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Thread: Anybody Think O'Brien Pulled The Trigger Too Early?

  1. #16
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    Re: Anybody Think O'Brien Pulled The Trigger Too Early?

    if the Reds compete and if their weakness is pitching, then the trigger was pulled too early. This cannot be debated.

    so far, the Reds are competing and their weakness is pitching.

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  3. #17
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Anybody Think O'Brien Pulled The Trigger Too Early?

    Ah, Chris Reitsma, the latest greatest legend in our own minds that can only become so through the trading away of the below average starter and maybe average reliever away (what was that former third baseman's name?). If anyone really believes that we would be better than 30-21 (insert inflated "but we've had 10 blown saves" stat comment even though that counts games we ended up winning) with Reitsma, let me tell ya about this land deal I can do for ya. One part of the equation that keeps getting left out is that Ryan Wagner foiled the plan by not being the setup man. Todd Jones, who is obviously of less quality than Reitsma but is still getting the job done at a similar rate as Reitsma likely would in the same role (see 2002-2003 untimely longballs to cough up lead), ended up there by default, not design. He was an insurance policy we had to reluctantly cash in when Wagner failed. Remember, Wagner was just as effective in ST as he was last season, so Reitsma became expendable. Obviously hindsight tells us now that we could use Reitsma, but then we can also use Bong and Bubba going forward. Just because Bong and Bubba haven't come in and blown us away does not make this a bad deal, or pulling the trigger too soon. We took what was at the time a surplus (right handed setup man) to obtain something we desperately needed (near major league ready rotation prospects).

    I guess when it comes down to it, I am a bit confused by folks who on one hand call the man indecisive and then question if he pulled the trigger too soon on the one deal he did make. The next thing you know, someone will question whether we should have given Jimmy Haynes another chance.

  4. #18
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Anybody Think O'Brien Pulled The Trigger Too Early?

    My feeling was that DanO knew he couldn't bring back Reitsma for 2005.. So he figured
    he might as well trade him now.

    It's sad that he was likely forced into this course of action, but he probably got more
    than he would've if he waited until this winter when everyone in baseball knew the Reds
    were unwilling to pay Reitsma 1.5 million or whatever he's likely to make in arb.

    That said, I think the pitchers he got from Atlanta are pretty questionable. At the time,
    I assumed Bong would be an immediate contributor in the pen. Now I think the Reds are
    kind of smart to let both Bong and Nelso try to be starting pitchers, but ultimately the
    Reds might reach the same conclusion as Atlanta.. that both these prospects are best suited
    to middle relief. That's not necessarily bad, we need to have relief prospects as well,
    but it makes the trade less exciting than it was a few months ago.

    I do agree with Princeton though. If we contend this season, the Reitsma trade was a disaster,
    no question about it.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Anybody Think O'Brien Pulled The Trigger Too Early?

    I do agree with Princeton though. If we contend this season, the Reitsma trade was a disaster,
    no question about it.
    Even though this has been deemed undebatable, what the hey. Isn't this a classic case study for some win share analysis? If we contend minus Reitsma and without any contribution from those obtained in the deal this season, wouldn't one have to consider the difference between Reitsma and his replacement before making such a dogmatic assertion?

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    Re: Anybody Think O'Brien Pulled The Trigger Too Early?

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor
    Even though this has been deemed undebatable, what the hey. Isn't this a classic case study for some win share analysis? If we contend minus Reitsma and without any contribution from those obtained in the deal this season, wouldn't one have to consider the difference between Reitsma and his replacement before making such a dogmatic assertion?
    Redread use stats to determine a player move?

    If it happens let me know.

  7. #21
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    Re: Anybody Think O'Brien Pulled The Trigger Too Early?

    What traderumor said. The mistake the Red's FO made was putting too much stock in Wagner's success both in 2003 and March. (But, based on Ryan's numbers and mound presense, who can blame them?)

    Up until yesterday, Riedling was performing better than expected. So, between Jones and Riedling, "Reitsma's role" has been adequately replaced.

    Now, if Wagner can eventually come back and give the Reds 80% of what they originally expected from him, the Cincy bullpen should be all right.
    Last edited by gm; 06-01-2004 at 11:41 AM.
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    Re: Anybody Think O'Brien Pulled The Trigger Too Early?

    Quote Originally Posted by gm
    "Reitsma's role" has been adequately replaced.
    if Reitsma were here, Reith wouldn't be, plus Wagner's innings probably would have decreased. Assuming that CR has the same ERA as he does now for Atlanta, I figure that the run differential is about 10 runs. What does that translate to, maybe three victories? Given the closeness of the games, that seems a reasonable estimate if not an underestimate. Someone less partisan should figure that out.

    but I'd call three losses every two months "inadequate replacement"

  9. #23
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    Re: Anybody Think O'Brien Pulled The Trigger Too Early?

    if Reitsma were here, Reith wouldn't be, plus Wagner's innings probably would have decreased
    Not necessarily. Jones is the one who wouldn't be here. There wouldn't have been any reason to pick him up with Reitsma, Riedling, and Graves all in place.

