Why? You didn't have to wait when you were inventing the unlikely animal that is Eric Milton 20-game winner and resident ace.Originally Posted by Ryan the Reds Fan
So what if the likely occurs? What if what you've seen is what you get with Eric Milton?
You're pretty quick to conclude that an entire section of posters here are awful, negative folks and thus I ask again, say Eric Milton pitches like he's Eric Milton, what do you say then?
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Ok I lied about the 60 runs that Ortiz and Milton would have saved us.
Acevedo (157 IP,144 Earned Runs), Van Poppel (115,78), Claussen (66,45), Sanchez (14,12) together pitched 352 innings and gave up 279 Earned Runs.
If Ortiz and Milton pitch 180 innings and have the same adjusted ballpark ERAs as last year - (4.13 for Ortiz, 4.33 Milton) They would give up 83 and 87 Earned Runs or 170 in 360 Innings.
Thats a savings of 119 Runs right there. If you don't adjust their ERA's its still a savings of 90 Runs.
Who replaces Lidle? And why are you taking the low estimate on Ortiz when his work as a starter was far less encouraging?
Every year, during and after the season, folks identify the worst pitchers on the staff and insist the new guys who've come in will improve the mix. And every year they overestimate the quality of the new guys and underestimate the teeming reservoir of bad pitchers the Reds still have to draw upon to pitch innings for their team.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
I say I'll take the 13-14 wins he's averaged over the last full 4 seasons. So I'll take Eric Milton. And I wasn't inventing that, it's called a hypothetical. Hey his history shows he averages 13-14 wins, I'll take that if you want to go straight stats.
Lidle's starts will be taken over by Hudson. Its not like Lidle pitched well for the Reds - he gave up 88 earned runs in 150 innings (5.32ERA).Who replaces Lidle? And why are you taking the low estimate on Ortiz when his work as a starter was far less encouraging?
Every year, during and after the season, folks identify the worst pitchers on the staff and insist the new guys who've come in will improve the mix. And every year they overestimate the quality of the new guys and underestimate the teeming reservoir of bad pitchers the Reds still have to draw upon to pitch innings for their team.
I took the total season ERAs for Ortiz and all the pitches (including Acevedo who did much better as releiver than starter).
Just trying to show that Ortiz and Milton are pretty big upgrades over what we started last year. And the 157 run differential isn't unsurmountable. I did not even include Jimmy Haynes stellar 4 starts giving up 16 runs in 15 innings.
Do the Reds give him the 5.85 runs of support he got from the Phillies last year?
This isn't hard. Say Milton pitches like he pitches every season and the Reds score their average amount of runs for him. That's how you perform a realistic W-L projection, not by picking a number out of the air.
His history shows he was a pretty good pitcher from 1999-2001 and not so good from 2002-2004. I sincerely doubt you're fine with the 2002-2004 model. I know I'm not. Then again, I'm just a negative, horrible, unhappy person.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
And what if the Reds offense doesn't give him the luxury of the almost 6 runs per game support for his starts? My grandmother could win 14 games if you scored almost six runs every time she pitched. Take Ramon Ortiz, for example. In 2003, the Angels provided him with the 4th best run support in the AL.
You forget that the Reds dwell in the same division as Kerry Wood, Ben Sheets, Roy Oswalt, and Oliver Perez. In fact, they may be the very pitchers Milton will match up with. It's not beyond the stretch of reality that the Reds could face each of those pitchers 4 times next year. And they aren't going to be giving up the five or six runs in order to counter the four or five runs Milton will give up. If we get the average Eric Milton pitching against the average Kerry Wood, Ben Sheets, Roy Oswalt, and Oliver Perez three times each, Milton will be 0-12 in those games. And that doesn't count any of his starts against the Cardinals, who will feature Pujols and Rolen and Edmonds and Walker as HR threats.
You see 20 wins from Milton. I see a REAL possibility of him getting 15 losses just from within our own division if we get the average Eric Milton, and not some "hope for", "what if" version where Milton wins the Cy Young.
