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Thread: Reds sign Wilson

  1. #76
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Silly.

    Dan O'Brien just signed a player who isn't as good as he thinks for a lot more money than he's worth.

    Great.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  3. #77
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Didn't he make around 3.5 million last year? If that is so this isn't that bad of a deal...You aren't going to sign Clement for around 4 million per/yr and the Reds know this. Clement will probably sign for around 7 million or so maybe a little less. Scouts think too highly of him for him to be signed around 4. Wilson is a solid veteran that has good stuff and if stays healthy will pitch deep into games and give you a chance to win most nights he pitches. I'm not saying this is a for-sure good thing...i'm just saying give it a chance.

  4. #78
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Quote Originally Posted by DoogMinAmo
    The bright side is it was only a marginal raise form last year, where he pitched above expectations. I say good enough.
    Again, this is why GMs have to understand their park effects. Due to some creative groundskeeping the Reds transformed the GAB into a pitchers park last season. Wilson's 4.36 ERA wasn't any better in relative terms than his 4.64, 4.83 and 4.88 marks in previous years. In fact it was exactly the same. So he didn't pitch above expectations. He pitched directly to his career norms and if the Reds think otherwise then they've failed to take into account the effects of their own actions.

    Wilson did have a winning record for the first time in his career, but that had almost everything to do with getting 5+ runs a game from the offense in his starts. Would you pay that much for an 8-11 pitcher with a 4.50 ERA? Because that's what Wilson is on average.


    Quote Originally Posted by Boss-Hog
    It's 100% on O'Brien for spending the money that is available to him on signings like Paul Wilson.
    Exactly. And it's not like the ownership won't lump the blame for these decisions on his shoulders if it leads to a losing product the next two years.

    Crash, great stuff.
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  5. #79
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou
    Why (and I ask this seriously) would any of those guys want to hook up with the Reds at this point and time? They're rebuilding the left side of their infield, they don't have a large budget, they play in a division with 3 teams with bigger payrolls and 2 of them have really good starters.

    Maybe someday, but the current state of the Reds (not to mention their history with Type A FA's) screams that this is all wishful thinking.
    Big fish, small pond?

    If you like Paul Wilson and think he can be a valuable contributer for only $100K more than he then it's a good deal.

    However, if you think the Reds could have done better and offered that $3.6M plus another $3.5M-$5M a year for a much better pitcher, then it's not so good of a deal.

    Personally, I'm in the latter camp. I don't begrudge Wilson his money but we can do better. Of course all the mediots will be jumping for joy over this signing.
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  6. #80
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor
    The problem is that keeping Wilson makes it that much tougher to pick up any of those three. Having that extra 4.1 million a year would go a long ways towards picking one of them up.
    People keep saying this about signing Perez, Clement, etc. as if money is the only concern for these guys.

    Did it ever cross anyone's mind that DanO and his staff have contacted some of these players (and/or their agents of course) and found that they're not really interested in coming here? Or that guys who might be willing to come here are guys we might not be interested in?

  7. #81
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Just FYI,

    Lance McAllister is gushing over the Wilson signing. Speaking of missing posters...

  8. #82
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    I fervently hope this is only the first signing for the Reds with others to come.

    However, I am not foolish.

    Why is it I think of a tick bird on an insect-ridden rhino when I think of the Reds in the FA market?

    Pay attention to the open sky

  9. #83
    Member Phhhl's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    We've been reduced to quibbling over whether Paul Wilson is worth 4 mil or 2.5 mil per season. Who cares. Whatever the difference between this contract and what he will ultimately be worth, this doesn't get these greedy basta*ds off the hook for upgrading this staff with veteran pitching the remainder of the winter. Paul Wilson can help this team, but not by himself.

    A guy I like may get his walking papers from the Astros soon... Wade Miller. Despite his shoulder problems, the Reds should be all over Miller if he is bought out of his contract.

  10. #84
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R
    Big fish, small pond?

    If you like Paul Wilson and think he can be a valuable contributer for only $100K more than he then it's a good deal.

    However, if you think the Reds could have done better and offered that $3.6M plus another $3.5M-$5M a year for a much better pitcher, then it's not so good of a deal.

    Personally, I'm in the latter camp. I don't begrudge Wilson his money but we can do better. Of course all the mediots will be jumping for joy over this signing.
    Of course if the Reds could/can get another pitcher for more than so be it.

