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Thread: Who are the Reds' top prospects these days?

  1. #16
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    "Huge pool of talented arms and bats"?

    There are a few AA squads that have more talent than the Reds farm teams combined. You have to scratch to find two real position prospects at each level. There are some talented arms, but Chattanooga has become the ceiling for Reds pitching prospects where they either land on the surgery table or the plateauof development. To overcome this, the Reds continue to draft heavily pitching, leaving position prospects to come from the later rounds. The few higher position players they have drafted recently have been overdrafts.

    Money or lack of has led to some poor drafts. Right now it appears they have little to show from last year's top 10 draftees. Investing less in Gruler than Kazmir now seems very foolish with Gruler undergoing surgery and Kazmir doing well. Votto is looking like he was a large reach. Schramek is striking out an awful lot for a doubles hitter and Edens has been having trouble getting outs in Potomac. Olmstead, Keller ? where are they even?

    This year's approach to the draft is much more encouraging but let's see who they sign first and then more importantly see if any changes are made within the developmental staff/philosophy.

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  3. #17
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    I agree with you Bill.. I think our farm is pretty empty.. particularly for position players.

    The fact that Olmedo is probably our top prospect now says volumes about the depth of the system.

    Hopefully they can get the guys they drafted this year signed.. they desparately need a talent infusion.
    Even if the finances do not allow them to sign as many of the people as we'd like, at least Bowden and the scouts did a good job picking them. (Assuming at least a few do get signed )
    Thank you Walt and Bob for bringing winning baseball back to Cincy -- it was nice while it lasted..

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  4. #18
    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    None of these guys feel like "my guy" so to speak. I had a real interest in Kearns, Dunn, and Broussard over the last few years.

    Kearns & Dunn came through Dayton and were obvious talents.

    Broussard was a solution to bolster the pitching staff. (IMO save $5M a year by trading Casey, apply to pitching staff. The team loses production at 1B but more than makes up for it in pitching. Worst case scenario is Dunn at 1B and another OF playing every day).

    Nobody in Dayton last year (outside of EE) really tickled my fancy. I didn't really believe in anyone we had in AA/AAA either.

    Schramek passed through Dayton too quickly for me to get firmly on board. From what I have seen I think he has a chance to be a productive MLB player, but I don't have enough ABs to say it with absolute conviction.

    Right now the only guy I have my eyes on is Edwin Encarnacion, being an original member of his bandwagon. Problem is, I have no doubts he will succeed in time, so I have nobody to pine for.

    Pitching is such a crap-shoot that I don't follow them like I do the position players.

    I might have to check out Smitherman in more detail. He was a nice OFer in Dayton, but he didn't really exude the type of talent that Kearns/Dunn did at that level. I guess I have to temper my judgement of the players I see now, they don't have to be Kearns/Dunn level talents to be productive MLB players.


  5. #19
    Join Date
    May 2003
    smitherman is a good player, but he's not a top prospect. he's 25 and tearing up AA. austin kearns and adam dunn (although he's struggling) are establishing themselves as major leaguers as 23 yr olds. smitherman might be a good role player for the reds, but i dont think he's a part of the reds future, at least as a starter.

  6. #20
    Selfie Time! KittyDuran's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Hamilton, Ohio
    smitherman is a good player, but he's not a top prospect. he's 25 and tearing up AA. austin kearns and adam dunn (although he's struggling) are establishing themselves as major leaguers as 23 yr olds. smitherman might be a good role player for the reds, but i dont think he's a part of the reds future, at least as a starter.
    Neither Kearns or Dunn went to college - basically starting in the system as 18/19 year olds.
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  7. #21
    Dunnilicious creek14's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2000
    Originally posted by KittyDuran
    Neither Kearns or Dunn went to college - basically starting in the system as 18/19 year olds.
    Dunn put in a short time at Texas.
    Will trade this space for a #1 starter.

  8. #22
    Join Date
    May 2003
    The farm is weak, thanks to the trades last year,and injuries to almost ALL of the good arms in the system have gone down in the last 2 seasons. The big club also has needed alot of help from the young guys for a few seasons, and once the kids are up it kinda ruins the perception that they are prospects. I believe the farm will be back on track this time next season.:smokin:

  9. #23
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Bedford, KY
    Sure, the farm system is in a bit of a downturn, but it couldn't help but pale in comparison to the past two or three years. Players the caliber of Dunn and Kearns don't come along very often-- perhaps once in a generation.

    But to say that it is completely barren is overstating it a bit, IMO. I like a few of the prospects Cincinnati has in its system and my Top Ten is quite a bit different than the list from the esteemed poster from Bah-stan.