Last edited by MikeS21; 12-28-2004 at 04:26 PM.
“I think I throw the ball as hard as anyone. The ball just doesn't get there as fast.” — Eddie Bane
“We know we're better than this ... but we can't prove it.” — Tony Gwynn
M2, I'm not saying you are a horrible person, not at all. I'm saying that if Milton continues to win at the clip he has, I will be happy. You asked me if I'd be happy with Eric Milton, I told you I would be if he continues to win at that clip. capeche?
You are not, M2. Your name is M2, and gosh darn it, people like you.Then again, I'm just a negative, horrible, unhappy person.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
What I get is that you've got a tenuous grasp of how a pitcher collects wins. And I can't imagine where I'd get this notion that you were flaming the character of those who are looking at what Milton has done over the past three years and saying it's not worth the amount the Reds will pay him. Maybe that's just because I need to be more optimistic in my personal life.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
In 2004, Eric Milton led all of MLB in Wins recorded (4) while posting Non-Quality Starts (i.e. Cheap Wins). He was tied for ninth among all MLB Starting Pitchers in Run Support (6.54 Runs Per Game).
Just to give that it's proper perspective, if a team scored 6.54 Runs per game over a season, they'd have scored about 100 Runs MORE than the top scoring MLB team last season.
In 2003, Brett Tomko went 13-9. Not difficult to do, even with a 5.28 ERA, considering that he received 6.75 Runs per Game in support that year. Derek Lowe posted a 14-12 record with a 5.42 ERA last season. Why? His team scored an average of 7.29 Runs per Game when he pitched.
The fact is that, since 2001, I can't find a single MLB Starting Pitcher who put up a losing record while receiving 6.00 or more Runs per Game in support of his efforts- regardless of how mediocre those efforts were. There are some good pitchers on that list. And there are some pitchers who performed poorly on that list but reaped the benefits from their respective offenses. Milton is one of the latter.
Where you see Wins and attribute them to Pitcher skill, I see Losses that should have been.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
Wily Mo Pena has had (half of) one year of success. Ken Griffey Jr. has had 15 years of success. Yes, I know you said "right now." But let's let Wily Mo have at least a full good season before we start calling him a better overall option that a Hall of Famer.
"Strickland Propane... Taste the meat, not the heat." - Hank Hill
Does it occur to anyone that pitchers change their approach when being spotted a lot of runs?
If you're given solid cushions when you pitch, then your new goal is to throw strikes and get batters to put the ball in play. There's no need to go full on every batter when you're up 7-0 (a fact you wouldn't know by watching Aaron Harang pitch).
What is Milton's record in 1-run games? That, to me, is a better measure of a pitcher's moxy than speculating on how bad he is when he gives up 5 while already up by 11.
-JMKB
Translation: The objective data says he is a solid player, but every single bit of circumstantial evidence I have personally seen (watching Reds games, watching other players, looking at the value of his contract, looking at the obvious disinterest in retaining him the White Sox had) taken in the totality of the circumstance tells me that D'Angelo Jimenez is not the player he gets credit in the sabermetrics for being.
It's the reason I hate all these new baseball statistics, they scrape away the fun of the game, IMO.
-CE
1-2, and only one of those games qualifies as a Quality Start.What is Milton's record in 1-run games? That, to me, is a better measure of a pitcher's moxy than speculating on how bad he is when he gives up 5 while already up by 11.
Your other assertion never happened in 2004.
Milton picked up a cheap Win on June 29th when the Phillies put 17 Runs on the board against the Expos. The Phillies spotted Milton an 8-2 lead after the third Inning and Milton couldn't hold it. After throwing 102 Pitches through five IP and walking 4 while striking out one hitter and allowing 7 Runs to cross the plate, Milton was mercifully pulled. The Phillies then threw up a six spot in the bottom of the fifth and Milton picked up about the ugliest Win you can imagine due to his offense's performance after almost blowing a game that should have been neatly tucked away.
Yeah. Good "moxie".
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
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