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Thread: Stuck in reverse

  1. #31
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Quote Originally Posted by guernsey
    Now, if we expect past performance to project future performance (and I wish updated PECOTA forecasts based on '04 data were available) the four pitchers most likely to give bang for the buck, IMO, are Odalis Perez, Brad Radke, Russ Ortiz and Matt Clement.
    Agreed. Definitely that's the right pond to go fishing in. Radke's liable to cost the most out of the group so he's the least likely to go to a smaller market team (unless of course the Twins keep him).
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  3. #32
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Of course his pricetag went up after '04, just as Dunn knew it would. He had absolutely no reason to sign a LTC following his worst professional season ('03). He had hit 50 HRs in a season before, and he knew he was good enough to do it again. Going from Dunn saying he would like to sign a long term deal to Dunn signing a long term deal that would cost him millions is a leap in logic that's far too long to be reasonable.
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  4. #33
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Quote Originally Posted by guernsey
    Of course his pricetag went up after '04, just as Dunn knew it would. He had absolutely no reason to sign a LTC following his worst professional season ('03). He had hit 50 HRs in a season before, and he knew he was good enough to do it again. Going from Dunn saying he would like to sign a long term deal to Dunn signing a long term deal that would cost him millions is a leap in logic that's far too long to be reasonable.
    The Indians, Rangers, A's and Blue Jays all have managed to sign very good young players to long-term contracts. Yet somehow the Reds can't?

    That reeks of excusifying to me.
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  5. #34
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    I've got some extraterrestial property that might interest you too.

    This is the exact same plan as develop Jose Acevedo and Aaron Harang plus Cory Lidle and Paul Wilson to eat innings. You saw how well it worked -- absolute, bloody mess (5.08 combined ERA). Keep doing it and I can tell you with near absolute certainty how well it's going to work.

    It was? Those guys were never known except maybe for Lidle to eat innings "seasonally" however, and I think we all knew that. Fillers do what they do, take as many innings as they can and eat them why younger pitchers mature and get collected down in the minors. The staff DanO had was a remanent and you make it seem like O'brien has been at it 3 years.

    As for Moseley, he's never been allowed to succeed. The Reds have undone him with a promotion everytime he's starting to roll. IMO it's turned him into a guy who doesn't trust his stuff because he's rarely been mature enough to compete at his given level. It's entirely possible Dustin would be a different pitcher, more of a power pitcher had the Reds ever allowed him to settle in and develop those skills. Now you're acting as if he'll rediscover something he was never allowed to find in the first place and that if he doesn't do that, then the Reds shouldn't be held accountable. That's how you go two decades without developing a starting pitcher worth a bucket of spit.
    Again, did Dustin hold his own in AAA? yep. Was he a good pitcher in AAA. Nope. But that is why he will be going back to prove just that. All I said was that his experience in AAA will help him understand what he needs to tackle to be a good pitcher this season in AAA ball, a cup of coffee minor league style. Enough of the sob stories how the awfull Reds organization never gave poor little Dustin the chance to succeed. To me he is a success with the talent he has.

  6. #35
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    I happen to think Clement will be a good pitcher the next three to four years based on his numbers over the past three years
    He is 30, making it somewhat risky. He had been injury free until the end of this season

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    You have to start somewhere. You can't build a rotation overnight, but you can take the money you've got (and the Reds easily have the $7M-$8M it will take to get Clement) in order to lay a foundation.
    True but I think the Reds will be hesitant to invest long term with that money to Jr sitting out there in 2007 and 2008. It makes them unlikely to sign any FA who they will owe money to in those years.

  7. #36
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    The only way a small market team can successfully use free agency is to plug a hole. Even if the Reds were to sign a free agent starter it will take a LOT more than to make them competetive in 2005. They would still need big years from a number of the young pitchers.

    For the Reds to have any asuurance of competing in 2005 they would need to sign 4-5 free agent pitchers for the rotation and the pen.

  8. #37
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    The Griffey contract is going down as one of the worst disasters in Reds history. 12.5 million of dead payroll :dflynn:

    You could have a 60 million dollar payroll and it would only really be 47.5. A 70 million dollar payroll and it would only be 57.5.

    Bowden should be real proud of himself.

  9. #38
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Quote Originally Posted by Aronchis
    Enough of the sob stories how the awfull Reds organization never gave poor little Dustin the chance to succeed.
    Dumb handling is dumb handling. They haven't set up Moseley for success and they're likely to reap the harvest of what they've sown.

    There's no reason why Moseley couldn't be as good as Ryan Madson, the current poster boy for sane handling and gradual development. There's another way to do it and that other way can work. What the Reds have been doing, that doesn't work.


    Quote Originally Posted by Aronchis
    The staff DanO had was a remanent and you make it seem like O'brien has been at it 3 years.
    DanO's fault is that he hasn't taken appropriate steps to start addressing the problem. I don't blame him for what he inherited. Though if you recognize that the 2004 staff was organized on a San Andreas Fault, then I will suggest carbon copying the model in 2005 is pretty boneheaded.
    Last edited by M2; 10-19-2004 at 11:09 AM.
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  10. #39
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    The Griffey contract is going down as one of the worst disasters in Reds history. 12.5 million of dead payroll

    You could have a 60 million dollar payroll and it would only really be 47.5. A 70 million dollar payroll and it would only be 57.5.

    Bowden should be real proud of himself.
    Interestingly enough, the Griffey contract- at the time- was a real value. The Larkin deal (the one that Bowden didn't want), was a killer because it assumed that a 37-year old Shortstop would be in the upper echelon of MLB players at his position.

