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Thread: Strike out = to any other out?

  1. #31
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Strike out = to any other out?

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003
    If a strikeout benefits the pitcher's team, that can't be good for the hitter or his team. If a strikeout doesn't hurt the hitter's team, then what is it, other than something that just looks good on a pitcher's resume?
    An out's not a good thing for a hitter regardless of the nature of the out. You're getting tied up in micro stuff.

    This is all macro. The way you figure out how well a hitter does in terms of out avoidance is OB. A .400 OB doesn't care if your .600 out percentage is tilted toward Ks or groundouts or flyballs or third strike foul bunts.

    As for pitchers, the individual strikeout does not benefit the pitcher or his team any more than any number of other outs. As I said before, Ks are a signpost statistic, a number that usually indicates other things are going well (or, even more important, that they will continue to go well). A low K pitcher can have a great season here and there, Bill James uses Mark Fidrych as the poster boy for this, but over time the pitchers who can't get a decent number of Ks tend to fall back toward mediocrity. Strikeout pitchers are your best bet to be repeatably good, game-to-game and year-to-year. Cory Lidle was a great case in point last season. He doesn't strike out many hitters, but he pitched a few brilliant games last season. Problem is, he can't do that consistently and his occasional brilliance got more than offset by a fairly regular number of stinkers he tossed in there. There's a trap door there for guys like Lidle that doesn't exist for pitchers like Roger Clemens.

    What the pitcher needs to get his job done in the macro, over the course of years, is the opposite of what what a hitter needs to get his job done in the macro. Pitchers need outs and it's hard for them to collect those outs consistently without the K being a big part of it (at least 25%). Hitters need hits and walks and it doesn't really matter what they're doing when they aren't getting those.
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  3. #32
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    Re: Strike out = to any other out?

    The thinking behind low strikeout pitching is that if too many balls are allowed into play, some will find holes and go for hits. If they don't show up one year, they will the next.

    This is true of the hitter as well -- a few more bats-on-the-ball means a few more hits.

    However, for the hitter, the value of a few more seeing-I singles is diluted because of playing time.

    In his much more limited playing time, those singles can spell disaster for pitchers.
    Last edited by Rojo; 12-14-2004 at 01:15 PM.
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  4. #33
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    Re: Strike out = to any other out?

    You are citing stats to make your "pitching" point but then denying that they would carry the equivalent weight from the opposite (batter's) perspective.

    <Isaac Newton rolling in his grave>

    (as has been noted) K's have extra "situational" value over and above other outs particularly in late and close games. There is no substitute for a lights out closer who can get a STRIKEOUT when it is needed.

    I agree with your point about K's as a "signpost" or "indicator" attribute. An ability to get some strikeouts indicates a pitcher has an "out" pitch of some sort which can be unhittable. This serves a pitcher well on an at bat basis AND over the long haul. Also, most strikeout pitchers (with some exceptions) have heat. No substitute for a little velocity when control/breaking pitches are failing. At one point in time velocity was all scouts cared about when hunting for pitchers. They figured they could teach the control/breaking stuff later.

    The flip side (for batters) also holds true. Situationally, except for a double play, there are many cases when a strikeout is the worst possible outcome for an at bat. Additionally, strikeouts are also an "indicator" attribute for hitters. Generally speaking, fundamentally good hitters (the ones most likely to be most consistent game in and game out in multiple situations over a career) will not lead their teams/leagues in strikeouts.


    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    An out's not a good thing for a hitter regardless of the nature of the out. You're getting tied up in micro stuff.

    This is all macro. The way you figure out how well a hitter does in terms of out avoidance is OB. A .400 OB doesn't care if your .600 out percentage is tilted toward Ks or groundouts or flyballs or third strike foul bunts.