    1. Moseley
    Young, talented and successful in every level he's pitched in the Red minor league system. His frame suggests he may grab another two or three mph on his fastball as he matures. If so, he's the top prospect in the system.
    Ceiling of: NY Met Rick Reed
    Probably will be like: Cincinnati Red Rick Reed

    2. Basham
    Not a great year so far, but the arm questions seem behind him and he's been very good for a month and a half now. His BB:K ratio is still excellent, though not as awesome as last seasons. Still young and, assuming he can rediscover the rest of his fastball, he's a solid bet for a starting berth as early as June, 2004.
    Ceiling of: Wade Miller
    Probably will be like: a young Pedro Astacio

    3. Smitherman
    He's thrid in BA, second in HR, and third in RBI in AA. That's a phenomenal year and a clear indication that Smitherman is a man among boys in AA. If he can survive with a promotion to AAA, he can be a fourth OF/ part-time starter in 2004 and a nice cog to have off the Red bench. Not a superstar, but valuable nonetheless.
    Ceiling of: Chris Sabo
    Probably will be like: Chris Sabo

    4. Olmedo
    Always had great hands, but his bat has been questioned at all levels. If he can use his speed (and all indications are that he will), he's a top of the order slap hitter in the mold of Wilton Guerrero with a Gold Glove. Certainly a very god prospect and one many teams would envy.
    Ceiling of: Omar Visquel
    Probably will be like: Toronto Blue Jay Tony Fernandez

    5. Hall
    Has had the best year of the AA pitchers to date, though his ceiling is not quite as high as that of Moseley or Basham. Ninth in AA in ERA and has the best K/IP ratio of the starting quartet in Chattanooga. Perhaps a promotion to AAA will better gauge his possible effectiveness in the majors, but I question whether his curve will be as good against guys used to hitting good curves every day.
    Ceiling of: KC Tom Gordon
    Probably will be like: Joe Borowski

    6. Koronka
    Solid LH that looks to be a year or two away. Has done nothing to indicate he's overmatched in AA; in fact, has been a bit above average in the league. I'd like to see him domanate like Moseley and Basham have in the past before picking him higher, but should be a solid LH reliever even if he can't.
    Ceiling of: LH Kurt Rueter
    Probably will be like: Kent Merker

    7. Encarnacion
    He's still a baby and, though he's been sent down to High A, that's nothing to worry about, as his patience while at the plate has improved greatly and his defense has also improved. If he can get straightened out in Potomac, he can climb higher than all, as his ceiling is that of a perrenial All Star at 3B.
    Ceiling of: Scott Rolen
    Probably will be like: Aaron Boone

    8. Mark Schramek
    The promotion to AA is great and well-deserved, but he should have been there from the start of the season. Solid bat and a reputation of a great glove at the hot corner, he's displayed a doubles bat and a ton of plate patience and OBP.
    Ceiling of: Corey Koskie
    Probably will be like: Kevin Seitzer

    9. Bergolla
    Really like William Bergolla, the speedy 2B in Potomac. If he can continue to hit like he has in May and June, he's a fast riser and a great prospect in the mold of Luis Castillo. Phenomenal speed and could be an outstanding leadoff hitter for Cincinnati as early as 2005.
    Ceiling of: Luis Castillo
    Probably will be like: Tony Womack

    10. Frias
    The pitcher formerly known as Cleris Servino has put up great numbers at low A Dayton and I am very surprised he hasn't been promoted to Potomac by now. Considering his age, he should be pitching well and he is. Let's see what he can do in AA before we get excited, though, shall we?
    Ceiling of: NY Yankee Luis Tiant
    Probably will be like: Joe Sambito

    All in all, Cincinnati has some decent, underrated talent in the pipeline. All ten of these guys have a great shot at playing in the majors at some time over the next four years. While none of them will be in the superstar class of Dunn and Kearns, they should be solid, dependable players that can help a team compete year in and year out.

    Of the above, only Moseley, Bergolla, and Encarnacion have decent chances at All Star berths, though Basham (if he rediscovers his fastball) and possibly Smitherman have outside shots.
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  10. #24
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Before being promoted to the majors this year, was Olmedo ever even top 15?

  11. #25
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    FLOTG, I didn't list Larson for two reasons.

    One, I think he's passed the rookie qualification mark (<120 PAs).

    Two, I've seen enough of Brandon Larson to consider him a non-prospect. I hope he can get healthy and perhaps become a usable bench player for his own sake, but it would take multiple acts of God for me to consider starting him on a regular basis.
    Wait until the year after next year.

  12. #26
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Greenville, ohio
    The farm system is Marge Schott bad. Our best everyday player prospect is a 25 year old in AA. That's kind of scary.

    We've got 4-6 pitchers at AA who are considered prospects. Even so none of their numbers jump out at you save for Mottl. He has a good K/Inn ratio. If you have 4-6 pitching prospects, you may get 1-2 that make it to the major leagues. There's an outside chance that one becomes an avg. major league starter.
    We are in bad shape.

    As for everyday players. I like Smitherman-he's hit everywhere he's played and he's got a good eye at the plate. He could be an above average hitter. Does anyone know if he can field?

    Olmedo's approach at he plate is looks better than I imagined.

    Ed E. has gone way backwards -is he hurt?

    Schramek needs to have a good 2nd half. I do like the plate discipline and he doubles power. Will it turn into home run power?

    Our minor leagues has gotta be in the bottom 5. How could anyone rate it higher?

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