    Small market teams can deal with 10+ million dollar mistakes (see: Dye, Jermaine)- if they can draft and develop pitching internally. But they can't a 10+ million dollar mistake AND a 9 million dollar mistake.

    Bowden's legacy is his inability to draft and develop pitching- not the Griffey contract.

    And now we have Dan O'Brien. Considering his acquisitions and draft strategy, is there a singular reason that we perceive he's going to revitalize the Reds' organization during his tenure?

    He had an entire offseason to bring in talent- both high and low priced talent. He gave us Cory Lidle (who was horrible), Todd Jones (who was good), and an additional bunch of crud. He failed to convert a career below-average MLB pitcher to anything (Wilson) at the trade deadline. He presided over one of the worst pitching staffs in Reds history- even though he had enough time to incorporate dramatic influences. And, according the the Reds, O'Brien had the PayFlex to do it after the salary purge of 2003.

    As M2 aptly stated, I don't blame O'Brien for the performance of what he inherited. What I blame him for is an inability to make the Reds better via his mechanizations. Right now, you blame Bowden for his perceived failures. But the fact is that Dan O'Brien is living off Bowden's successes while doing nothing to put his positive stamp on the organization.

    And frankly, considering that he inherited 9M in unspent PayFlex from the cessation of the 2001 Larkin deal, that's saying a lot.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  11. #40
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Quote Originally Posted by Aronchis
    The Griffey contract is going down as one of the worst disasters in Reds history. 12.5 million of dead payroll :dflynn:

    You could have a 60 million dollar payroll and it would only really be 47.5. A 70 million dollar payroll and it would only be 57.5.

    Bowden should be real proud of himself.
    I've never cricitized Bowden for the Griffey contract. At the time the Reds signed Junior he was a 30 year old Gold Glove centerfielder who had hit 49, 56, 56 and 48 HRs in his four most recent seasons. Except for the 1995 season he had been virtually injury free. Nobody expected his body to collapse. I would have made the trade too.
    The Reds front office, be it Bowden, Lindner, Allen or O'Brien, have had many failures and stupid moves, including signing the soon to be 37 year old Barry Larkin to a three year, $27,000,000 contract in 2000 and the inability and/or refusal to sign or develop any starting pitching, but the Griffey acquisition was a bad move only with 20-20 hindsight.
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  12. #41
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsBaron
    I've never cricitized Bowden for the Griffey contract. At the time the Reds signed Junior he was a 30 year old Gold Glove centerfielder who had hit 49, 56, 56 and 48 HRs in his four most recent seasons. Except for the 1995 season he had been virtually injury free. Nobody expected his body to collapse. I would have made the trade too.
    The Reds front office, be it Bowden, Lindner, Allen or O'Brien, have had many failures and stupid moves, including signing the soon to be 37 year old Barry Larkin to a three year, $27,000,000 contract in 2000 and the inability and/or refusal to sign or develop any starting pitching, but the Griffey acquisition was a bad move only with 20-20 hindsight.
    You should. Giving Griffey a 9 year contract was really stupid, even for Bowden. Not only would Griffey be really old at the end of his contract, but signs of physical decline were there in 1999. At best Bowden should have submitted that by Griffey's mid-30's, he may have been finished.

    The contract has hurt the Reds because since 2001 because they have alot of dead payroll to deal with every year without the returned production of a "superstar" to pay it off. A lesser contract would have the light at the end of the tunnel at least near.

  13. #42
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Quote Originally Posted by guernsey
    Sure, Dunn would like to sign a long term deal - on his terms. Speculating that he would sign a contract that would save the Reds millions is just that, speculation. And common sense says he wouldn't.
    the question I have would be: are you a Reds fan because you're defeatist, or are you defeatist because you're a Reds fan?

    and why do I have to be a Reds fan?

  14. #43
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Another thing to consider about Clement though.

    Don't you think that if the Reds signed Clement, it would bring a barrage of
    ticket sales, similiar to Vaughn?

    Reds' fans aren't stupid. They know Clement will make a big difference in the W-L.
    It probably won't be enough to make the Reds contend in 2005, but it brings them closer.
    Gives them some legitimacy. And M2 is right, it is financially feasible.

    Now I disagree with trading Jimmeniz unless we get a real good return (and I doubt he
    would fetch such a return), BUT if that gives us money to make a Clement deal work, sign
    me up.

    This team made a ton of money this year. They have the means to sign Clement to a 3-4 year
    deal if they wanted to. It seems like the easiest (and relatively cost efficent way) to
    finally get the #1 pitcher we need.

    And if the Reds could somehow get a solid #2/legit #3 type and a couple bullpen arms, they
    at least have a chance to be in the 'if all stars align, we'll contend' scenerio.
    As the team stands now, there's a zero chance of contending next year.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  15. #44
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD
    Another thing to consider about Clement though.

    Don't you think that if the Reds signed Clement, it would bring a barrage of
    ticket sales, similiar to Vaughn?
    I'd say no because offense sells here, not pitching. Attendance in 1999 wasn' that great until September. The Vaughn trade may have temporarily spiked ticket sales but it was more likely people who would have bought tickets eventually.
    Last edited by Chip R; 10-19-2004 at 12:03 PM.
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  16. #45
    "Let's Roll" TeamBoone's Avatar
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R
    Attendance in 1999 wasn' that great until September. The Vaughn trade may have temporarily spiked ticket sales but it was more likely people who would have bought tickets eventually.
    Heck, when the Reds were doing well this past season, the fans were coming out in droves.

    Regarding ticket sales in 1999... my take (right or wrong) is that fans were still extremely disgruntled about the strike. Had that 1999 team been playing just as sucessfully in 2004, I think you'd have seen a huge spike in attendance much earlier in the season.
    "Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn


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