Anybody Think O'Brien Pulled The Trigger Too Early?

[princeton]

Now the Reitsma deal looks bad because we're competing

exactly. Thanks for admitting it

I'm happy to agree that this trade may work out to be the best thing to have done. If this juggernaut derails, either by injury or by rotation ineffectiveness, then it was the right move. Also, if either Bong or Nelson shore up the ineffective rotation, it could work out. I certainly took note of Nelson's great game last week

but if the juggernaut remains on track, only to be slowed by the overwrought bullpen while Reitsma remains effective, then it wasn't the correct move.

If we miss the playoffs by three games, for instance-- it's probably easy to extrapolate three W's to Reitsma

Time will tell. Me, I don't think that we'll remain competitive because of the starters. Still, I'd have waited a while to see what time would show. You could have dealt Reitsma in July, albeit for less return. But less return is OK because I never want to waste a competitive season. That, you never get back

[REDREAD]

Redread use stats to determine a player move?

If it happens let me know.

Well, if we consider we are going to get zilch or minimal contribution from the 2 prospects this year,
then Reitsma's win shares or whatever is obviously larger.

Given how poorly Bong and Nelson are doing in AAA, I'm not sure either will become as
good of a middle reliever as Reitsma. In other words, I'm not sure the Reds even
make out long term in this deal.

Of course, since Allen and Dano's "plan" was to throw in the towel this year, I can
see why DanO tried to get what he thought was the best deal for Reitsma. Not saying
it was a good or bad move, but I can see his thought process.

[1990WorldChamps]

Imagine this team with both Reitsma and Williamson in the BP. How much is Willie making this year?

[REDREAD]

Well, if Reitsma, Riedling, and Wagner were all going to be RH middle relievers, why would O'Brien have picked up Jones? Do you think he got Jones to come to the Reds' camp by telling him he'd pitch mop-up after Jones was doing well that spring with Tampa, a club that had space for him?

As I remember on the 26th, the Reitsma trade was announced in the morning. The two transactions could have happened but hours apart. It just seems like a pretty simple line of thinking by O'Brien to me, given everything he'd said about building through youth and yadda, yadda, yadda prior to and since the Reitsma trade.

On the other hand, DanO SHOULD"VE been looking for more bullpen help all winter. I know the party line was "the bullpen will be just fine",
but any pen with Norton and Reith (with Reitsma and Reidling being shopped),
should've had some vet filler like Jones added.

I do see your point though.. without the Reitsma trade, DanO might've been
too lazy to look for more bullpen help. At the same time, I think you can't
justify the Reitsma trade by counting the Jones signing as a benefit. That
move could've been made independently.

[QUOTE=Doc. Scott]Exactly, so if O'Brien tells him it's only Graves and Riedling he has to beat out for saves instead of the trio of Graves/Riedling/Reitsma, then that's enough to make him give up a likely role in the Tampa mess for a comparable one in Cincinnati.
QUOTE]

IIRC, wasn't Jones CUT by Tampa.. The dude was desparately looking for a job. I don't think he was in a position to be picky about saves.. Think about it. In spring training, it was very unlikely
he'd get saves with Wagner and Graves in front of him. It's very likely if Jones
didn't sign with Cincy, he'd be unemployed now.

Plus, looking at the stats (just for you WOY), Reitsma is a better pitcher.

Reitsma 28 ip; 29 hit; 5 bb; 16 K; whip 1.21; era 2.57
Jones 29.1 IP; 25 hit; 14 BB; 23k; whip 1.33; era 4.30

[westofyou]

Given how poorly Bong and Nelson are doing in AAA, I'm not sure either will become as good of a middle reliever as Reitsma. In other words, I'm not sure the Reds even make out long term in this deal.

They're younger, they're starters and both have decent K to BB ratio.

But please continue to dump on them based on the guy they replaced, the world of baseball does not always exist in the vacum of the moment.

[gm]

[QUOTE=princeton} Me, I don't think that we'll remain competitive because of the starters. Still, I'd have waited a while to see what time would show. You could have dealt Reitsma in July, albeit for less return. [/QUOTE]


If you want to employ hindsight, don't let me stop you. Like traderumor said "at the time of the deal" it was the right decision. If you want to cite "O'Binder" for not expecting the Reds to be competitive and for overestimating Ryan Wagner, go right ahead. DanO's getting paid to be "the target of second-guessing" If you guess wrong, it's nothing more than free advice for Red's fans to take or leave. (IIRC, you called the Reitsma "flip" a day or so before it happened, you must have felt it was a reasonable action to take, at the time)

My take is that O'Brien covered his Reitsma "hole" by acquiring Jones. So far, so good. Now you want to eat your cake and have it, too. It's much too easy to play "Monday morning GM" two months down the road

[traderumor]

Imagine this team with both Reitsma and Williamson in the BP. How much is Willie making this year?

