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Thread: OPS vs. OBP vs. BAS

  1. #91
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    Re: OPS vs. OBP vs. BAS

    I usually find Raisor's posting style to be cogent and thought provoking. After viewing his most recent attempts at sarcasm ... I hope he never returns to making sense. I especially enjoyed "because pie is good".

    That stuff is gold I tell ya, GOLD!

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  3. #92
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: OPS vs. OBP vs. BAS

    This thread got me curious, so I ran a quick and dirty regression on a few key statistics and how they correlate with runs scored per team. I simply put in runs scored as the dependent variable and made the other stats the independent variable. The best measure of correlation (R-Squared) tells us how much of the variation in runs scored is explained by this variable. Below are the results (and the P-values are very low for all items below):

    Batting Average - .64 (that's not very good and this model, in most cases, would be considered very poor in it's predictive value). Also, the residual plot showed significant autocorrelation.

    OBP - .76 - Still not great, but better than BA. Residuals look OK on this one.

    SLG - .86 - Getting warmer

    OPS - .94 - Folks, we have a winner

    BA w/ RISP - .56 (basically, no predictive value)

    Strike Outs - .003 ( :MandJ: )

    Walks - .36

    And the standard error for OPS is only 40% the size of the SE for BA.

    Also, if you compare a team's BA with RISP and compare it with the team's overall BA, there's almost NO difference across the board. Of the 30 teams, only 4 had a difference greater than 5% from their overall batting average. Only 1 team had a difference greater than 10% (which happened to be 10.9% and it was Milwaukee and it was lower).
    Last edited by MWM; 12-13-2004 at 12:01 AM.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  4. #93
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    Re: OPS vs. OBP vs. BAS

    I respect your opinion, Steel, (even if you don't think so) and I would be interested in seeing that study in print, but I also watch the majority of the Reds games that are televised. I know that my eyes are not deceiving me when I see Adam Dunn take a lot of very hittable pitches for strikes, early in counts. IF I were the only person to see that, I might feel different, but a lot of folks that I talk to, and respect, have observed the same thing. In my opinion, he gives a lot of at bats away because of it.
    Randy, it has nothing to do with respecting or not respecting an opinion in this case.

    Here's a data sample I posted back on September 16th:

    Dunn's first 56 September PA:

    <Begin cut-and-paste job>

    1st Strike Looking: 27 PA
    1st Strike Swinging: 26 PA

    2nd Strike Looking: 10 PA
    2nd Strike Swinging: 23 PA

    3rd Strike Looking: 6 PA
    3rd Strike Swinging: 25 PA

    Note: "Strike Swinging" totals includes balls hit into play with a 0, 1, or 2 strike count as well as swinging strikes. Also note that Dunn has drawn a BB 3 times this month while not taking or swinging at a single strike.

    Now, I haven't the time to track Strikes PA by PA over the course of the season but I feel that the September numbers are pretty reasonable considering that I already charted the June numbers.

    Dunn swings at about half of the first Strikes he sees. After that, Dunn has either swung and missed or swung and hit the second or third strike he sees into play 47 times. In some cases, he's fouled off multiple pitches (which I didn't track) in getting to a PA outcome.

    Considering that Dunn has only looked at strike two and three sixteen times this month, my question would be:

    "What room does Adam Dunn have to swing at a bunch of 'fat' pitches he's not swinging at currently?"

    First pitch strikes. That's it. After the first pitch, he's swinging at about 75% of the balls we can assume are strikes. Of course, not all pitches he swings and misses are in the strike zone, so Dunn has actually seen fewer true strikes than he's swung at and, of course, not all strikes taken are "fat" pitches. I simply don't see, with only 16 strikes taken after Strike one this month, where Dunn is getting all these "fat" pitches- especially considering how careful opposing hurlers are when pitching to him.

    <End cut-and-paste job>

    Dunn swung at "early-count" pitches 57% of the time over that sample.

    So yeah. Sorry, but I'm going to tell you that your (and your friends') observations are inaccurate. Your eyes are deceiving you. Dunn swings a ton. There's really no opportunity for improvement in the area of swinging earlier in counts based on the results of that data set.

    And if Dunn thinks he needs to swing at more pitches early in the count, he's wrong. He's swinging at enough of them. He's either over-thinking or he's getting bad advice.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  5. #94
    Member Cedric's Avatar
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    Re: OPS vs. OBP vs. BAS

    Let me end this thread.

    Adam Dunn is the best player the Reds have, there is ABSOLUTELY no reason for this to be discussed.

  6. #95
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: OPS vs. OBP vs. BAS

    Hate to differ, Steel, but no, my eyes are not deceiving me. I would like to see the #'s for a full season. To call my observation innacurate over a whole season, based on the numbers from two months is a bit presumtuous.

    To quote Raisor, maybe "pie is good."

  7. #96
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: OPS vs. OBP vs. BAS

    Whenver "eyes" and the actual numbers themselves diagree, alomst without exception, the eyes are wrong, I don't care how much you know about or how long you've been watching baseball. No one's eyes are that good.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  8. #97
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: OPS vs. OBP vs. BAS

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN CHAR NC
    Hate to differ, Steel, but no, my eyes are not deceiving me. I would like to see the #'s for a full season. To call my observation innacurate over a whole season, based on the numbers from two months is a bit presumtuous.
    If you'd like to see the numbers for each of Dunn's 681 Plate Appearances, then by all means feel free to track them PA-by-PA in an attempt to provide yourself a tangible counter-argument. In my post above, I explained how to go about it.

