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Thread: Reds sign Wilson

  1. #166
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    RFS,

    You've summed up the rolling disaster that is the Cincinnati Reds perfectly.

    Now is there any truth to the rumor that Homer Bailey has changed his last name to Godot?
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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  3. #167
    Member MattyHo4Life's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Quote Originally Posted by bleedsred
    Thumbs up to Wilson for WANTING to be a RED with hardly a raise at all.
    Don't be fooled by the FO spin. Paul Wilson did get a big raise. His previous contract was heavily backloaded (.5 mil in 2003 and 3.5 mil in 2004). I remember most posters here expected him to be traded since he was being "overpaid" in 2004. With the team option, the 3rd year really is non existant, so the Reds will owe the buyout which makes the buyout basically the same as a deferred payment. Wilson is getting 4.1 mil a year for two years. His previous contract was for an average of 2 Mil per year for 2 years. The only way you can think he's not getting a raise is if you're using fuzzy math.

  4. #168
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor
    Everyone pretty much agrees that the Cory Lidle signing was a blunder for the Phils.

    Here's something to keep in mind. Paul Wilson and Lidle had the exact same OPS against, .771.
    Wilson VORP 24.6, Lidles 11.9

    Here's some other comps for Wilsons seson last year, 2.2 below him and 2.2 above him with his VORP of 24.6 being the mean.

    Pretty interesting names in that group.

    15 million dollar starters and 700K Relievers

    Code:
    NAME                TEAM LG   G  GS    IP  H/9 BB/9 SO/9 HR/9 BABIP   ERA    RA PK_RA RA+     RP   VORP
    
    A.J. Burnett         FLO NL  20  19 120.0  7.7  2.9  8.5  0.7 0.291  3.67  3.75  3.95 118    9.9   26.8
    John Smoltz          ATL NL  73   0  81.7  8.3  1.4  9.4  0.9 0.315  2.76  2.76  2.76 170   17.6   26.7
    Shingo Takatsu       CHA AL  59   0  62.3  5.8  3.0  7.2  0.9 0.207  2.31  2.45  2.32 217   18.8   26.5
    Jeremy Bonderman     DET AL  33  32 184.0  8.2  3.6  8.2  1.2 0.286  4.89  4.94  5.09  98   -1.3   26.4
    Kevin Brown          NYA AL  22  22 132.0  9.0  2.4  5.7  1.0 0.290  4.09  4.43  4.57 110    6.8   26.4
    Brett Tomko          SFN NL  32  31 194.0  9.1  3.0  5.0  0.9 0.283  4.04  4.55  4.41 106    5.9   26.2
    Roy Halladay         TOR AL  21  21 133.0  9.5  2.6  6.4  0.9 0.313  4.20  4.47  4.25 118   11.5   26.1
    Steve Trachsel       NYN NL  33  33 202.7  9.0  3.7  5.2  1.1 0.282  4.00  4.62  4.67 100    0.5   25.8
    Ryan Madson          PHI NL  52   1  77.0  7.9  2.2  6.4  0.7 0.276  2.34  2.69  2.66 176   17.3   25.8
    Salomon Torres       PIT NL  84   0  92.0  8.5  2.2  6.1  0.6 0.298  2.64  3.23  3.36 139   13.6   25.3
    Jon Garland          CHA AL  34  33 217.0  9.2  3.2  4.7  1.4 0.277  4.89  5.18  4.89 102    3.4   25.2
    Latroy Hawkins       CHN NL  77   0  82.0  7.9  1.5  7.6  1.1 0.270  2.63  2.96  2.82 166   17.0   25.0
    Guillermo Mota       LAN NL  52   0  63.0  7.3  3.9  7.4  0.6 0.280  2.14  2.14  2.23 210   17.2   24.9
    Ramon Ortiz          ANA AL  34  14 128.0  9.8  2.7  5.8  1.3 0.306  4.43  4.50  4.55 110    6.9   24.9
    Braden Looper        NYN NL  71   0  83.3  9.3  1.7  6.5  0.5 0.314  2.70  3.02  3.05 153   15.1   24.8
    Bronson Arroyo       BOS AL  32  29 178.7  8.6  2.4  7.2  0.9 0.291  4.03  4.99  4.75 105    5.6   24.7
    Paul Wilson          CIN NL  29  29 183.7  9.4  3.1  5.7  1.3 0.293  4.36  4.56  4.90  95   -4.3   24.6
    Mike Hampton         ATL NL  29  29 172.3 10.3  3.4  4.5  0.8 0.315  4.28  4.49  4.49 104    3.8   24.4
    Chad Cordero         MON NL  69   0  82.7  7.4  4.7  9.0  0.9 0.278  2.94  3.05  3.18 147   13.9   24.4
    Lance Carter         TBA AL  56   0  80.3  8.6  2.6  4.0  1.3 0.252  3.47  3.59  3.73 134   11.6   24.1
    Mark Prior           CHN NL  21  21 118.7  8.5  3.6 10.5  1.1 0.333  3.94  3.94  3.76 124   12.3   24.0
    Ron Mahay            TEX AL  60   0  67.0  8.1  3.9  7.3  0.7 0.281  2.55  3.09  2.83 177   16.3   23.8
    Damaso Marte         CHA AL  74   0  73.7  6.8  4.2  8.3  1.2 0.256  3.42  3.42  3.23 155   14.8   23.4
    Javier Vazquez       NYA AL  32  32 198.0  8.9  2.7  6.8  1.5 0.278  4.91  5.18  5.34  94   -6.9   23.1
    Mike Mussina         NYA AL  27  27 164.7  9.7  2.2  7.2  1.2 0.317  4.59  4.97  5.13  98   -1.8   23.0
    Ryan Franklin        SEA AL  32  32 200.3 10.1  2.7  4.7  1.5 0.294  4.90  5.21  5.60  89  -12.8   22.7
    Antonio Alfonseca    ATL NL  79   0  73.7  8.7  3.4  5.5  0.6 0.289  2.57  2.93  2.93 159   14.4   22.7
    Miguel Batista       TOR AL  38  31 198.7  9.3  4.3  4.7  1.0 0.293  4.80  5.21  4.96 101    1.5   22.6
    Jeff Suppan          SLN NL  31  31 188.0  9.2  3.1  5.3  1.2 0.283  4.16  4.69  4.84  96   -3.1   22.4
    Last edited by westofyou; 11-30-2004 at 09:10 PM.

