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Thread: Why All The Negativity?

  1. #76
    archiebunker
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    I agree too. I'm starting to think DanO is here posting stuff under different names.

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  3. #77
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    but woy knows as well as anyone that HS pitchers are the biggest crapshoot of all.
    Yep and if you have to pull Kerry Wood out as a "recent example" (the guy hit MLB 7 seasons ago!!) then you know there are lot of loser picks out there selling insurance now.

  4. #78
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Drafting HS position players isn't much better than drafting HS pitchers. Nomar and Larkin both played college baseball, they should not be on the SS list.

  5. #79
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    Drafting HS position players isn't much better than drafting HS pitchers. Nomar and Larkin both played college baseball, they should not be on the SS list.

    eh. good point. Jeter and ARod still beat the list woy posted. thanks woy

    BTW both Kearns and Dunn were drafted out of HS.

    HS hitters drafted in the 1st round are far less a likely to fail than HS pitchers.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  6. #80
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    eh. good point. Jeter and ARod still beat the list woy posted. thanks woy

    BTW both Kearns and Dunn were drafted out of HS.

    HS hitters drafted in the 1st round are far less a likely to fail than HS pitchers.
    Dunn was a 2nd round draft pick. As was Larkin, out of high school.

    And high school position players are more likely to fail than college players(both pitchers and positions players).

  7. #81
    Member Ryan the Reds Fan's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Above average players are acquired by teams all the time. Many as Free Agents, many via trade.

    I could throw out the names "Matt Clement" and "Odalis Perez", but all that ends up leading to is claims of "Oh, the Reds couldn't have had either of those players at any price...etc...etc." Defeatist rhetoric.

    I disagree with that reasoning, but it appears to be pervasive. I fail to see the logic behind the concept that, because the Reds didn't sign Player A that means they couldn't have possibly signed Player A. The fact that something didn't happen in no way means that it couldn't have.

    Same tune, different notes as last season. Last year the defense was that O'Brien needed time to evaluate and that the Reds didn't have any money to spend. But now that he's had that time and has the money, what does he do? Spend it on average-to-below-average players, that's what.

    And O'Brien's praised for making the hampster-wheel "effort" to make the team better. I'll be supportive of the guy as soon as he actually DOES make the Reds significantly better.

    157 Runs. That's the improvment it'll take just to get the Reds to 81-81 in 2005. I don't see anything achieved this offseason that will significantly impact that number. Nada.

    Good General Managers make things happen that truly benefit their clubs. They find ways to do it.

    And it's not like folks have unrealistic expectations. Identify and acquire an above average performer who'll really help the Reds. Make it happen.

    O'Brien hasn't. Maybe...just maybe...some of the negativity from folks is tied to that one simple concept?

    Just a thought.
    Defeatist Rhetoric??? What if it's the truth? "The fact that something didn't happen in no way means that it couldn't have." It doesn't mean it could have either. Ok so let's assume for the sake of it, that Perez and Clement and Miller said no to the Reds, what would you have done differently, who would you have signed, for what offer? What leads you to believe that your deals could have been done?

  8. #82
    MarsArmyGirl RosieRed's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    What does it really matter if there are some "negative" people, or some "negative" opinions out there? Why should everyone agree with everyone else? The Reds just signed an average/lucky pitcher for an extremely large sum of money. Why can't people question that move?

    Personally, I'm cautiously optimistic about the 2005 season. I think the sum of the moves does improve the team. But on a case-by-case basis, none of the newly acquired players gives me much reason to rejoice. Even when taken as a whole, it's my opinion that the team only marginally improved, at least on paper. I'm still worried about trading an outfielder (okay, an outfielder named Dunn or Kearns), and I'm not going to rest easy while the speculation of such a trade is still rampant.

    I am more than willing to see how the season unfolds, and I'm still as big a fan of the team as I was yesterday morning. So what does it matter if I think the Milton signing is worrisome?

  9. #83
    Member Ryan the Reds Fan's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21
    Why the negativity? Because once again, we have to depend on "if's" and "maybe's" and "hope so's" and "question marks" and "keeps us IN the game" and all the other cliches we are sick of hearing.