    Basically, you're asking me to believe that you've got every pitch from all Dunn's Plate Appearances hiding somewhere in your long-term memory store. It's not that I don't "trust" your ability to see or your brain's ability to determine a single pitch's location. It's just that I don't trust the human brain to be able to accurately process, store, and recall the exact velocity, movement, and location every pitch thrown to every player in every game over a week much less a season.

    Randy, you just casually dismissed hours of work I put into the subject with no data to support your position while I actually respected the opinion you currently hold enough to put in hours of work tracking it last season.

    Folks positioned the concept that Dunn doesn't swing enough. I looked into it. I spent enough time on it to determine that Dunn wasn't behaving as people perceived. I chose to spend no more time on the subject because I don't believe that Dunn just chose to behave in a wildly different manner in June and the first two weeks of September.

    It appears your new contention is that Dunn actually DID behave in a wildly different manner in June and September. If you can demonstrate that, I'll be 100% completely without-at-doubt absolutely willing to alter my position. I'd have to because I can't just casually dismiss factual supporting data should you choose to provide it.

    As an obviously intelligent guy, don't you think we'd have more productive conversations if you'd bring some supporting data to the table?
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  9. #98
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: OPS vs. OBP vs. BAS

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192
    . I especially enjoyed "because pie is good".
    Everyone likes pie.

    Even Conan the Barbarian has been known to sit down in his favorite coffee shop and eat a piece of pie.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  10. #99
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    Re: OPS vs. OBP vs. BAS

    Man oh Man. I don't know to say about some of the thing said in this thread especially
    by BadFun and Dunn Hater.
    But has I writing this I'm still in shock I say and thus I'm aving a hardtime getting my thoughts straight.
    Anyway's for me when it comes to what I want to see from Donkey next year. Is cut down on those evi strike outs.
    Say somewhere in the 150 range while keep everything else he did last year the same (and do it for his career) I would be happy.
    And why most here on this board (like me) want Dunn signed to a long term contract NOW!!!
    Is because of salary arb and the big unknown it will cause in the future for this team money wise.
    Cause has we all know even if Adam puts up the the numbers he did this for the rest of his arbitation years.
    Adam will get more and more money from Reds and no longer be (most importantly) affordable for the Reds and keep the Reds from being flexible with their payroll when it comes to making moves to help this team WIN.
    While helping the owners of the team make their money.
    "it took me back in time thru dwindling joy
    to when i was such a guilt ridden catholic boy
    im evangelical agnostic now"
    Happy New Year Todd Snider

    Yours A ChampCar Fanatic And In The Home Of Champange Velvet Beer,


    Andy K.

    Terre Haute Brewing CO.

  11. #100
    Mod Law zombie-a-go-go's Avatar
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    Re: OPS vs. OBP vs. BAS

    OMG vs. LOL
    Last edited by Chip R; 12-13-2004 at 01:41 PM. Reason: Zombie should know better than to put that last one in there
    "It's easier to give up. I'm not a very vocal player. I lead by example. I take the attitude that I've got to go out and do it. Because of who I am, I've got to give everything I've got to come back."
    -Ken Griffey Jr.

  12. #101
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    Re: OPS vs. OBP vs. BAS

    I just think Dunn will always strike out and his carreer will fade like Rob Deers did.

    At least incavilla lasted a couple years longer because he switch hit.

    Maybe Dunn can learn to switch hit?

  13. #102
    Dunnilicious creek14's Avatar
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    Re: OPS vs. OBP vs. BAS

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Lawless Fan
    I just think Dunn will always strike out and his carreer will fade like Rob Deers did.

    At least incavilla lasted a couple years longer because he switch hit.

    Maybe Dunn can learn to switch hit?
    Can we archieve this?
    Will trade this space for a #1 starter.

  14. #103
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    Re: OPS vs. OBP vs. BAS

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Lawless Fan
    I just think Dunn will always strike out and his carreer will fade like Rob Deers did.

    At least incavilla lasted a couple years longer because he switch hit.

    Maybe Dunn can learn to switch hit?

    Rob Deer had played 91 games in MLB by the time he was Dunn's age.

    Pete Incaviglia was a RH hitter.

    But please continue.

  15. #104
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: OPS vs. OBP vs. BAS

    Quote Originally Posted by BadFundamentals
    I'm not a big fan of "Runs Created" perhaps only because I think OBP, batting average, Slugging and the other individual stats tell you all you need to know.

    But....honestly, I haven't looked at that stat that much in detail.

    Here's your chance.

    In the majors in 2004, Runs Created was 97.3% accurate in predicting Runs Scored (23,376 actual runs scored vs 24,031.2 Runs Created)

    The RC formula was slightly even more accurate when it comes to the Reds. 97.4% accurate (750 actual runs vs 770.1 Runs Created).

    In other words, we can be over 97% sure that Adam Dunn created nearly 125 runs for the Reds in 2004, or approx 16% of the Reds total offense. He ranked 9th in the NL behind Bonds, Helton, Pujols, Abreu, Berkman, Beltre, Edmonds, and Drew.

    That's with all the strikeouts, by the way. If he's going to create 125 runs a year, I don't care if he K's 200 times or hits .250.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  16. #105
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: OPS vs. OBP vs. BAS

    Just went to look at something else. Adam Dunn struck out 24 more times per month then Albert Pujols, yet, Pujols created only 3.7 more runs then Dunn per month.

    Pujols also had 65 points of batting average on Dunn. All that, and he created less then four more runs per month then Dunn.
    Last edited by Raisor; 12-13-2004 at 09:32 PM.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."


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