  5. #169
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Quote Originally Posted by RFS62
    The only way we're going to get a front line pitcher is to trade one of the three stud kids, IMO. And best case scenario would be to tie Danny Graves to that deal.
    WMP and Graves to Bowden. Yeah yeah yeah, potential potential potential, but I'd rather open up an OF spot for Kearns (and third for Freel) and be able to deep six Graves. Don't really care what the team got back either (don't know Les Nationals roster at all..)

    Even with all the injuries in 2004, WMP still only got 360 TPA, which is just over half what he NEEDED. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he takes a step backwards in 2005 with more playing time (a .316 OBP is a recipe for backsliding).
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  6. #170
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Quote Originally Posted by Redmachine2003
    But Wilson has improve every year since he came back from his arm trouble and who is to say he won't continue to improve.
    Again, Wilson's ERA+, the stat that measures the relative strength of his ERA against a park-adjusted league average has been a below average 92 four straight seasons. Wilson hasn't improved one iota. Some of the external factors around him may make it seem that way, but it's an illusion and the Reds' purported baseball professionals should be able to spot it for what it is from a mile away.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  7. #171
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou
    Wilson VORP 24.6, Lidles 11.9

    WOY, does that include Lidles' with both Cincy and Philly?
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  8. #172
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor
    WOY, does that include Lidles' with both Cincy and Philly?

    You're right they split them, apparently Cory had a VORP of 0.4 with the Reds.

    In a 149 innings

    Yeeechhhhhhhh

    Makes the trade look even better.................. I bet the clubhouse even smelled better after he left, that's a stinker of a year.

  9. #173
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Quote Originally Posted by DoogMinAmo
    Execellent post! Even if it were 7-10 more wins from Clement, which I doubt, could that money not be better spent on bullpen help? If our bullpen blew half as many games last year, we would have had a winning season.

    Bullpens that don't log tons of innings have fewer opportunities to blow games. The best way to fix blown saves is to have starters go longer--which means, in short--get better starters. I see no move in that direction.

  10. #174
    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor
    WMP and Graves to Bowden. Yeah yeah yeah, potential potential potential, but I'd rather open up an OF spot for Kearns (and third for Freel) and be able to deep six Graves. Don't really care what the team got back either (don't know Les Nationals roster at all..)

    I think the biggest mistake last year was not getting rid of Graves at the deadline. All last year we were moaning "shine him up and move him out". Well, we got him shined up far beyond his real value, and we didn't pull the trigger.
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
    ~ Mark Twain

  11. #175
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    [QUOTE=Boss-Hog]I get the impression that you and the Reds are very much on the same page.

    I think we are on the same page. I'm not an fool. Why would I think we would go get a Zito type pitcher. We never have! I think you discount the fact that we have young players that the Reds and I believe will improve. That worst ERA didn't include Hudson. Harang had a nice spell. Even Handcock showed to be above ave. in a short time. I think the hope is Claussen becomes a nice lefty who shows more then the potential this season. It's a lot to bank on, but no Acevdeo, Haynes and at least Wilson is not a Mazanillios. (sp) Look at the Cardinals. If we add another Wilson type and the other 2-3 guys show up and improve I think there's a shot to have a decent 5. At least a better shot then a starting line up that includes Haynes as your opening day starter.

    The pitchers just aren't out there. Look at Phil. picking up our very own Cory Lidle. Tell me Boss! What do you expect the Reds to do? What has the FO said that gives you the impression we are going for a #1. They haven't. They said we go young and fill in a couple vets and we try to score lots of runs with this potent line up.

