Reds sign Wilson

[Ravenlord]

i remember back in Spring Training....our staff looked something like this:

RHP Lidle
RHP Wilson
RHP Acevedo
RHP Harang
RHP Haynes

RHP Van Poppel
RHP Riedling
RHP Wagner
RHP Reitsma (it was before trade)
LHP Norton
LHP Matthews
RHP Graves

in reserve
RHP Reith
LHP Sanchez
LHP Claussen
RHP Valentine

and i started a thread, which i since can't find, about what i projected the team ERA and Runs Against to be based on that staff. And then Steel added onto it by projecting a much better Runs Against than i did, as well as predicting what the team ERA would have to be in order for the Reds to be competitive. as well, Steel also projected the Reds to score about 770 runs if memory serves.

what it broke down to was this:
Ravenlord's Predictions
Team ERA: 5.38
Runs Against: 872 (this is not adjusting for unearned runs, but that's later)

Steel's Predictions
to be competitive ERA needs to be: 4.48
Runs Against: 720

i don't remember what Steel's projection was for what the Reds' staff was likely to do, and i really wish i did.

the actual results the Reds had were like so:
Runs: 750
Runs Against: 832 (907)
ERA: 5.19

the parenthetical number is the actualy runs againts, not just earned runs. about 8.3% of the Reds runs against were unearned. the Reds final record was 76-86. three games better than their Pythagorean Record.

by the projections i used, i had the Reds record at 71-91. removing unearned runs from the mix, it becomes 75-87.

by the projections Steel used, the record is put at 78-84. removing unearned runs from the mix, it becomes 85-77.

the Reds finished 3 games above their run differential. to me, that means their intangible elements got them 3 extra wins above their skill. so we end up with something like this

Projection/Record
Actual/76-86
Ravenlord/74-88
Steel/81-81

why do i mention all this? because the FO has set itself up for the same doom once again.

RHP Lidle>>Wilson
RHP Wilson>>Hudson
RHP Acevedo>>Claussen
RHP Harang>>Harang
RHP Haynes>>Hancock (who just may make us yearn for Ryan Dempster circa 2003)

RHP Van Poppel>>Valentine
RHP Riedling>>Riedling
RHP Wagner>>Wagner
RHP Reitsma (it was before trade)>>Bong
LHP Norton>>Norton
LHP Matthews>>Acevedo
RHP Graves>>Graves

in other words, 7/12 of what was used for those ST (i think in March) projections, is returning to the Reds. except another year of being borderline contenders until Mother's Day if this keeps up.

[RedsBaron]

The 2004 Reds had the worst pitching staff in team history and one of the worst in major league history. What have the Reds done thus far to improve that staff for 2005?

[flyer85]

What have the Reds done thus far to improve that staff for 2005?

Pick me! Pick me! I know the answer!

NOTHING!!

[Krusty]

It all comes down to the development of the young pitchers (Claussen, Hudson, Hancock and Harang). If they can take the next step in order to be successful major league pitchers, then the club is on the right track.

If not, we plunge back to the depths of the past four seasons.

[wheels]

Problem is, they probably won't take the next step.

Those guys aren't exactly primo prospects....Claussen was highly regarded, but that's about it.

There is no way to convince me that this club is on the right track, and I'm one of the world's bigger optimists.

[Krusty]

I forgot to add Mosley and Gardner to the list. If they get off to hot starts at Louisville, don't be surprise to see them in the Reds rotation the second half of the season.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

The patient has been wheeled into the ER with a gaping shot-gun wound to the head.

The Reds have placed a 4-million dollar Sponge Bob pinky Band-Aid over the wound in the hopes of controlling the bleeding.

Sweet.

Maybe the grounds crew can plant some bushes and trees in the infield to go along with the elephant grass.

[flyer85]

I forgot to add Mosley and Gardner to the list. If they get off to hot starts at Louisville, don't be surprise to see them in the Reds rotation the second half of the season.

Don't forget Pauly.

And what about the 2 studs, Nelson and Bong, that we got for Reitsma?

[KronoRed]

Nice signing

[REDREAD]

That's a micro look at it, it factors into the "Can they really win it" part of why should I sign with the Cincinnati Reds.

And currently the answer is No, they don't have the resources.

I agree that any free agent signing here would have to accept that we aren't going to win it next year.

But let's pretend the Reds' farm system was stuffed with young talent. The first wave was comming in 2006, but the bulk in 2007-2008.

I doubt that would make any difference to a potential free agent. He's mainly interested in the guys on the roster right now. By 2007, there's a good chance he's going to be traded anyway.

[M2]

Quick little pain distribution chart here because guernsey inadvertently hit upon something.

2004

Pitchers with 6.00+ ERA - 324 IP
5.00-5.99 - 479
4.00-4.99 - 466
Under 4.00 - 174

2003

6.00+ - 381
5.00-5.99 - 254
4.00-4.99 - 510
Under 4.00 - 300

The only three guys who returned from the under 4.00 group from 2003 were Acevedo, Wagner and Norton, none of whom threw more than 27 IP in 2003 and all of whom proved their small sample sizes to be unreliable.

Graves and Hudson are the two returnees from that group in 2004. Wilson, Harang, Wagner, Hancock and Bong are the 4.00-4.99 returnees. Wilson's close to a mortal lock to stay in that group. Harang and Hancock, given their peripherals, could fall into the 5.00+ category. Bong may not pitch much in the majors next year. That leaves Wagner as the most likely to graduate to something better.

But the above charts highlight a few things - the failure to field much in the way of quality (21% of the total IP in 2003 and 12% in 2004), the difficulty in getting career palookas to flourish en masse and how easy it is replace bad pitchers with more bad pitchers.

[REDREAD]

Hopefully, Wilson will become trade bait (I haven't read anything saying that he got a no-trade clause, if he did O'Brien should be fired today) by the deadline. Maybe knowing what he makes the next couple years will give some contending team the idea to trade for him.

That's about my only upside.

Problem is, that's a very expensive way to acquire talent. You pay him about 1.8 million or so for half a year and then flip him for an assortment of Machados... For 1.8 million, you could probably convince some kids in the draft that were hard to sign to come on board and get better quality.

I know you are reaching for a silver lining here Raisor, but I just don't see it.

If we wanted to sign someone for trade bait, we should've signed Pervical.
That's a guy that potentially could have an impact in the playoffs. Wilson is not a playoff impact guy. A contender would probably prefer not to start him in the playoffs.

[westofyou]

That's a guy that potentially could have an impact in the playoffs.

That's a guy getting more cash than he should.

[REDREAD]

WMP and Graves to Bowden. .

I don't see the urgency to move Graves anymore. He's gone after this year, one way or another.

By the time he's moved this winter (if that happens), Bland Dan is going to be too slow to do anything significant, even if he's allowed to spend the payflex.

I might agree with you if we had an aggressive go-getter GM.

WMP is too much to sacrifice to get rid of Graves at this point (since dumping Graves now would probably be of minimal benefit vs letting his contract expire).

Heck, if Graves has a decent year, he's going to be VERY movable in July as a setup man/bullpen arm to a contender. A contender will pay 3 million for the second half of his contract.

[westofyou]

Heck, if Graves has a decent year, he's going to be VERY movable in July as a setup man/bullpen arm to a contender. A contender will pay 3 million for the second half of his contract.

Ifs and buts ain't candy nor nuts.

Trade him as soon as someone asks about him.