We did, for two years.

Princeton, maybe I misread your post, but Jones wasn't considering alternatives in Tampa, they let him go. And it was blatantly obvious that Jones was a pawn in the Reitsma deal. I'm not saying that was the trigger to let OB feel more comfortable with the deal, but it was clear that he was snatched up knowing we were soon in need of a righty arm in the bullpen.

REDREAD,

Bong and Bubba (sounds like a low budget version of Cheech and Chong) aren't the ones to consider for the effect of Reitsma's departure, it would be his replacement(s), which are right now Jones and Riedling. I think if you throw those numbers in the pot, Princeton's 10 run estimate is a bit on the high side considering that Jones/Riedling have been serviceable. Hopefully Riedling realizes soon that he is starting to pitch like the rest of his career in his last few outings and remembers what he was doing that wasn't like the rest of his career for the rest of this season. Then, the Reitsma effect will be a non-issue. Even so, right now it would seem to be a wash. Our bullpen was ranked 9th in ERA and 10th in WHIP IIRC going into yesterday, and I'm not sure that one could plug in Reitsma's numbers for Jones (not Reith) and change that ranking much, if at all.

[1990WorldChamps]

We did, for two years.

Actually no, we did not. The differences are clear, but to summarize for those who have not been paying attention: Casey, Griffey, Dunn, Lidle, Wilson, Acevedo, Castro. These players are playing their best baseball in 3 years this year, in some cases by far. This is clearly not last years team (or the prior year). If you fail to see how Willie and Reitsma could help THIS team, well then I can't help you.

[Doc. Scott]

Yeah, I agree with traderumor. I don't think the difference between Jones and Reitsma is three wins. Yes, Reitsma is better, with more upside. No argument there at all.

But if there's only six earned runs' difference between the two, that's only one win, isn't it? Maybe two?

The bullpen does indeed miss Reitsma somewhat. But as the season progresses, I think you're going to see that win gap narrow somewhat. For the record, I think the dropoff from White/Heredia to Norton/Matthews has been just as costly for the Reds.

[1990WorldChamps]

What did they get for Heredia?

[traderumor]

Actually no, we did not. The differences are clear, but to summarize for those who have not been paying attention: Casey, Griffey, Dunn, Lidle, Wilson, Acevedo, Castro. These players are playing their best baseball in 3 years this year, in some cases by far. This is clearly not last years team (or the prior year). If you fail to see how Willie and Reitsma could help THIS team, well then I can't help you.

The fatal flaw is the assumption that Willy and Reitsma (on the DL last I checked, but then I'm just barely paying attention ) would perform the same or better while the rest of the crew you mentioned has improved. Maybe they would be putting up numbers like Wagner, Bong, and Bubba with the "pitch to contact" motif. The funny thing about this game is that you finally get guys performing back to expectations, and then others you counted on perform below expecations. That's why "if-dog-rabbit" trails can only go so far. For me, this one's gone far enough.

[REDREAD]

Bong and Bubba (sounds like a low budget version of Cheech and Chong) aren't the ones to consider for the effect of Reitsma's departure, it would be his replacement(s), which are right now Jones and Riedling.

I guess it all depends on your point of view.. I agree with Princeton though. Reitsma's
replacement is really Reith, Norton, or Valentine. Because if Reitsma was still here,
one of those guys would be cut.

I mean, if we traded Casey and wily Mo today, and moved Dunn to 1b and Romano to LF,
who is technically Casey's replacement? I say it's Romano, but I guess some would
say Dunn is the "replacement", so we really didn't lose anything by trading Casey...

They're younger, they're starters and both have decent K to BB ratio.

But please continue to dump on them based on the guy they replaced, the world of baseball does not always exist in the vacum of the moment.

But they are both far from sure things... that's what I'm saying. Just like very few
people realized at the time that the Michael Tucker trade was horrible, despite getting
2 "arms".. More people realized the Williamson trade was horrible, but I guess it is the nature
of being a fan to believe that all the prospects will work out ok.

