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Thread: Stuck in reverse

  1. #16
    Member red-in-la's Avatar
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    M2, you are right in that I know of one team who wishes they had had Jimenez instead of what they had at 2B.....the Cubbies. I suggested some time ago that the Reds try to get a young hard thrower from them for Jimenez.
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  3. #17
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Quote Originally Posted by wheels
    I don't know if we can sure Kearns is gonna be hurt again.

    For one, he's young, so he can recover from injuries faster than a guy in his thirties.
    Secondly, I'm not so sure his injuries are the type that will recur, or be nagging. His shoulder? Possibly, but that was cause by trauma, so if he's fully recovered from surgery he should be okay.
    He doesn't seem to have gimpy knees just yet, or a balky hamstring, or nagging back problems.

    Maybe I'm being overly optimistic (me? nawwwww..), but if he can avoid bad luck, or collisions with three hundred pound relief pitchers, he can certainly put a whole healthy season together. Of course, I'm the overly optimistic one.

    What do you think about the third base experiment?

    Four years and running on Austin and injuries. I'm not saying he can't have a healthy season here and there, but I've got this sneaking suspicion Austin's not going to have a healthy career. He's not just sort of brittle. He's exceptionally brittle.

    If the Reds shift him to 3B it strikes me as desperate, stupid (they've got a very good young 3B prospect knocking on the door and some other short-term options to boot) and ill-conceived (Austin's never played the position in a professional game, wasn't considered a good 3B when he was drafted and more than likely will break himself in half trying to play a position at which he's got little to no skills). Austin's an excellent RF, a prototype RF. Play him in RF. I understand the Reds have one too many starting OFs, but Kearn's to 3B strikes me as the worst possible solution. Either trade one away or bench Jr. Yep, I said bench Jr. Play the kids and if you work a deal for one, then Jr. gets back in the game.
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  4. #18
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Four years and running on Austin and injuries. I'm not saying he can't have a healthy season here and there, but I've got this sneaking suspicion Austin's not going to have a healthy career. He's not just sort of brittle. He's exceptionally brittle.

    If the Reds shift him to 3B it strikes me as desperate, stupid (they've got a very good young 3B prospect knocking on the door and some other short-term options to boot) and ill-conceived (Austin's never played the position in a professional game, wasn't considered a good 3B when he was drafted and more than likely will break himself in half trying to play a position at which he's got little to no skills). Austin's an excellent RF, a prototype RF. Play him in RF. I understand the Reds have one too many starting OFs, but Kearn's to 3B strikes me as the worst possible solution. Either trade one away or bench Jr. Yep, I said bench Jr. Play the kids and if you work a deal for one, then Jr. gets back in the game.
    Some guys just are not durable. For all his talents, Eric Davis was never blessed with durability. For all his limits, Pete Rose was durable. Kearns is still young, but his injury history is discouraging.
    As for Junior, I posted a few days ago that he should now be the number 4 outfielder on the Reds. Absent a trade, my 2005 lineup would have an outfield of Dunn, Pena and Kearns, and I wouldn't make a trade solely to create a spot in the lineup for a guy who probably will not be healthy enough to play more than half of the time.
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."

  5. #19
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsBaron
    Some guys just are not durable. For all his talents, Eric Davis was never blessed with durability. For all his limits, Pete Rose was durable. Kearns is still young, but his injury history is discouraging.
    As for Junior, I posted a few days ago that he should now be the number 4 outfielder on the Reds. Absent a trade, my 2005 lineup would have an outfield of Dunn, Pena and Kearns, and I wouldn't make a trade solely to create a spot in the lineup for a guy who probably will not be healthy enough to play more than half of the time.
    Agreed completely.