    The smoke and mirrors on this year's model may be a little more shiney and a little more flashy and a whole lot more expensive than last year's model, but it is still smoke and mirrors.
    If's, maybe's, hope so's, questions marks and Keeps us in the game's. Tell me one sure thing in baseball, isn't everything a gamble? Is there any guarantee that even the big unit does well next year? Could it not be the year he finally bottoms out at his age? Could Odalis not sink in a new stadium that isn't so pitcher friendly? What else does any team have to hang it's head on but if's, maybes and hope so's?

  10. #84
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    Dunn was a 2nd round draft pick. As was Larkin, out of high school.

    And high school position players are more likely to fail than college players(both pitchers and positions players).
    i specified the round you didn't. Dunn's committment to UT allowed him to drop to the second round Kudos to JimBo for recognizing that there was a chance to get two first round talents.

    When HS position players hit big in the majors, we equate their names with the HOF.

    For some reason, I don't see Josh Beckett in the HOF. Kerry Wood Maybe, but not Beckett. or anyone else on the list woy posted.

    the point is if you pick a HS pitcher in the first round, unless you have the first pick, and that HS pitcher is the concencus pick, then you more than likely punted your first pick.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  11. #85
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Are the Reds in a better position to win in 2005 than 2004? YES.

    Are the Reds in a better position to win in 2007 and 2008 than 2004? No evidence of that.

  12. #86
    Member Ryan the Reds Fan's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    Ryan and TR name the last 5 HS pitcher drafted in the first round to make a significant impact in the Major Leagues.

    Now name the last 5 SS taken in the first round to make a significant impact in the major leagues.

    Not a lot of ARods on the pitching side is there?

    Randa is a 35 year old 3B with no pop, and average at best OB skills. Everything about him screams stay away. If you don't like Freel at third, let him battle Ed E. for the spot, and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. Oh, and you save a million bucks while you are at it.

    On top of all that, read the article i believe woy posted about Milton from BP concerning his knee.
    TRF, I never have nor never will claim to be a draft guru, so I couldn't tell you any of the things there, but I can tell you you can't just throw Bailey away b/c he was straight out of high school, tell me this, has there ever been a great pitcher come straight out of high school? Why can't that be Bailey? Randa to me is what this team needs, a solid type defender, who is a team player, a players player. Who can bat in the bottom of the line up and hit 30-40 doubles a year and get 75-90 RBI's. And on Milton's knee, I did read the article, it's scary, but it's a year old as well. Milton had no knee problems that I know of last year.

  13. #87
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Krusty, what board are you reading?

    Seems to me most posters love the moves DanO's made.

    My takes on the various moves:

    Wilson - Shouldn't have been re-signed. Has done all he can to be a below average pitcher the past four years and could be on the verge of a slide (there's some strong evidence for that in fact).

    Ortiz - Never was that good a pitcher and already has hit his slide. Best case scenario, IMO, is he pitches like Cory Lidle last season -- lots of innings, lots of runs.

    Bullpen - Historically the Reds have collected younger power arms for bullpen duty. DanO clearly prefers older control pitchers, or at least that's what he's brought in. Mercker doesn't throw a lot of innings. We'll have to see if Weber's healthy. Glom's the key acquisition. Looks like a mediocre unit unless kids like Ryan Wagner and Todd Coffey step up and have big seasons.

    Randa - Glove helps, bat hurts.

    Milton - The Reds are paying him like he's something a whole lot better than what he is. I was hoping other clubs, the Yankees for instance, would be foolish enough to throw gobs of money at this guy. In fact, back in October I figured he'd make a pretty good desperation yardstick, that he was one of the offseason's booby prizes, that you could assume any team that signed him had more cash than brains. Not going to change that opinion just because the Reds wound up being the team that landed him.

    Doesn't look like it adds up to very good team to me. Though I'm in a distinct minority on that.

    What do you suggest the Reds should have done with the players available? All of the players that the Reds signed are better than the player they are replacing. You have to realize the market. It is my belief that the Reds stole Paul Wilson, in this market. I'll be the first to tell you that he is not a #1 pitcher or even a #3 pitcher on most teams, but in this market, he is worth every penny that the Reds signed him for. Do you not think that if he was out there right now that someone wouldn't give him more? Joe Randa is better than Ryan Freel, I like Ryan, but I don't think he will be as successful as Joe Randa has been over the long term.