The Reitsma trade might work out ok.. but in reality, the Braves considered both those
guys to be future bullpenners. (they had both of them in the pen, despite the fact that
the Braves also need starting pitching prospects in the pipeline too).
If we can get a solid 3-4 years of bullpen work between both of those guys, it's still an
ok trade. If we get zilch, it obviously a bad trade .. like Neagle trade.. that was pretty much zilch as Wily Mo isn't
likely to get significant playing time. Even if the prospects are young, there is still risk..

At the time of the trade, I was hoping Bong was at the level to give us immediate contribution.
That would've assured us of at least getting some value out of the trade. That's all I'm
saying.

But you can't deny they have been struggling for the most part in AAA. That's all I said.
I never said they were crap. I just said they've been struggling and more than likely will
be bullpenners.

[1990WorldChamps]

The fatal flaw is the assumption that Willy and Reitsma (on the DL last I checked, but then I'm just barely paying attention ) would perform the same or better while the rest of the crew you mentioned has improved. Maybe they would be putting up numbers like Wagner, Bong, and Bubba with the "pitch to contact" motif.

Assuming that Willy and Chris will perform at their traditional levels is not a stretch or a flaw in my argument. The fact is that the crew I mentioned IS performing at those levels, and if you throw in some BP guys with the traditional performances of Willy and Reitsma then it would help the team. Pretty clear from where I stand.

"Maybe they would be putting up numbers like Wagner, Bong, and Bubba with the "pitch to contact" motif."

Doubtful.

[westofyou]

I never said they were crap.

No, you didn't.....you said everything else but that they were crap, eschewing their age, the organizations lack of starters ect....

Looking at the bottom line and assuming that garbage was gotten and gold was given away.

Like I said the world of baseball isn't this past 2 months or the 2 months after this, time will tell what happens and your love and overestimation of the cost of middle relief will continue.

I'm sure when Reitsma was obtained for Bichette you poo pooed his career and his broken arm and chance for success.

Many did at the time.

[creek14]

Reitsma (on the DL last I checked, but then I'm just barely paying attention )

Maybe you should pay attention. That Reitsma 2.02 ERA in May looked pretty good.

Notes: Stellar setup men
Gryboski, Reitsma helping Smoltz do his thing
By Pierre Moussette / Special to MLB.com

MONTREAL -- Behind every star closer there is one or more quality setup men. While the hold is certainly not nearly as glamorous as the save, Atlanta relievers Chris Reitsma and Kevin Gryboski have done yeomen's work in paving the way for stopper John Smoltz.

"Reitsma's been our go-to guy in the eighth inning to get us to Smoltz," pitching coach Leo Mazzone said. "We've got Gryboski for the seventh and Reitsma for the eighth. What we like about Reitsma is it doesn't matter who's hitting in the lineup because he's got the pitches to offset whether they are left-handed or right-handed."

So far, Reitsma has enjoyed working under Cox and Mazzone.

"It's been good," Reitsma said. "The two months have gone by like a week. They've plugged me in; they've used me quite a bit. I'm just trying to do the best I can every time I go out there with the role they've given me and I'm enjoying myself -- things are good."

The former Reds starter had an ERA of 4.52 in three losing seasons in Cincinnati. Upon his arrival in Atlanta, Mazzone preached his mantra of location, location, location, and it seems to have revived the right-hander's career.

"It's unbelievable but the simple thing is the consistency of trying to own a down-and-away strike with the fastball," he said. "When you practice with them that's the most difficult thing to do, so we spend all our time practicing that particular pitch in that particular area."

The strategy of keeping the ball down has obviously worked well in the past and continues to do so. Only the St. Louis Cardinals obtain a higher percentage of their outs via the ground ball, and the Braves' staff ERA is fourth in the NL.

"He just emphasizes the down-and-away strike, being in the zone down, being aggressive all the time and being ahead," Reitsma said of his pitching coach's philosophy. "It's nothing new from what I've heard before, it's just that he's very focussed and very intent on that. And obviously he's had a lot of good pitchers under him and a lot of success. You listen to him and try to keep things simple -- I think that's the key."

On the whole, Mazzone is pleased with the performance of his staff so far and sees plenty of opportunity for even better results the rest of the way.

"Our pitching staff has come together pretty good," Mazzone added. "We have a chance to have a really solid rotation and our bullpen has been really good with Alfonseca pitching extremely well."