other HR's at the least from the bench and we'd have 217..... 4behind the 1956 team.

    About 7 runs and 1.33 HR a game

    I'd take that.
    Last edited by westofyou; 01-30-2004 at 08:53 PM.

  15. #29
    Member paulrichjr's Avatar
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    Originally posted by GIK
    Paul, those numbers are averaged for each set of those 3 years. The total numbers are:

    Code:
    '98-'00: .281 | 1759 AB | 144 HR | 398 RBI | 1025 TB
    '01-'03: .271 |  727 AB |  43 HR | 114 RBI |  372 TB
    Man I thought I was losing it... Which I guess I was. I kept thinking man this guy has really stunk. Well Ok thanks. I didn't look at the 98-00 numbers but instead just kept staring at those 01-03 numbers....
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
    I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.

  16. #30
    "Let's Roll" TeamBoone's Avatar
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    Don't forget... the pitching in the NL central is a whole lot better this year.
    "Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn


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