    Good point on Davis, who was far more durable than Kearns has been to date. That's what scares me about Austin.
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  6. #20
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Austin Kearns=Kal Daniels
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  7. #21
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    That brings us to Dunn. 2004 confirmed what many of us knew -- that he's fabulous. The problem is he just whacked 46 HR (with a .956 OPS) right before his first arbitration season. Record awards are sure to follow. The Reds, with an ounce of foresight, could have locked him up prior to season and saved themselves millions. However the Reds continue to let things happen to them rather than making the sort of aggressive moves it's going to take to rebuild the franchise into something good. Small market franchises simply cannot allow the course of events to wash over them.
    That assumes, of course, that Dunn would have been willing to sign a LTC coming off of a down year. I've never met him, but sportwriters portray him as someone who is confident in his ability. I think if the Reds had approached him with a LTC last offseason that would have saved the Reds millions of dollars, his reaction would have been, "No thanks, I'll go year-to-year until I have my breakout season, then we'll talk LTC."
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  8. #22
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Awww...Shucks. I do agree with you guys on Kearns. I really do.

    But I'm gonna go ahead and believe (one last time!) that he's gonna put together a full season.

    I need this one, guys. I got nothing else.

    One other thing. I'll bet dollars to donuts that they give Paul Wilson three years and 4.5 Million. I'll also be that there will be some people on this board that are happy about it.

    Talk about stuck in reverse.
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

  9. #23
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Quote Originally Posted by wheels
    One other thing. I'll bet dollars to donuts that they give Paul Wilson three years and 4.5 Million. I'll also be that there will be some people on this board that are happy about it.
    There's a good chance that you're right. Though if they do, then I'm taking the position that Dan O'Brien can't be fired soon enough. That decision would be akin to leading a herd of ankylosaurs into the tar pits.

    guernsey, IIRC Dunn's stated numerous times in the past that he'd like to sign a long-term deal. And while we can speculate what his answer may have been had the Reds approached, the central problem is the team didn't approach him.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  10. #24
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Man, if only I had a dollar for every Redszone poster who insisted the pitching staff at the end of 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 and now I guess 2004 would be better if it comes back to start the next season. I'd own an island in the Caribbean right now with enough cash leftover to put up a hurricane-proof villa.

    The Reds had a 5.54 ERA and .858 OPS against in September, which, miraculously, was worse than the team's overall numbers for the season. So the collection of never-wases and never-will-bes that finished the season actually managed to do worse against lesser competition than the pile of detritus that was in place for most of the season. Bad pitching recognition skills are needed and turning up your nose at a good pitcher who fits the budget will only buy you more of the same. Banking on improving the current group is like substituting Sam Kinison for Eliza Doolittle and thinking you've got a potential society girl.

    Jiminez: Good plan, pay him money to play a position you can cover with a less expensive player in what promises to be an uncompetitve year and then give him away for nothing after the season. I like Jiminez, but he might be able to fetch you a long-term piece of the puzzle right now. Maybe he can't. If that's the case, keep him and see what he's worth in July. But you once again seem to be advocating a do-nothing policy where the Reds lay around and continue to be a victim of circumstances. I've got a 21st Century's worth of evidence that tells me what a lousy idea that is.

    And only a Reds fans could construe four starts in which a pitcher allows more than a hit an inning while posting a K/9 of 4.26 as a strong finish. Moseley had the at-em ball working in his final four starts. Dustin cannot pitch like that and have any hope of success over the long haul. He never even sort of mastered AAA this past season and any good habits he might have developed pitching against an appropriate level of competition for a full season (something he's never done) got flushed with yet another pointless promotion courtesy of a desperate, pitching-incompetent organization.
    The Bullpen sucked through falling productivity and poor quality such as Van Pimpel. You are going to have a high ERA but the Starters were better in 2004 than 2003. Get a 50% better bullpen and you have a better staff WITHOUT ANY starting pitching upgrades. You get some starting pitching develpment out of Hudson and Claussen plus a inning eating starter, the staff goes from real bad to at least average. Enough for playoffs? Probably not, but closing in.

    The Reds staff isn't "coming" together into known quality, but young pitchers will be put in place, especially in the Bullpen where it can happen quickly. Guys mature, old orders and ended. Rotations take a bit longer unless somebody like Hudson blows up as a late bloomer. But I think we know that.

