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Thread: Your Official 2004 Election Day Thread

  1. #16
    SERP Emeritus paintmered's Avatar
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    Re: Your Official 2004 Election Day Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsBaron
    Of course, if only eight justices are deciding the matter, that would give us the possibility of a 4-4 tie.

    Not to say any of this is actually going to happen, just hypothetically speaking - But what then? Has this ever happened (a split decision)?
    What if this wasn't a rhetorical question?

    All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Your Official 2004 Election Day Thread

    I sure hope we aren't watching lawyers again when this thing is over. And I'm going to be glad when its over. This election season seems to going on forever...

  4. #18
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    Re: Your Official 2004 Election Day Thread

    I don't care how long it takes. I just want a legitimate government.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  5. #19
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Your Official 2004 Election Day Thread

    A very small part of me wants to see Bush win the popular vote and Kerry win the electoral vote. One, because it might get both sides to consider a straight popular vote. Secondly, I think it will be fun just to see the reactions from both sides to see if they do a complete 180 from what they said in 2000.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  6. #20
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    Re: Your Official 2004 Election Day Thread

    A very small part of me wants to see Bush win the popular vote and Kerry win the electoral vote. One, because it might get both sides to consider a straight popular vote.
    That's a good point. And I think this might happen. I predict a wide but shallow Kerry victory (OH, FL, WI, IA, NH) because of GOTV.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  7. #21
    A Little to the Left Redsfaithful's Avatar
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    Re: Your Official 2004 Election Day Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM
    A very small part of me wants to see Bush win the popular vote and Kerry win the electoral vote. One, because it might get both sides to consider a straight popular vote. Secondly, I think it will be fun just to see the reactions from both sides to see if they do a complete 180 from what they said in 2000.
    I'd still be against the electoral college. I believe more and more that it hurts America, and I do think 2000 will have to happen again, and probably to Republicans this time, for people to start seriously wanting it changed.
    We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.
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  8. #22
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    Re: Your Official 2004 Election Day Thread

    Here are my thoughts on this election:

    *My educated guess: this election won't be resolved tomorrow night.

    *This election is going to come down to four states, really: Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Kerry wins if he gets two of the four (as long as he gets one of Ohio or Florida). Bush needs both Ohio and Florida or a combination of three out of the four to win.

    *The polls from the other "swing" states--NH, MN, MO, CO, NV, NM, AR, HI, NJ, MI, and PA--seem to be firmly entrenched on one side or the other. I would be fairly surprised if any of them swing to the other side.

    *Yesterday's "The Note" suggests that the early returns on the Iowa absentee ballots are heavily in favor of Kerry, whereas the likely turnout at the polls should be split about 50/50.

    Here is the link to the article:
    http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pb...73188680908280

    "Twenty-seven percent of Iowa adults surveyed said they had already voted. Kerry leads Bush, 52 percent to 41 percent, among that group of early-bird voters. Among the 73 percent who said they definitely would vote on Tuesday, Kerry and Bush are tied."

    *The U.S. Appellate court ruling today was a big win for Kerry. Essentially, it prevents lawyers (or anyone else) from preventing and challenging others from voting at the polls.

    http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercu...0072743.htm?1c

    Not that anybody cares, but my own $0.02 is that this move by the Ohio Republican party smells of modern-day, Jim Crow-racism, akin to poll taxes.

    *Social scientists say that it is rare for incumbents to get more than they get in tracking polls in the week leading up the election (i.e., the polls seem to be an "upper bound" for the incumbents for lots of reasons, such as the public's familiarity with the person and knowing what he/she stands for). If that is true, then Bush should be worried. His "upper bound" in Ohio is ~48%, it is 47% in Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, et al.

    *I'm really skeptical of CNN/Gallup polls or any of the partisan polls. One lesson in how they *lie* with statistics: the sample that Gallup uses has consistenly been 5% to the right of actual 2000 exit polls. In other words, they are making a sampling error by not recalibrating the data to match historical trends, then repackaging it as concrete evidence. This is the same trick that partisan pollsters from both sides use to boost people's impressions of their candidate's chances.
    Last edited by D-Man; 11-01-2004 at 11:27 PM.

  9. #23
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: Your Official 2004 Election Day Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by paintmered
    Not to say any of this is actually going to happen, just hypothetically speaking - But what then? Has this ever happened (a split decision)?
    A 4-4 decision would result in the lower court's judgment remaining in place.
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."

  10. #24
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    Re: Your Official 2004 Election Day Thread

    I heard on the news this morning that they are expecting a 120 M turnout this year, versus a 106 M turnout in 2000.

  11. #25
    The wino and I know bucksfan's Avatar
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    Re: Your Official 2004 Election Day Thread

    Tell ya what, if the lines at my poll are any indicator (and I'm not saying they really are) then the turnout will be higher.
    "I'm virtually free to do whatever I want, but I try to remember so is everybody else..." - Todd Snider

  12. #26
    Waiting for a tour/album KittyDuran's Avatar
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    Re: Your Official 2004 Election Day Thread

    I voted! :gac:

    First time I had to wait since I started going in the morning before work. Had to drive around the school parking lot to find a space and ended up parking on the side. Hit the door at 6:45am - and was the 8th in line to sign in - there was a line of 10 waiting to vote at the machines (and already 2 were out of order???!!!). It went pretty quick tho' and I was out on the road by 7am. Other people that I work with said that the lines were incredible.
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  13. #27
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    Re: Your Official 2004 Election Day Thread

    I just got back from voting and the lines are the longest I have ever seen for an election. It took us 10 minutes to find a place to park and another 45 minutes to wait to vote. So if you can vote early today I would recommend it because the lines after work tonight may be very long.

  14. #28
    Mod Law zombie-a-go-go's Avatar
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    Re: Your Official 2004 Election Day Thread

    I got to the polls half an hour before they opened and was, like, the thirtieth person in line - when I got out of there at seven there must have been, and I'm not kidding here, about four-hundred people waiting in line, and more coming in.

    And I saw a lot of people I never would have pegged to be voters - yeah, because of stereotypes - all these kids with their sags and bandannas and football jerseys and chains, none of whom were probably old enough to drink. It kinda reaffirmed my faith in this city's youth - I overheard some of them talking about passing the school levy that's on the ballot here in Hamilton County.
    "It's easier to give up. I'm not a very vocal player. I lead by example. I take the attitude that I've got to go out and do it. Because of who I am, I've got to give everything I've got to come back."
    -Ken Griffey Jr.

  15. #29
    RZ Chamber of Commerce Unassisted's Avatar
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    Re: Your Official 2004 Election Day Thread

    Here's an auto-updating map of states as they are declared for each candidate. It won't get interesting until the polls start closing.

    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pag...lts/president/

    Feel free to add it to the original post, WV. It'll be a nice thing for folks to keep open on their browser during the evening.
    /r/reds

  16. #30
    C-A-T-S CATS! CATS! CATS! WVRed's Avatar
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    Re: Your Official 2004 Election Day Thread

    The Giant Wafflehead is at the Waffle House close to Polaris.

    Waffle here waffle there waffle in your hair giant wafflehead wobbling toward you. Waffle near waffle far waffle in your car, now America must brace for Project Longface.
    Quote Originally Posted by savafan View Post
    I've read books about sparkling vampires who walk around in the daylight that were written better than a John Fay article.


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