# Thread: Strike out = to any other out?

1. ## Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Reds will need to score enough runs to stay in the game but then count on doing little things to squeeze out wins.
But if they focus on getting players who excel at these little things at the expense of doing the things that score "lots" of runs (ala Adam Dunn), then they're going to be so far behind in every game that it won't matter. Surely you see that!

And if you're point is that they need players who do all the things that Adam does, yet still possess those "little things" you think are so important, then how much are those guys going to cost? And how many are there? Give me a few examples of these types of players you want to the Reds to have on their team.

2. ## Re: Strike out = to any other out?

I haven't posted this in a long time and I'll ONLY do it because you made me do it.

Code:
```Year	BA	BA with RISP
2004	0.266	0.239
2003	0.215	0.170
2002	0.249	0.208
2001	0.262	0.203```
That's an average of .43 points LOWER in rbi situations than an already low batting average.
Since you've asked for it, and ignored it last time...

Do you agree with the following?

Double > Single

Triple > Double

Home Run > Triple

Well, do you?

3. ## Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Originally Posted by MWM
Riddle me this. How do you explain the following splits for Dunn in 2004?
With runners on base, his split was .265/.423/.527/.950

With RISP .239/.438/.514/.952

On second base only .237/.517/.316/.833

On first and second .318/.424/.636/1.070

RISP w/ 2 out .264/.459/.556/1.015

Again, I couldn't disagree more with you on you post where you are skeptical about situational adjustments hitters can make. HOWEVER, I will say this, that fundamentally sound hitters don't necessarily "consciously" have to make the adjustments. They already hit the ball where it is pitched and do countless other little things in every at bat that predisposes them to be better situationally. Hitters with bad fundamentals just the opposite.

As for your RISP stats, since those are only based on ONE season we're really only talking about 34 hits spread over the various situations. The .318 is the only one that would really catch my eye - the others for that small a sample size could just be expected variance.

How many actual hits/ABs make up that .318?

4. ## Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Here are Dunn's RC/27 with RISP since 2002 (don't have 2001, sorry)

2002- 6.39 (vs 6.73 overall)
2003- 5.54 (vs 5.95 overall)
2004- 8.79 (vs 7.92 overall)

Not much of a difference one way or the other..

5. ## Re: Strike out = to any other out?

MWM, I'm on record, I want Dunn on the team at the right price. I have a hunch about his ceiling as a player but it is just MY "hunch".

I want him on the team batting SIXTH in the order, playing left field, hopefully hitting 40+ homers and hopefully knocking some doubles IF he can be had at \$\$\$ you'd expect to pay for a guy you're intending to bat 6th.

That is where I'm skeptical. I suspect in today's game with its emphasis/value on the "Homerun" and OBP that the Reds will have to overpay to keep him.

6. ## Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Originally Posted by Raisor
Since you've asked for it, and ignored it last time...

Do you agree with the following?

Double > Single

Triple > Double

Home Run > Triple

Well, do you?

Yes.

7. ## Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Originally Posted by Raisor
Since you've asked for it, and ignored it last time...

Do you agree with the following?

Double > Single

Triple > Double

Home Run > Triple

Well, do you?

ahem...is this thing on?

8. ## Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Yes.

If you agree with that, then why on earth would you continue to use a stat (BA) that ignores the fact that single<double<triple<homerun AND ignores other ways to get on base, especially when we DO have easy to find and understand stats that do do those things?

There, I feel better.

9. ## Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Yes.
raisor, i got this one.

then why give so much weight to a stat that measures them equally?

10. ## Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Originally Posted by TRF
raisor, i got this one.

then why give so much weight to a stat that measures them equally?

11. ## Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Originally Posted by Raisor
If you agree with that, then why on earth would you continue to use a stat (BA) that ignores the fact that single<double<triple<homerun AND ignores other ways to get on base, especially when we DO have easy to find and understand stats that do do those things?

There, I feel better.
ha ha... fair enough. I like SLG too. I think BA still has its place but I like SLG too. I use BA often times probably just out of old habits. Not sure I've even checked how his SLG compares to his (SLG with RISP) the last 4 years, but I will.

12. ## Re: Strike out = to any other out?

ha ha... fair enough. I like SLG too. I think BA still has its place but I like SLG too. I use BA often times probably just out of old habits. Not sure I've even checked how his SLG compares to his (SLG with RISP) the last 4 years, but I will.

I wasn't talking about SLG alone (notice the "and other ways of getting on base).

Go back to the beginning of this thread. MWM posted a list of how accurate certain stats are related to runs scored. OPS was far and away at the top of his list. Runs Created is even higher.

We have a stat in RC that was 97.4% accurate league wide in predicting Runs. If there's a more accurate stat to use in comparing players, I've yet to see it.

13. ## Re: Strike out = to any other out?

BF, Obi Wan is wise in the ways of OPS. You would do well to listen.

14. ## Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Back to the strike out thing for a second.

Let's use a real life example, shall we? Sean Casey and Adam Dunn. I think we can all agree that they were the two best offensive players on the Reds this season.

If you look at just their Batting Average and K numbers though, you'd think that Casey was head and shoulders better then Dunn. (324 vs 266 and 195 vs 36). But if you look at Runs Created (which, as has been proven is +97% accurate), they are nearly identical (Dunn 110.04 per 600 TPA and Casey 104.8 RC per 600 TPA). Why is that? It's because they're OBP/SLG are nearly identical:

Dunn 388/569
Casey 381/534

If this doesn't show how useless BA and K's are vs OBP/SLG, then I give up.

15. ## Re: Strike out = to any other out?

Originally Posted by TRF
BF, Obi Wan is wise in the ways of OPS. You would do well to listen.

These aren't the droids you're looking for..

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