    As for pitchers, the individual strikeout does not benefit the pitcher or his team any more than any number of other outs. As I said before, Ks are a signpost statistic, a number that usually indicates other things are going well (or, even more important, that they will continue to go well). A low K pitcher can have a great season here and there, Bill James uses Mark Fidrych as the poster boy for this, but over time the pitchers who can't get a decent number of Ks tend to fall back toward mediocrity. Strikeout pitchers are your best bet to be repeatably good, game-to-game and year-to-year. Cory Lidle was a great case in point last season. He doesn't strike out many hitters, but he pitched a few brilliant games last season. Problem is, he can't do that consistently and his occasional brilliance got more than offset by a fairly regular number of stinkers he tossed in there. There's a trap door there for guys like Lidle that doesn't exist for pitchers like Roger Clemens.

    What the pitcher needs to get his job done in the macro, over the course of years, is the opposite of what what a hitter needs to get his job done in the macro. Pitchers need outs and it's hard for them to collect those outs consistently without the K being a big part of it (at least 25%). Hitters need hits and walks and it doesn't really matter what they're doing when they aren't getting those.

  5. #34
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    Re: Strike out = to any other out?

    The flip side (for batters) also holds true. Situationally, except for a double play, there are many cases when a strikeout is the worst possible outcome for an at bat. Additionally, strikeouts are also an "indicator" attribute for hitters. Generally speaking, fundamentally good hitters (the ones most likely to be most consistent game in and game out in multiple situations over a career) will not lead their teams/leagues in strikeouts.
    I used to think this way too. But put it in the context of your favorite whiiping boy AD.

    I believe someone on the board said that 78% of Dunner's K's came with no ability to advance a runner with an out (ie, nobody on, runners on with 2 outs)

    So that means that 22% of Dunn's K's, (not his outs) were with runners on and could be advanced. Quite frankly, I can live with that.

    so 78% of the time Dunn was doing what Dunn does... He swings hard. If he changes this approach, his power will diminish.. not might, will.

    Thank you, but i prefer to keep the ninth best offensive player in all of baseball on the right track.

    Are K's any different than ground outs? both are outs, but there is a potential good and bad to the ground out. Error: good. DP: bad. The DP is the more likely of the two to occur.

    A K is a K is a K.
    Last edited by TRF; 12-14-2004 at 05:06 PM.
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  6. #35
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Strike out = to any other out?

    ANd as M2 stated, it's all about sample size in regards to pitchers, especially relievers.
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

  7. #36
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    Re: Strike out = to any other out?

    Additionally, strikeouts are also an "indicator" attribute for hitters. Generally speaking, fundamentally good hitters (the ones most likely to be most consistent game in and game out in multiple situations over a career) will not lead their teams/leagues in strikeouts.
    Unfortunately, your posts fit nothing but your own personal definition of "fundamentally good hitter". Fundamentally good hitters DO strike out. Strikeouts are a power and patience residual- both key to "fundamental" hitting.

    As with your fatally flawed "KRISP" neo-stat, the issue is that you cannot correlate offensive strikeouts with a lack of result (i.e. Team Runs Scored or individual player offensive Run Value).

    All offensive strikeouts tell us is that a player has a propensity to strike out. Without a demonstrable effect from an offensive perspective (which you can't demonstrate), your position ends up being nothing.

    What you've done is the opposite of objective analysis. You hate offensive strikeouts, thus you position your points around the concept that strikeouts are bad for an offense without actually being able to demonstrate that strikeouts are bad for an offense.

    "A hitter striking out can be bad sometimes."

    "Therefore strikeouts for a hitter are bad all the time."

    "Therefore hitters who strikeout most are always bad."

    You claim to be attentive to situation while broadly over-generalizing occurrances that may or may not be bad without attending to performance attributes that don't support your position while over-emphasizing things that do support your position.

    That's as non-objective as it gets.

    Instead, you should be asking yourself, "What effect do offensive strikeouts have on team and individual performance?"

    If you did, you're answer would be, "Not much of anything."

    A review of "KRISP" later. But not on this board.
    Last edited by SteelSD; 12-14-2004 at 04:54 PM.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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    Re: Strike out = to any other out?