    I just don't see any Type A's coming to Cincinnati, especially before 12-7, especially with the unstable IF.

    Like I said I don't like Wilson as a #1, I'd prefer to have guys like him at the bottom of the rotation than TVP.

    Some of his peers from last year got some bucks.

    Code:
    NATIONAL LEAGUE
    SEASON
    2004
    
    
    ERA                             ERA      GS       ERA      ERA     RSAA      AGE    
    1    Mike Hampton               4.28       29     4.28     0.03        0       31   
    2    Kris Benson                4.31       31     4.31     0.00       -3       29   
    3    Paul Wilson                4.36       29     4.36     -.05       -7       31   
    4    Adam Eaton                 4.61       33     4.61     -.29      -14       26   
    5    Josh Fogg                  4.64       32     4.64     -.33      -10       27   
    6    Kazuhisa Ishii             4.71       31     4.71     -.40      -11       30   
    7    Matt Morris                4.72       32     4.72     -.41      -12       29   
    8    Kirk Rueter                4.73       33     4.73     -.41       -6       33   
    9    Eric Milton                4.75       34     4.75     -.43       -9       28

  11. #85
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    My take. This is $4.1 million per year, with $850,000 deferred to the third year as a buyout option. The deferral reduces the value to Wilson and helps the Reds keep some cash in the first two years. Probably a fair deal for Reds, given today's prices, although not a bargain.

    The problem, of course, is that it seems unlikely that the Reds will now pay for another good starting pitcher. Hard to see Reds now signing a Perez or Clement.

    Instead, the other signings will be inexpensive relievers (probably several) and maybe a veteran fifth starter type, somebody who will work for $1 to 1.5 million.

    Looks to me like the Reds probably plan to rise or fall with Wilson and 4 youngsters in the rotation and an improved bullpen. If the 4 youngsters were top tier prospects this might work, but you have to question whether it can work with Hudson, Claussen, Harang and Hancock.

    In short, this move indicates that Reds will continue their conservative ways, with no bold moves this off-season. Hope I am wrong.

  12. #86
    Member Crosley68's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Chip R..... who are these pitchers that will sign with us for 3.5 mil?
    Let's play two!!!

  13. #87
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Did it ever cross anyone's mind that DanO and his staff have contacted some of these players (and/or their agents of course) and found that they're not really interested in coming here?
    I don't buy this. Good players sign with bad teams all the time.

    Doubling the money and signing a real ace is one thing, bargain hunting for innings-eaters is another. But this deal is neither fish nor fowl and that's the real problem. Its a risk-averse, prevent-defense move.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  14. #88
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    This comes as no surprise. If discussions were being held with the Clements etc, we would have known. I held no expectations of the Reds signing a competent pitcher. Lindner never has or will he give the money. He gave the money to get Griffey and as far as he's concerned, his money is spent (as long as JR is on the roster).

    I believe the plan is to hope to be average while staying the in the black until Jr's contract exprires and during which they will build during the draft so as to be a contender by 2009 when they can sign that missing #1 pitcher with the freed money. Look at the bright side, at least signing Wilson as opposed to a Clement does not cost them a draft pick. It also moved M2 to use the rare emoticon.

  15. #89
    Lover of Trivialities Doc. Scott's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Like I'd been saying all along, you knew Wilson couldn't take a pay cut with the backended deal JimBo gave him, especially after his best year to date. Which is why I knew that the people looking at Wilson's career numbers and age and were arguing he wasn't worth $2.5MM were both right (about P-Dub's value in a vacuum) and wrong (that the Reds would ever get P-Dub for his "true" value).

    If the Reds wanted to keep Paul, they should have reasoned going in that the per-year base was going to *have* to be $3.5MM or a little more.

    I don't find the deal ridiculous, just not a bargain. And it's only a signing that actively hurts the team if it means we don't get someone else of good quality in here as well.

    I actually sort of like DanO's seeming tendency towards acquiring a player or two more than he needs (witness: SS) so there's a fallback plan if someone gets injured or sucks. I would especially like to see that with the pitching, and done in a more intelligent manner than JimBo's annual Pitchin' Jamboree down in Sarasota.

  16. #90
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Good move and good price...only a very small raise from last season! He's a good leader and had a good year last year.

    Ace? No.

    This better not be the ONLY move
    Last edited by Matt700wlw; 11-30-2004 at 03:53 PM.


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