    Again, your basing Moseley's starts on his first month when he wasn't mature wise ready to handle AAA pitching with ease. Listen, if the Moseley that pitched in July at AAA is still there this spring, he doesn't belong on a Major League squad. Doesn't matter if it was April or July, Moseley will have to improve enough to handle AAA hitters and then Major league hitters. Pitchers that have been hanging around AA(2 years for Dustin) at some point have to move on. The Reds challenged Dustin and he partly responded. Now they are sending him to Fall ball to get some more seasoning. Lets be real about Dustin, he improved at AA ball last season, now he shall improve at AAA ball this season. Maybe a cup of coffey to? Possibly. But crying when was moved up to continue his development, give him harder targets to face, is meek problems. I never said he was going to be called up or rushed to the Majors, but that is the way you are responding.

  11. #25
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    FA starting pitchers (at least the ones worth considering) with their VORPs.

    FREE AGENTS BY POSITION:

    Right-hand starting pitchers: Pedro Martinez 51.2, Carl Pavano 62.4, Kevin Millwood 9.3, Jaret Wright 40.3, Russ Ortiz 33.1 , Derek Lowe -11.5, Aaron Sele 7.4, Brad Radke 60.1, Matt Morris 13.4, Paul Wilson 24.6, Matt Clement 36.9, Kris Benson 22.4.

    Left-hand starting pitchers: Eric Milton 18.7, Odalis Perez 49.7.

    Now, if we expect past performance to project future performance (and I wish updated PECOTA forecasts based on '04 data were available) the four pitchers most likely to give bang for the buck, IMO, are Odalis Perez, Brad Radke, Russ Ortiz and Matt Clement.
    "People that frequent Internet forums resemble the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest!" - C. J. Cregg, The West Wing

  12. #26
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    M2, thank you for an excellent post. I agree with everything.

    It's posts like this that bring me back to this place even when the last thing on my mind is Reds baseball.

    Well, the Buckeyes are killing me right now, so I guess I'm already looking forward to April.

    Why can't people like yourself and others on this board get in the front office and shake things up? I truly feel that there are more competent baseball minds on this board than the current Reds FO.

  13. #27
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Sure, Dunn would like to sign a long term deal - on his terms. Speculating that he would sign a contract that would save the Reds millions is just that, speculation. And common sense says he wouldn't.
    "People that frequent Internet forums resemble the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest!" - C. J. Cregg, The West Wing

  14. #28
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Nice to have you around, M2.

  15. #29
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Quote Originally Posted by Aronchis
    You get some starting pitching develpment out of Hudson and Claussen plus a inning eating starter, the staff goes from real bad to at least average. Enough for playoffs? Probably not, but closing in.
    I've got some extraterrestial property that might interest you too.

    This is the exact same plan as develop Jose Acevedo and Aaron Harang plus Cory Lidle and Paul Wilson to eat innings. You saw how well it worked -- absolute, bloody mess (5.08 combined ERA). Keep doing it and I can tell you with near absolute certainty how well it's going to work.

    As for Moseley, he's never been allowed to succeed. The Reds have undone him with a promotion everytime he's starting to roll. IMO it's turned him into a guy who doesn't trust his stuff because he's rarely been mature enough to compete at his given level. It's entirely possible Dustin would be a different pitcher, more of a power pitcher had the Reds ever allowed him to settle in and develop those skills. Now you're acting as if he'll rediscover something he was never allowed to find in the first place and that if he doesn't do that, then the Reds shouldn't be held accountable. That's how you go two decades without developing a starting pitcher worth a bucket of spit.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  16. #30
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    Re: Stuck in reverse

    Quote Originally Posted by guernsey
    Sure, Dunn would like to sign a long term deal - on his terms. Speculating that he would sign a contract that would save the Reds millions is just that, speculation. And common sense says he wouldn't.
    Common sense dictates that the LTC would have cost far less after a 27 HR, .819 OPS season when he was still a year shy of arbitration than after a 46 HR, .956 OPS season when he's arb eligible. I never once thought he'd be cheap, but it strikes me as untenable to sit there and insist his price tag didn't skyrocket over the past year.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.


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