    There is a stat about the NFL that X percent of games are decided by a field goal or less (high percentage).

    Not sure what the average run differential is in baseball but....best guess ....between 2 and 3 ? I'm sure it's not more than could be reasonably attained in one inning.

    Again, nothing better than a lights out closer to come in and strikeout side to end a game. You leave nothing to chance. The more strikeout-prone a team's players are the more likely they are to go down quietly without a chance..............

  9. #38
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Strike out = to any other out?

    You think a team of Adam Dunns are more likely to go down without a chance?

    In one mythical ninth inning? Sure those three Dunns might all strike out, but more often, two of them will walk, and one of them will homer.

    I'll take my chances.
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

  10. #39
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    Re: Strike out = to any other out?

    Quote Originally Posted by wheels
    You think a team of Adam Dunns are more likely to go down without a chance?

    In one mythical ninth inning? Sure those three Dunns might all strike out, but more often, two of them will walk, and one of them will homer.

    I'll take my chances.
    God forbid you mention that a team of Adam Dunn's would rarely need a come-from-behind victory in the Ninth.

    Because a team of nine Adam Dunn's would score about 8 Runs per Game.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  11. #40
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    Re: Strike out = to any other out?

    Of course.

    You and I may never agree about what the numbers tell us but I bet we do agree that baseball is something of a "numbers" game.

    What do Marty and Joe talk about "if you have a bat you're dangerous" ?? Well, unless you don't hit ANYTHING with the bat.

    You give yourself no "chance" of reaching base (other than BB) if you don't hit anything. Situationally and in late innings (things that don't show up when you view the SEASON on a whole with just cumulative numbers) - the moments that separate winning TEAMS from losing teams - is when offensive strikeouts kill you the most.


    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Fundamentally good hitters DO strike out.

  12. #41
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    Re: Strike out = to any other out?

    You think Lindner et al would pay the $$$ for a team of Adam Dunns?

    unlikely............

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    God forbid you mention that a team of Adam Dunn's would rarely need a come-from-behind victory in the Ninth.

    Because a team of nine Adam Dunn's would score about 8 Runs per Game.

  13. #42
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Strike out = to any other out?

    He just needs to pay for the one he has.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  14. #43
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    Re: Strike out = to any other out?

    Quote Originally Posted by BadFundamentals
    You are citing stats to make your "pitching" point but then denying that they would carry the equivalent weight from the opposite (batter's) perspective.
    Translation. The argument was way above my head because that's not at all what he was saying.

    You put WAAAAAAYYYY too much emphasis on "situational" stats. If a team performs well in the early innings, then those late situations where you need a "clutch" hit will be much fewer. I've always believed that the idea that early game ABs count less than late inning ABs doesn't make a lot of sense. The idea is to score more runs than your opponent regardless of when those runs come.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  15. #44
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Strike out = to any other out?

    Great stuff Steel, but it's kind of like being forced to defend walking upright. You're 100% right and yet you have no hope of winning the argument.

    FWIW, Mike Schmidt led the league in Ks four times, finished in the top three in the NL in Ks nine times, led his team in Ks nine times. Tony Perez, famed for his consistency in RBI situations, led the BRM in strikeouts almost every season (except when Johnny Bench nudged him in 1975 and 1976) and finished in the league top 10 in Ks 1969-1975, 77-78, 80. He drove in 1,017 runs in those 10 seasons.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  16. #45
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    Re: Strike out = to any other out?

    A "team" of Adam Dunns is not an option.

    The options are whether you take your chances with:

    1)Casey, Kearns, Pena, Freel and A.J. Barnett or
    2)Casey, Kearns, Pena, Dunn and Todd Van Popple

    (for example)


    Quote Originally Posted by wheels
    You think a team of Adam Dunns are more likely to go down without a chance?

    In one mythical ninth inning? Sure those three Dunns might all strike out, but more often, two of them will walk, and one of them will homer.

    I'll take my chances.


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