i thought our brainiac GM said he would not touch the farm pitching system? I guess that is over with. WS here we come. :MandJ:
Let me just say this was a classic move to let's try to get to .500 move. Nothing else to say except, zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
What he said.Originally Posted by MWM
My standard for Dan O'Brien is can he deliver something better than the worst pitching staff in team history. If not he should be fired and Reds fans should get to throw rocks at him as he exits the team offices.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
That sounds like fun.. can we get a few throws at Allen and Carl too? :MandJ:
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
I think that's most folks' standard on here. However, is the expectation steady improvement or to go from the worst staff in the league to one of the best overnight?
"Steady" can mean so many things. An investment that yields a .5% annual return is steady. But don't plan on getting rich by it.
Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David
Ok, to be more specific, after the last two years, to be in the top 8-10 overall in the league would be a reasonable improvement for 2005. That would probably put your staff near the league average, which to me would be steady improvement. That also would probably put the Reds on the smiling side of .500 (for those of you missing George Grande this winter).
My expectation? Well, that's opening a can of worms. In a sane world, a pitching staff that doesn't make me wince would be my expectation.
But I'm a Reds fan and it's been four seasons since the team I root for supplied me with one of those.
I think a fair expectation would be that the team have an ERA below 5.00. That would at least give you the impression they might be trending toward mediocre. It would be nice to be less than a complete embarrasment.
But that's not the standard I'm employing. All I'm saying is that DanO had better deliver something better than the worst pitching staff in Reds history. The ERA bar for that is set at 5.19. That's not really asking much, better than the worst pitching staff in team history. Of course it's a bunny hop O'Brien failed to make in 2004.
I could see it going either way right now. Though as much time as we've spent talking about the new arms that DanO's brought in, I maintain his go-to guy in this quest is still the head groundskeeper.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
tr, mark me down as someone who thinks the Reds will again be one of the worst three non-Colorado pithing staff in the majors this year. And you can hold me to that. Going into the season, I don't see any real improvement.
Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David
tr, I think that's a fair question. But the answer is a lot more complicated and really hinges on where the team is right now.
If the Reds were in such a position that they could turn into a winning ballclub by creeping up the performance ladder in an area, then ok. Let's marginally improve where needed.
But considering where the Reds actually have been, marginal improvment in any area doesn't get them anywhere close to where they need to be. Continuing the path of marginal improvement simply means that by the time one area (ie. the rotation) finally gets good enough to be helpful, another area has priced itself out of town (ie. Dunn, Kearns, whoever).
From the Reds' position, losing anything to promote slight, gradual upward performance creep means that the ambulance may end up arriving...but not until after the patient is beyond saving.
Basically, the acquisition of Ramon Ortiz replaces Cory Lidle's slot in the rotation without improving that slot by an appreciable margain, if at all. And the Reds spent more resources than they did to acquire Lidle in terms of both capital and talent cost. By doing that, we're assured that we won't see the kind of talent influx that would actually accelerate a performance gain to the point of it being meaningful.
Simply put, for the Reds that strategy is pointless because three to four years from now is far far too late given the current club makeup and current performance level.
I feel like I'm attending a course called "Wheel Spinning 101" with Professor Dan O'Brien at the chalkboard.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
What a coincincedence:
One of my customers: "So who's gonna be the number one starter now?"
Me: "The Head Groundskeeper..."
Customer: "Not good"
Me: "Not good."
"Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?" ~ Jim Bouton
After digesting this trade for a while, here's by take:
1) DMos was the most notable among the many cookie cutter pitching prospects JimBo and his henchmen brought into the farm system. By cookie cutter, I mean a right-hander who had a decent breaking ball, but had a very average fastball. Gillman, Reith, Basham, Hall, Belisle - and some folks would argue Gruler - all fit into that same mold. While Moseley was high on the Reds' list, most would have to agree that in the larger scheme of things, he wasn't anyone to get overly excited about. As others have said, trading away Moseley doesn't contradict DanO's plan for building through the farm system. With guys like Gardner and Pauly around, we can survive without DMos.
2) There were no guarantees the Angels were going to non-tender Ortiz. Had they non-tendered him, he would have become a FA and the Reds would have lost out in the inevitable bidding war.
3) There were also no guarantees that had the Reds saved their money and pursued Clement or Perez that they would have landed either pitcher. Had this been the case, most would have complained about DanO not doing anything.
4) Ortiz is nothing special. I'm about as excited over Ortiz as I was over the signing of Haynes, Anderson, and Lidle. But I had that same knot in the stomach when they signed Paul Wilson, too. I don't think he is the answer, nor do I think he is a disaster.
I think the thing that bugs me the most is that Ortiz is the kind of guy the Braves, the Cardinals, the Yankees, or the Mariners would sign to be back of the rotation (#4 or #5) filler. OTOH, the Reds are thinking of him as a #2 starter. Which makes sense for a team who thinks Paul Wilson is a #1 starter.
5) Finally, this episode also is a painful reminder of the sorry state of talent within this organization. The thing is that for whatever reason - there are probably only about four players in the entire organization - ie. Dunn, Kearns, Pena, and EddyE - who could be flipped for talent that might actually help this team. But the flip side is that if you traded any of the four, you are seriously weakening what would otherwise be a future strength. Even if you traded, say Kearns for a decent pitcher, that would only translate into losing games by a score of 3-1 instead of 7-4.
Many hound DanO because of his lack of aquisitions at the ML level. I don't fault him there because he already told us that was going to happen. But the one area I have been extremely disappointed with OB in is his inability to produce a viable minor league prospect. I've seen reorganization, I've seen new scouts and advisors, I've seen demotions and promotions among minor league instructors, I've heard Tim Neahring talk up prospects like a used car salesman, and I've even heard the word "plan" thrown around. But there's one thing that missing that I haven't seen. And that's progress. I'm having a real hard time seeing any difference between where the farm system is now than where it was a year ago when DanO took over.
In the 2004 edition of the BA Prospect Handbook, the Reds were ranked #26 out of thirty teams as far as minor league talent. I have to tell you that I am dreading to see the 2005 rankings because I am 99% sure the Reds will DROP to an even lower position. I was extremely disappointed in the June 2004 draft. Granted, Homer Bailey could turn into a stud. But, given the track record of most high school pitching prospects, there's a better chance he'll wind up a dud.
Most of you who have been around here for awhile know that I tend to be one who calls for a little slack to be cut for the GM. But this GM promised to build through the farm system, and I haven't see any signs of it yet. Perhaps a year is too soon to expect visable results. I'm not asking for a miracle, only for an upgrade. But if the 2005 draft is as disappointing as the 2004 draft, I'm afraid my patience with Mr. O'Brien will officially run out.
“I think I throw the ball as hard as anyone. The ball just doesn't get there as fast.” — Eddie Bane
“We know we're better than this ... but we can't prove it.” — Tony Gwynn
tr, to end up in the top 8-10 in the NL in team ERA, the Runs would have to allow about 162 fewer Earned Runs than they allowed last season.
Uh-uh. Not with this staff.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
I'm willing to bet anyone who will take it that Corey Lidle outperforms Ramon Ortiz in 2005. Any taker?
Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David
MikeS21,
Can't argue with any of that. The 2004 draft will be judged on the success of one player, Homer Bailey. At least he is different from most other Reds in that he has a plus, plus fastball. Cincinnati needs him to arrive by 2007.
That's like saying you need to hit the Power Ball jackpot in order to pay your bills.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
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