    Wagner's pitched only 14.2 innings, which is about half as many as Riedling and Jones each and five less than Reith. Even if Reitsma had stayed, and pitched the same 25-30 innings that Jones has gotten, I don't think Wagner's innings would have decreased any.

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    Re: Anybody Think O'Brien Pulled The Trigger Too Early?

    Quote Originally Posted by Doc. Scott
    Jones is the one who wouldn't be here.
    he was already here

    and CR's presence might have made Jones more effective. I thought that I read that he has better results after a day of rest. CR's presence would have allowed more rest to occur.

    that'll also be a factor later in the year. The effective arms in this pen are throwing a lot of innings. CR would have reduced the weariness
    Last edited by princeton; 06-01-2004 at 12:03 PM.

  11. #25
    Lover of Trivialities Doc. Scott's Avatar
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    Re: Anybody Think O'Brien Pulled The Trigger Too Early?

    Yeah, but the transactions happened one day apart. It seems obvious that by this point, the Reitsma trade was almost done and O'Brien was thinking ahead.

    http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASAp...4&maj_team=cin
    ---
    Date Transactions

    03/26/04 Traded RHP Chris Reitsma to Atlanta for LHP Jung Keun Bong and RHP Bubba Nelson.
    03/25/04 Signed RHP Todd Jones to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training.
    ---

  12. #26
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    Re: Anybody Think O'Brien Pulled The Trigger Too Early?

    Quote Originally Posted by Doc. Scott
    Yeah, but the transactions happened one day apart. It seems obvious that by this point, the Reitsma trade was almost done and O'Brien was thinking ahead-
    you're asserting that he couldn't have both pitchers. If using CR's salary was the only way to pay Todd Jones, then you might have a point. But the Reds profess to having cash, so I don't buy it.

    This is not your best argument
    Last edited by princeton; 06-01-2004 at 12:20 PM.

  13. #27
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    Re: Anybody Think O'Brien Pulled The Trigger Too Early?

    Well, if Reitsma, Riedling, and Wagner were all going to be RH middle relievers, why would O'Brien have picked up Jones? Do you think he got Jones to come to the Reds' camp by telling him he'd pitch mop-up after Jones was doing well that spring with Tampa, a club that had space for him?

    As I remember on the 26th, the Reitsma trade was announced in the morning. The two transactions could have happened but hours apart. It just seems like a pretty simple line of thinking by O'Brien to me, given everything he'd said about building through youth and yadda, yadda, yadda prior to and since the Reitsma trade.

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    Re: Anybody Think O'Brien Pulled The Trigger Too Early?

    Quote Originally Posted by Doc. Scott
    Well, if Reitsma, Riedling, and Wagner were all going to be RH middle relievers, why would O'Brien have picked up Jones?.
    because he wanted to replace guys like Reith and Jimmy Haynes. Jones wants some saves, and with Graves and Reitsma in front he's not exactly blocked by Mariano Rivera and Billy Wagner

    the first was a good move. Whether the second one also was depends on whether we compete. A 3 game lead but a 10 run differential suggests at this time that it was not. We'll see what we think in July

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    Re: Anybody Think O'Brien Pulled The Trigger Too Early?

    because he wanted to replace guys like Reith and Jimmy Haynes. Jones wants some saves, and with Graves and Reitsma in front he's not exactly blocked by Mariano Rivera and Billy Wagner
    Exactly, so if O'Brien tells him it's only Graves and Riedling he has to beat out for saves instead of the trio of Graves/Riedling/Reitsma, then that's enough to make him give up a likely role in the Tampa mess for a comparable one in Cincinnati.

    Given the way O'Brien works (slowly), it seems impossible that he wouldn't have told Jones about the impending trade to get him to come over to Sarasota. Otherwise, if you're Todd and you want the best job possible, why do you leave a situation where you're gonna get to work in the later innings and maybe even save situations for one where you work in the 6th and 7th innings of blowouts?

  16. #30
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    Re: Anybody Think O'Brien Pulled The Trigger Too Early?

    Hindsight is 20/20, IIRC, few "objective" Red's commentators were expecting the team to be in first place on June 1.

    Now "the Reitsma deal looks bad because we're competing..." sounds like someone's revising their predictions, similar to Rosenthal and the other national "experts". Could the Red's bullpen depth be improved? Sure, if the FO was willing to pay 10 mil/year in contracts for their relievers like Bowden did. But those same spendy bullpenners were burned out by the end of June in previous seasons, because the Red's low-budget, retread rotation wasn't pitching past the 5th inning.

    "O'Brien's way" seems to be working. Gullett's getting the credit for the "pitch to contact" theory (even though Don's been around for 10 years, with poor results from his rotations in most seasons) But it doesn't matter how they're getting it done, or who gets the props. I've been driving the bandwagon since last July and it's gonna take more than "did O'Brien pull the trigger too soon on the Reitsma deal?" hand-wringing to rattle me off that perch.
    Last edited by gm; 06-01-2004 at 01:58 PM.
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