Pitching trade help

[Red Leader]

My current pitching staff is:

Freddy Garcia
Jamie Moyer
Joel Pineiro
Adam Eaton
Mike Mussina
Jon Lieber
Armando Benitez
Octavio Dotel
Arthur Rhodes

Categories are: W, L, CG, SV, HR allowed, K, ERA, WHIP.


Someone in my league proposed the following trade:

I give: SP Adam Eaton and RP Arthur Rhodes

I get: SP Johan Santana and RP Jorge Julio.

I obviously could use the upgrade at SP and don't think the drop off at RP will hurt me too much with Benitez and Dotel. What do you think? Good trade or not, and why? What do you think about Rhodes and Julio in particular?

[Johnny Footstool]

IMO, Santana isn't that much of an upgrade over Eaton. Eaton will have a much better WHIP and ERA, while Santana will post a few more wins and Ks.

[Red Leader]

2003 numbers:

Eaton: 9-12 183 IP, 20 HR, 146 K, 4.06 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Santana: 12-3 158.1 IP, 17 HR, 169 K, 3.07 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

So your saying that Eaton is going to maintain or even improve on his current numbers that he has posted this year already, and be much better than what he was last year?and that Santana will get worse or stay the same from what he has posted already this year, and be much worse than what he posted last year? ...I think Santana is clearly the better pitcher in all categories.

I'm curious as to what people think Rhodes and Julio's final numbers will look like...

Rhodes allowed 4 HR in 54.0 IP last year with 48 K's. He had a 4.17 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. He had 3 saves in a non-closer role for the Mariners. So far this year he had given up 4 HR in 12.0 IP and has a 5.25 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .314 against him this year.

Julio allowed 10 HR in 61.2 IP last year with 52 K's. He had a 4.38 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. He had 36 saves as the Orioles closer. The Orioles have improved this year. So far this year Julio has given up 1 HR in 12.0 IP and has 0.75 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .146 against him.

[Johnny Footstool]

So your saying that Eaton is going to maintain or even improve on his current numbers that he has posted this year already, and be much better than what he was last year?and that Santana will get worse or stay the same from what he has posted already this year, and be much worse than what he posted last year?

Pitchers don't always perform the way they did the previous season, especially young pitchers. There tends to be a lot of variation.

Eaton is in a new pitcher's park, and he's pitched exceptionally well this year. Santana has struggled somewhat (5 HR allowed in 35 IP).

Personally, I don't think the difference between Santana and Eaton (or between Rhodes and Julio, for that matter) is that great. The trade looks like a lateral move, IMO.