Reds sign Wilson

[cincinnati chili]

Got to know your park. Wilson's 4.36 in the elephant grass grown in 2004 was exactly as productive as his 4.64 ERA in 2003, not to mention his 4.83 and 4.88 ERAs with the Rays in 2002 and 2001.

Some evidence of this, from Lee Sinnis:

The Reds re-signed free agent P Paul Wilson to a 2 year, $8.2 million contract.

After 4.83 ERA/-8 RSAA and 4.64 ERA/-7 RSAA seasons, Wilson had a 4.36 ERA/-7 RSAA in 29 starts. He has a 4.71 career ERA, compared to his league average of 4.39, and -45 RSAA in 161 games.

Bottom line: Wilson exhibits above-average heart, but produces below average output, and now he's going to be paid a significantly above-average salary.

I actually like the guy in a root-for-the-underdog-nice-comeback-from-surgery sort of way, but not at this price.

[RFS62]

Nobody is gonna ask for Danny, IMO. We're going to have to attach him to another deal.

[REDREAD]

If the Reds get another Wilson type pitcher and a decent lefty in the pen and possibly another righty I think with this line up we can stay in the hunt and hope for an injury free miracle 99 season. .....

In order to have a chance at a 1999 miracle season, we need to add Harnisch and Neagle types -- two solid starting pitchers. Wilson is more analagous to Parris (although Wilson is better, you can't count on him to be a #1 or #2).
We'd also need to seriously shore up the pen in order to hope to contend.

[westofyou]

I actually like the guy in a root-for-the-underdog-nice-comeback-from-surgery sort of way, but not at this price.

What is the average price for a 180 inning, 30 start guy with an average ERA?

And is the market adjusting upward to change that average?

[Hubba]

:

[REDREAD]

I'm willing to bet right here, right now, that the Reds don't log 324 innings next year from pitchers with ERAs over 6.00.

Any takers?

Archive this sucker.

Hmm, interesting bet. I might take it in spring training. I need to see what relievers DanO signs.

With Hudson, Hancock, Acevado, possibly Robertson, Harang, Valentine.. I think it's a possiblity.

[REDREAD]

That's a guy getting more cash than he should.

If you're signing a guy to flip for prospects, IMO good closer is better than a #4 starter.

Now, I wouldn't have signed Percivical either, I just think it's less dumb than Wilson if you're trying to acquire trade bait
Paul Wilson is not a playoff starter. He's attractive as a bandaid in the #4/#5 slot to a contender that is a few games behind the pace.

[REDREAD]

Ifs and buts ain't candy nor nuts.

Trade him as soon as someone asks about him.

Would you give away WMP as part of the deal? That's what I meant.

Unless DanO gets and uses the payflex from a Graves dump, I'd rather just keep Graves though. For example, trading Graves in spring training and then
resigning Van Poppel for a year makes the rest worse off.

Dumping Graves is only beneficial if the payflex is available and used this year. Otherwise, I'll keep my best bullpen arm.

[westofyou]

Would I?

Yes, I would..... if any player on the Reds is due for a fall it's WMP.

Of course that's only opinion.

Otherwise, I'll keep my best bullpen arm.

That's an opinion too.

[M2]

What is the average price for a 180 inning, 30 start guy with an average ERA?

And is the market adjusting upward to change that average?

IMO, the best way to answer that is to look at the previous season, see who fits your criteria and figure the average (though possibly the median would be a more illuminating number). Using forward speculation salary figures you automatically cut out a significant group -- discount pitchers who pitch better than advertised -- because it's a subset that only comes into focus using your rearview. A year ago you'd have drawn guffaws insisting Jaret Wright, Jake Westbrook, Doug Davis, Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, John Thomson, Bronson Arroyo, Jose Lima, Jeff Suppan, Carlos Silva, Mike Maroth, Josh Fogg and Mark Hendrickson would all have good to inoffensively mediocre years.

Meanwhile it would have seemed like science fiction to assert Javier Vazquez, Bart Colon, Sidney Ponson, Derek Lowe, Jose Contreras and Esteban Loaiza would sort in behind those guys.

Anyway my guess is the median salary for ERA qualifiers with a 4.xx ERA isn't that high. Plus, the Reds need to operate in the under market in that category. Paying market value or higher for that kind of pitcher is a losing proposition for the Reds.

[REDREAD]

Would I?
Yes, I would..... if any player on the Reds is due for a fall it's WMP.
Of course that's only opinion.
That's an opinion too.

Dude, I respect your opinion.. Obviously this is a subjective issue, and I enjoy talking with you. I should've said that Graves had the best bullpenner season last year. I agree, Wagner has potential to be better than Graves. Reidling has potential to bounce back strong (at least to respectablity). There's some reasonable hope that some of the returning guys will improve.

IMO, Wily Mo, even with his OBP warts, is the best young project we have.
Meaning, I think he's a better bet than Wagner, Lopez or Claussen to be a major contributor. Now, I'm sure many disagree. But I think it's a bad idea to give away Wily Mo simply to get rid of Graves at this point. BUT, if you are assuming DanO could spend Graves' 6 million the next day on a good pitcher, it may be worth it... I will concede that point. I just don't think that's realistic. I don't think DanO can move fast enough to spend that payflex, and if he does spend it, he won't spend it wisely.. He'd buy two Lidles instead.

If the Reds are commited to moving Kearns to 3b (and it looks like he'll get an extended look there), Pena is going to get a lot of playing time.

[westofyou]

They'd be getting something back for WMP, they wouldn't trade him just to dump Graves contract... if that's what you think I think.

WMP has OB warts, major warts.

That is something that needs to be fixed.

[maniem]

I'm not sure if i'm for this signing or not. I like him as a #2 or #3 starter. If he is our big signing, i will be upset. But if we sign Clement or Perez in addition, then i really don't mind that much. Is 3.6 mil too much? I guess we'll find out next year. I noticed that his ERA had dropped every year the last 4 years. If he follows this trend, hopefully it will go down more next year. So let's say that Wilson ends up going 13-8 with 3.90 ERA next year. Is he worth $3.6 million? I think he's capable of having this type of season, although it might be the best he'll ever do.

[Redmachine2003]

How does Wilson stack up against the Cards Rotation. I don't think any of them pitched that much better than Wilson did they? The Cards had one of the best Defense's in the league to help the rotation too.

[REDREAD]

They'd be getting something back for WMP, .

Ok, then I understand. I thought the premise was to include WMP and get nothing back. In other words, include WMP to make the deal palatable.

It's still going to be a tall order to get anything good back at this point in a deal that includes Graves. He's a negative.