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Thread: Why All The Negativity?

  1. #121
    Member Playadlc's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Oh, it's happened. And rather recently at that:

    2001 Anaheim Angels

    Runs Scored- 691
    Runs Allowed- 730

    2002 Anaheim Angels

    Runs Scored- 851 (+160)
    Runs Allowed- 644 (-86)

    Run Differential Swing- 246

    I've done some research on that in the past, and what happened in Anaheim in 2002 is truly historical.

    But alas, where the Angels needed a swing of only 39 Runs to get to the .500 mark, the Reds need 157. To get to the playoffs? Well, let's just say that betting on a second lightning strike is generally a bad wager.
    Not to get completely off track here, but how do injuries play into the Pythagorean? Like last year we didn't have Griffey the entire 2nd half and Kearns for basically the entire year. Those are arguably our best two players and they missed a considerable amount of time. You have to think our run differential would have been a lot closer had those two played longer.
    DLC11@Insightbb.com

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  3. #122
    Member Ryan the Reds Fan's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    I know Flyer, I wanted to go at it from this angle, he could have all you said and still go 5-15. And I understand the Saber folks are all about those stats when they are looking at potential, but do they matter if he goes 20-7 with a 4.80 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, or for that matter if he goes 20-7 does it matter what any of the rest of his stats are? Well, that's an argument for another thread. I don't disagree with saber evaluation, only that I believe some only look at that and not other factors.

  4. #123
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by Playadlc
    but how do injuries play into the Pythagorean?
    They don't. It is based on run differential, not what may have happened if everyone was healthy.

    BTW, if you're expecting a healthy Jr in 2005 I have a bridge and some swampland you might like to buy.

  5. #124
    Member Playadlc's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    They don't. It is based on run differential, not what may have happened if everyone was healthy.

    BTW, if you're expecting a healthy Jr in 2005 I have a bridge and some swampland you might like to buy.
    Okay. I never said I expected Jr. to stay healthy the entire year. But there is a chance he can, right? My only point is that if Kearns and Griffey stay healthy, I think there is a good chance for this team to score more runs than their opponents for the year.
    DLC11@Insightbb.com

  6. #125
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ryan the Reds Fan
    but do they matter if he goes 20-7 with a 4.80 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, or for that matter if he goes 20-7 does it matter what any of the rest of his stats are?
    Yes it does because the W-L stat has too much noise in the data. If the Reds are giving Milton enough support to win 20 with a 4.8ERA you can count on the fact that some other Reds pitcher is getting the bad luck of pitching with poor run support. Unless you think the Reds are going to score 1000+ runs this year.

  7. #126
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ryan the Reds Fan
    No way Milton has a good year? No way he's worth that money? Say Milton wins 20 games, what do you say then?
    I'd say we're living inside of your solipsistic universe.

    Say Eric Milton has yet another season with an ERA in high 4.00s (career 4.76 ERA), surrendering gobs of homers along the way. In other words, say Eric Milton pitches like he's Eric Milton, what do you say then?
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  8. #127
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by Playadlc
    But there is a chance he can, right?
    Yes there is. However, counting on it would be foolhardy.

    If the Reds are smart they should count on no more than 250 ABs from Jr.

  9. #128
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    solipsistic universe.
    Thanks, Howard.

    ----> [goes off to look that one up]

  10. #129
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Ok I did some quick numbers crunching using the ballpark adjustment on ESPN
    I assumed that the pitchers pitched 1/2 their innings at home and adjusted their ERAs from their old team to GABP:
    ERA Home Runs
    Cincinnati 0.847 1.048
    Philly 1.024 1.134
    Anaheim 0.972 1.062

    Assume 50% of innings and Homers occur at home Adjusted Adjusted
    2004 ERA 2004 HR Adjusted ERA Adjusted HR
    Eric Milton 4.75 43 4.339477539 41.36948854
    Ramon Ortiz 4.43 16 4.145149177 15.89453861

    While a 4.33 and 4.14 isn't amazing its much much better than anything else we had last year. Between Claussen, Van Popple, Acevedo and Sanchez started about 50 games last year. With ERAs - 5.9,6.0,6.1 and 7.1. Milton and Ortiz starting based on last years numbers means the Reds give up about 60 less runs.

    I didn't look at the bullpen but you have to figure it will give up a lot less runs also. Get Kearns or Griffey healthy most of the year, and there could be a remarkable turnaround.

  11. #130
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Without negativity we would all be Yankee fans.
    ...And this one belongs to the Reds!!

  12. #131
    Member Ryan the Reds Fan's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    I'd say we're living inside of your solipsistic universe.

    Say Eric Milton has yet another season with an ERA in high 4.00s (career 4.76 ERA), surrendering gobs of homers along the way. In other words, say Eric Milton pitches like he's Eric Milton, what do you say then?
    I say it's still better than what we had before we signed him. But I'll have to wait and see what happens.

  13. #132
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    I don't get the Griffey love. Even his "healthy" half he wasn't a great ballplayer, lesser than Casey and Dunn. Even if he is "healthy", I am not sure he is a better player than WMP right now. His best role is swapping DL spots with Kearns every 1-2 months :allovrjr:

    .

  14. #133
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    I'll tell you what there is a lot of fire in Reds fans these days. Did you see the Milton signed post. 550 replies and 12,964 views. For the off season that's pretty impressive.

    Just for the record I"m very positive on the Reds and am very excited. It's not really my job as a fan to worry about who paid what for who. I just see the Reds making an effort to retain talent and add talent. Upgrades all around mean a more competative team and that's what I'm excited about. Face it. Winning a WS takes not only skill from players, but a lot of luck. You could add Schilling, Randy Johnson, and Pedro and no WS is guaranteed. I just know the other teams in the division are not much stronger if not weaker and we are much better, deeper, etc. etc.

    Go Reds! :gac:
    Last edited by Reds1; 12-28-2004 at 04:09 PM.
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

  15. #134
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by Playadlc
    Not to get completely off track here, but how do injuries play into the Pythagorean? Like last year we didn't have Griffey the entire 2nd half and Kearns for basically the entire year. Those are arguably our best two players and they missed a considerable amount of time. You have to think our run differential would have been a lot closer had those two played longer.
    Actually, using reasonable projections and rate stats, you can create a Runs Created model that can be adjusted by PA for offensive players. So yes, you can factor injuries in to a team's Run Differential before the season starts if you want to. You can do the same with Pitchers.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  16. #135
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Why All The Negativity?

    Quote Originally Posted by Aronchis
    I don't get the Griffey love. Even his "healthy" half he wasn't a great ballplayer, lesser than Casey and Dunn. Even if he is "healthy", I am not sure he is a better player than WMP right now. His best role is swapping DL spots with Kearns every 1-2 months :allovrjr:

    .
    Them be fightin' words roun' here.


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