    If the Reds get another Wilson type pitcher and a decent lefty in the pen and possibly another righty I think with this line up we can stay in the hunt and hope for an injury free miracle 99 season. At this point the reality is we need a couple years to develope the young guys, but if the Kearns situation works out and they stay healthy we will be winning some high scoring games exactly like the Cardinals did. Is it the best way to do it - Who knows - it's not my job! I just don't see pitchers out there that are guarantee locks. Even Zito who I keep hearing stunk much of the year last season. There are no guarantees. I just like seeing a potential outfield that can all hit 40 HRs, mixed in with Kearns, Casey, DJ, and an above ave. catching hitter.

    To be continued...........
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

  12. #176
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    The Reds are not going to build a winner signing FAs to fairly priced contracts. They have to find the gems(which Wilson clearly is not) and sign them to under priced contracts.
    That would be nice. Maybe it's Handcock, maybe it's Robinson/Robertson (sp) - guy from Houston, maybe its Hudson, maybe it's Claussen. I don't know. Wilson is just a leader and a vet with a great work ethic to be mixed in. I don't see how that can be bad at this point!
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

  13. #177
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor
    Everyone pretty much agrees that the Cory Lidle signing was a blunder for the Phils.

    Here's something to keep in mind. Paul Wilson and Lidle had the exact same OPS against, .771.
    Exactly my point. There are not many pitchers out there much better then Wilson and Lidle. Phil. picked up Lidle for a playoff run and he helped them with a couple complete games and then he got shelled. Wilson is more consistant, works hard, the guys want him there, and he wants to be here. He took less money to stay in Cincy. I would think people would appreciate that. Pitchers don't grow on trees. You could pay 20 million and get Randy Johson, Pedro, Schilling and really what does one pitcher do. He could get hurt, the same sucky bullpen can blow there games, etc. This team needs more then 1 guy and I think upgrading 3-4 spots is more help then one Ace.
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

  14. #178
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Then neither do the Blue Jays or Indians, reported to be the two teams leading the Clement chase at the moment.
    The Indians were only a game behind the Twins in late August last year, and then proceded to lose 7 or 8 straight. The AL Central is there for the taking by any one of three or four teams.


    Though if the $9M was a tad high, then how do the Reds afford Wilson, a free agent AND a guy acquired through trade? Seems to me either they have a lot more than that $9M or that's a pipe dream.
    The $9M was high if the payroll stayed the same. The payroll is going up. Numerous sources have stated that, including the Reds. By how much? That question hasn't been answered. I'm saying that $7M was probably available if the payroll stayed the same. ESPN lists the Reds '04 payroll at about $43M. I'm guessing the '05 figure will be $50M (at least). That means there's $14M new money to be spent for '05. $3.5M just went to Wilson, leaving $10.5 for other acquisitions.

    Now's the time to see how the secondary starting pither market sorts itself out. Rumors are that the Twins will have to come up with $27M over three years for Radke. I'll pass. Pavano's a goner to somewhere else. Clement's looking at $8M+ for at least three years. Maybe. The White Sox are reportedly offering Jaret Wright a 3-year deal. No $$ mentioned. I'd like to see what it would take to land Odalis Perez, Eric Milton or Jon Leiber. I'd pass on Russ Ortiz and Kevin Millwood, unless Millwood gets a lot less than Boras thinks he can get for him. Kevin may be the one guy still standing at the station next February when all the trains are pulling out of the station. (Derek Lowe may be standing next to him, but I'm betting someone will bite on Derek's great postseason.)

    Oh, and just because DanO signed Wilson, I don't see him not continuing trade talks of Kearns for Harden or Dunn for Beckett. Lots of folks here didn't think DanO could think that big.

  15. #179
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    Nice signing by the Reds today. Wilson's contract won't break the budget and the Reds don't have a longterm commitment. What people forget is Haynes' contract is off the books and the Reds used that money to increase the offer to Wilson.

    Now, I would like to see the Reds offer Jaret Wright to a three year deal for similar money. Would it be enough? I don't know but if you put Wilson and Wright at the top of the rotation to go with Hudson, Claussen and either Harang or Hancock, I think it makes the rotation competitive.
    If you think small, you'll go nowhere in life.

  16. #180
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    Re: Reds sign Wilson

    You do realize that Wilson and the same other 'youngsters' that some are counting on compiled a team ERA that ranked only ahead of the altitude-challenged Rockies, right? The same starters that had the worst collective ERA in team history?
    There's lots of talk about the pitchers who combined to give the Reds their worst team ERA in history. Let's look at a few of the fellows who made that happen. The Reds had nine pitchers who posted ERAs over 6.00. They logged 324 innings, or 36 nine-inning games (nearly a fourth of the schedule). Of those fine folks only Claussen figures to be back with the Reds next year. The others won't don a Reds uni in '05 (Van Poppel, White, Matthews, Reith, Sanchez, Myette, Haynes & Padilla).

    The next guy on the ERA list-of-shame is Jose Acevedo, who posted a 6+ ERA as a starter, and a 0.00 ERA in 17 innings of relief. Very small sample size, but if he can't continue to cut it as a reliever, he surely won't be given the chance to duplicate his starting role. (DanO has shown a propensity to cut bait.)


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