Reds sign Wilson

[M2]

Sure it does.

But the horse that pulls that wagon is the ability to contend enough to make a rush in season if need be, that means stability in the farm system, money to buy guys to get over the hump and depth all around.

Stuff that the Reds are currently lacking in.

That's a hard sell to FA's at this point, if a better pitcher who makes more jack than Wilson is to be had it will probably be by a trade.

Honestly, do you think the average baseball player has any clue as to the relative strength of a team's farm system? Or that the same ballplayer needs to hear anything more than "We're committed to doing everything necessary to making this franchise a winner and it all starts with YOU." to make him think he's going to a franchise that's on the right track?

I understand there's some that will look deeper and be big-market-powerhousecentric, but the Reds can tick off the names of their better players on offense and that's going to impress more than a few pitchers out there -- Adam Dunn? That guy kills me. Be nice to have him on my side for once.

The Reds had a certain chunk of PayFlex to start this offseason. My figuring was that, if they kept a laser focus on getting at least one quality pitcher, they had up to $9M to spend on said pitcher if there was no payroll increase. That can buy you someone pretty good regardless of your zip code. That sum might be down to $5M now, meaning that trade may be the only sensible avenue to finding the kind of talent the Reds need.

[iammrred]

Honestly, do you think the average baseball player has any clue as to the relative strength of a team's farm system?

Yes. Or at least his agent does... especially if they're discussing a multi-year deal.

[REDREAD]

I don't buy this. Good players sign with bad teams all the time.
.

Yep. Whether you think they are dumb or good signings, the Tigers have signed IRod and a few other FAs recently.

I do agree that you might have show a Clement or Millwood that you have plans to compete within the next 3 years to get their interest. They might not want to come here with no other changes. But let's say the Reds upgraded 3b (instead of the Kearns experiment), and got another starter and a couple relievers.. It would certainly be easier.

I do agree with WOY that Allen and the Reds' reputation probably makes some agents not even bother to return DanO's calls. The Reds would have to make some changes in the way they operate.

[westofyou]

Yes. Or at least his agent does... especially if they're discussing a multi-year deal.

What he said.

I really think that the agents job is to get more than just cash and year, it also involves putting his guy in a position to exceed personal numbers or comfort.

[Buckeye33]

Rotoworld agrees with most of the posters on here:

Paul Wilson's two-year contract with the Reds is worth $8.2 million.
Wilson will make $3.6 million next year and $3.75 million in 2006. There's a team option for 2007, when he could make up to about $5.15 million depending upon escalators, or the Reds can buy out the option for $850,000. We know this is starting to sound like a broken record, but this is just too much money. Wilson posted the best ERA of his career last year, but his ERA+, which is adjusted for league and ballpark, has held steady at 92 each of the last four years. The main reason last year was the best season of his career is because he allowed fewer unearned runs. Wilson has never pitched 200 innings and he's nothing more than a league-average starter when healthy. Better pitchers will come cheaper later on this winter. Nov. 30 - 2:14 pm et

[M2]

Yes. Or at least his agent does... especially if they're discussing a multi-year deal.

Your average player wants to know who he's going to be playing with, not the names of some kids he doesn't know from Job. And an agent's just as likely to steer a player away from a franchise with a strong farm system (because they may look to trade his client in a year or two if he doesn't get a no-trade clause) as he is steer you towards it. This is assuming that agent values farm system anywhere near its overall payroll, which I submit, along with recent record and current personnel, are the only significant measures those agents will be using to gauge who a contender is.

[traderumor]

I think the primary concern for a FA changing teams is the size of the check and will it clear. All of the other stuff is secondary and they certainly consider it, but most guys like Clement and Perez, in their first run through the game, they are looking primarily at contract. They always give lip service to the other things, because, let's face it, they sure aren't going to pull a Leon after just signing with a new team and say "They offered me the best contract so I took it."

[NJReds]

Rotoworld agrees with most of the posters on here:

Paul Wilson's two-year contract with the Reds is worth $8.2 million.
Wilson will make $3.6 million next year and $3.75 million in 2006. There's a team option for 2007, when he could make up to about $5.15 million depending upon escalators, or the Reds can buy out the option for $850,000. We know this is starting to sound like a broken record, but this is just too much money. Wilson posted the best ERA of his career last year, but his ERA+, which is adjusted for league and ballpark, has held steady at 92 each of the last four years. The main reason last year was the best season of his career is because he allowed fewer unearned runs. Wilson has never pitched 200 innings and he's nothing more than a league-average starter when healthy. Better pitchers will come cheaper later on this winter. Nov. 30 - 2:14 pm et

They must have fainted at first sight of Benson's contract.

[M2]

What he said.

I really think that the agents job is to get more than just cash and year, it also involves putting his guy in a position to exceed personal numbers or comfort.

Cash
Years
Comfort in new surroundings
Everything else

I think that would be just about the standard checklist. For some players going to a team that did well last year is going to be part of that comfort. For others factors like media market and his own aesthetics (some players might only want to be in Cali for instance) take precedence.

But strength of system is something you never even hear discussed in all the various ramblings about the free agent market.

IMO, those are things you and I care about, but we're by no means indicative of the standard thought process in the marketplace.

[guernsey]

My figuring was that, if they kept a laser focus on getting at least one quality pitcher, they had up to $9M to spend on said pitcher if there was no payroll increase.

But there is going to be payroll increase, which means there could still be $9M available for a pitcher (although I think that figure was high by a couple million). And another could come through trade.

[westofyou]

But strength of system is something you never even hear discussed in all the various ramblings about the free agent market.

That's a micro look at it, it factors into the "Can they really win it" part of why should I sign with the Cincinnati Reds.

And currently the answer is No, they don't have the resources.

[M2]

I'm just not sure what you guys expect. We saw Cory Lidle and we saw Benson. This contract seems pretty fairly priced.

Measuring against bad standards will net you bad decisions. Though I think you may have perfectly captured the Reds' mindset on this.

And what Boss said about waiting for the other shoe to drop. After the last four offseasons, I'm proceeding from the standpoint that I'll believe it when I see it.

[M2]

That's a micro look at it, it factors into the "Can they really win it" part of why should I sign with the Cincinnati Reds.

And currently the answer is No, they don't have the resources.

Then neither do the Blue Jays or Indians, reported to be the two teams leading the Clement chase at the moment.

The Red Sox, Yankees, Cardinals and Dodgers can't sign everyone.

But there is going to be payroll increase, which means there could still be $9M available for a pitcher (although I think that figure was high by a couple million). And another could come through trade.

You draw a pretty picture, but we've got no concrete proof it's more than that. I hope you're right. Though if the $9M was a tad high, then how do the Reds afford Wilson, a free agent AND a guy acquired through trade? Seems to me either they have a lot more than that $9M or that's a pipe dream.

[princeton]

I felt better at this time last year. Wilson wasn't the "big signing" then, Claussen seemed close, the market was down and we had a bit of cash (which we subsequently blew on Cory Lidle), and we seemed to have a chance at a closer with Reitsma/Wagner.

this year, we have a bit of cash but the market is way up, we know more about Claussen, and there's no hope for a closer.

one hope to compete is to rush the young arms. There's more of 'em, and Ellis is gone. Still, we've been down THAT road before.

a better idea is probably to trade the kid arms. But I don't think that DanO can do it.

[westofyou]

Then neither do the Blue Jays or Indians, reported to be the two teams leading the Clement chase at the moment.

The Red Sox, Yankees, Cardinals and Dodgers can't sign everyone.

The Indians are a lot closer then the Reds, especially in that dog division.