    I think that Eric Milton will prove to be a very good pitcher. Was he worth 25.5 million over 3 years? Probably not, but who is? It is my belief that very few players are worth the kind of money that they get, but that is the current market. If the Reds want to be contenders, or at least, a Major League Baseball team, they have to spend what the market bares at the time. You can't keep hoping that Todd Van Poppel or a Jimmy Anderson has a career year. I would much rather give the money to Milton based on the kind of arm he has.

    Kent Mercker is a premiere left-handed specialist. He is simply one of the best lefties out there. Do you not think that Boston, New York, LA, etc, would not love to have this guy? I think that we simply got lucky getting him due to location. As for Weathers and Weber, I don't know about them, I haven't watched them enough the past couple of years to really give you an opinion on them.

    Ramon Ortiz, sure we should have probably waited and tried to sign him on the open market, but I highly doubt we could have gotten him for any less than, if you add up Mosely and the money, what we signed him for.

    If the Reds will sign 1 more starter and make a trade for a shortsop, I have no reason to believe that they won't make a run at the wildcard, at least. Don't forget that Houston and Chicago won't be nearly as good as they have been. St. Louis, they have the hitting, but they have lost some key pieces such as Kline, Matheny, and Womack. They did get a great pitcher, but it's very hard to return to the top of the mountain. I think the Reds have a realistic chance of finishing with 90 wins and the wildcard. Do I bet the farm on it, no, but I think it's realistic if we can add a couple more players.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  14. #88
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ryan the Reds Fan
    Defeatist Rhetoric??? What if it's the truth? "The fact that something didn't happen in no way means that it couldn't have." It doesn't mean it could have either. Ok so let's assume for the sake of it, that Perez and Clement and Miller said no to the Reds, what would you have done differently, who would you have signed, for what offer? What leads you to believe that your deals could have been done?
    Ok, let's assume that only Eric Milton was truly available and that no other talent could have possibly wanted to come to Cincinnati at any price for the sake of argument.

    I'd have put my checkbook back in my pocket and would have kindly thanked Eric Milton for considering the Reds. I would have saved that cash to be used at a later date...maybe when a high-dollar pitcher would have been available in a trade after his team figured out that they were out of the race.

    Of course, we're assuming that no one else was possibly available at any price. I disagree with that position but, if true, then doing nothing was preferable to signing Eric Milton- particularly since the Reds gave him four million dollars before he'd thrown a single pitch for the franchise.
    Last edited by SteelSD; 12-28-2004 at 01:56 PM.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
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  15. #89
    MarsArmyGirl RosieRed's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ryan the Reds Fan
    Defeatist Rhetoric??? What if it's the truth? "The fact that something didn't happen in no way means that it couldn't have." It doesn't mean it could have either. Ok so let's assume for the sake of it, that Perez and Clement and Miller said no to the Reds, what would you have done differently, who would you have signed, for what offer? What leads you to believe that your deals could have been done?
    Sometimes it's the moves you don't make that help your club. Or something like that.

    I'm not Steel, but I'll step in and say this: If the Reds couldn't find a starting pitcher that is actually good, or a starting pitcher that is average but could be had for less than $25.5M, then why not just NOT sign one? Why not take that $25M and go to Dunn and say "We recognize what we have in you, and we want you around for some years in the future. Let's talk LTC."

    Regardless of all of our speculation, it is not OUR job to improve this team. It is Dan O'Brien's job. And what exactly has he done? Acquired average, and in some cases below average players, some of whom may or may not have carpal tunnel or a knee with no cartilage in it, all for quite a few dollars.

  16. #90
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    the point is if you pick a HS pitcher in the first round, unless you have the first pick, and that HS pitcher is the concencus pick, then you more than likely punted your first pick.
    It is more of a risk but there is always that possibility that Homer ends up being a Beckett or Wood or Greincke.

    While Homer was a risky pick as Nelson would have been, can't say it was a bad pick until he does not succeed.

    The safe pick would have been Townsend.


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