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Thread: M2/Guernsey Bet On the 2005 Reds Team ERA

  1. #31
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    Re: Additional Info from Jayson Stark - Milton/Ortiz

    Actually, it's pretty simple.

    60 starts from Milton & Ortiz in '05 will be better than the 60 starts the Reds got from Van Poppel, Lidle & Acevedo in '04.

    As for the Ortiz or Hudson debate, if they're the same pitcher, why not have them both? If Hudson and Harrang are the two front runners for the rotation, then that keeps lesser lights from getting starts that will go to Ortiz.
    "People that frequent Internet forums resemble the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest!" - C. J. Cregg, The West Wing

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  3. #32
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Additional Info from Jayson Stark - Milton/Ortiz

    Quote Originally Posted by guernsey
    Actually, it's pretty simple.

    60 starts from Milton & Ortiz in '05 will be better than the 60 starts the Reds got from Van Poppel, Lidle & Acevedo in '04.
    Milton, maybe, though not wildly so. Ortiz no. He's every bit as bad as those guys.

    What ought to be simple to figure out is the Reds still have a lousy pitching staff.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  4. #33
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    Re: Additional Info from Jayson Stark - Milton/Ortiz

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Milton, maybe, though not wildly so. Ortiz no. He's every bit as bad as those guys.
    Money time.

    '05 Milton will outpitch '04 Lidle.

    '05 Ortiz will outpitch '04 Starting Van Poppel and '04 Starting Acevedo.

    Wanna bet?
    "People that frequent Internet forums resemble the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest!" - C. J. Cregg, The West Wing

  5. #34
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    Re: Additional Info from Jayson Stark - Milton/Ortiz

    I don't know if he was hurt. I"m just hoping I guess! It's not like Ortiz was the only deal. If it were I'd be pissed, but we got a 3B, 3 BP, Left starter, and now a SS. If you don't think this team is better then last years which was in it until Griffey went down then I can't say anything right.
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

  6. #35
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Additional Info from Jayson Stark - Milton/Ortiz

    Quote Originally Posted by guernsey
    Money time.

    '05 Milton will outpitch '04 Lidle.

    '05 Ortiz will outpitch '04 Starting Van Poppel and '04 Starting Acevedo.

    Wanna bet?
    This is when you need to buy a clue.

    I agree Milton will outpitch the '04 Lidle (note where I said he's the one with upside). However I don't get all jazzed up about the difference between 4.75 and 5.32.

    And the point with Ortiz is who cares whether his 5.00+ ERA is better than Von Poppel or Acevedo's from last season. He still sucks.

    Supposedly, and I only know this because I've seen teams other than the Reds do it in recent years, the idea is to have a staff that pitches well. The Reds don't have one that can do it. Wanna bet on that?
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  7. #36
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    Re: Additional Info from Jayson Stark - Milton/Ortiz

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    This is when you need to buy a clue.

    I agree Milton will outpitch the '04 Lidle (note where I said he's the one with upside). However I don't get all jazzed up about the difference between 4.75 and 5.32.

    And the point with Ortiz is who cares whether his 5.00+ ERA is better than Von Poppel or Acevedo's from last season. He still sucks.

    Supposedly, and I only know this because I've seen teams other than the Reds do it in recent years, the idea is to have a staff that pitches well. The Reds don't have one that can do it. Wanna bet on that?
    Well, I figured you'd be too chicken to take the bet. You won't debate that the Reds have improved their staff, because they have. And the Reds aren't to be given credit for anything.

    As for a staff that pitches "well", you care to put a definition with that? By leaving it ambiguous, you leave yourself plenty of opportunity to say, "I'm right! I'm right" when the Reds staff isn't one of the three best in the league.

    Do I think Milton/Ortiz/Wilson will match up with Clemens/Oswaldt/Pettite and Prior/Wood/Maddux? No, but then the Cubs watched the postseason on TV last season just as the Reds did.

    It's amazing that someone who has never managed anything more complex that a lemonade stand can manage a baseball franchise. Being in Boston, I suggest you go get an interview with Bill James and put that talent to work somewhere other than a meaningless Internet forum.
    "People that frequent Internet forums resemble the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest!" - C. J. Cregg, The West Wing

  8. #37
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    Re: Additional Info from Jayson Stark - Milton/Ortiz

    Quote Originally Posted by guernsey
    Well, I figured you'd be too chicken to take the bet. You won't debate that the Reds have improved their staff, because they have. And the Reds aren't to be given credit for anything.

    As for a staff that pitches "well", you care to put a definition with that? By leaving it ambiguous, you leave yourself plenty of opportunity to say, "I'm right! I'm right" when the Reds staff isn't one of the three best in the league.

    Do I think Milton/Ortiz/Wilson will match up with Clemens/Oswaldt/Pettite and Prior/Wood/Maddux? No, but then the Cubs watched the postseason on TV last season just as the Reds did.

    It's amazing that someone who has never managed anything more complex that a lemonade stand can manage a baseball franchise. Being in Boston, I suggest you go get an interview with Bill James and put that talent to work somewhere other than a meaningless Internet forum.
    Do you read? Because in this very thread I said the Reds have marginally improved the pitching staff ... from hideous to butt ugly.

    You want a number to shoot for? How about a 4.23 ERA? That's been the NL average the past three seasons. I was actually going to let you have first crack at defining it, but that probably would have turned into a discussion over gradients of lousy.

    As for the other stuff. Never been in the lemonade business and I like being a baseball fan. Might I suggest that if you hold such a low opinion of this "meaningless Internet forum" then maybe you ought not to spend so much time here. I don't share your opinion on that matter.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  9. #38
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    Re: Additional Info from Jayson Stark - Milton/Ortiz

    Time to just go sit back relax and stop reading this post or the Redzone. I know it can be frustrating when fans just seem to share joy in their team, but it's not worth it for either party to be stressed over this or that. Like I said earlier. Let's just wait and see and the we can banter back with I told you so if that gets you going!
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

  10. #39
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    Re: Additional Info from Jayson Stark - Milton/Ortiz

    Quote Originally Posted by guernsey
    Money time.

    '05 Milton will outpitch '04 Lidle.

    '05 Ortiz will outpitch '04 Starting Van Poppel and '04 Starting Acevedo.

    Wanna bet?
    I'll take half that bet. In fact I'll bet that Ortiz is actually worse than Acevedo alone.

    As for the Ortiz or Hudson debate, if they're the same pitcher, why not have them both? If Hudson and Harrang are the two front runners for the rotation, then that keeps lesser lights from getting starts that will go to Ortiz.
    2 of crap is crap. if the reds really wanted to shoot themselves in the foot, they'd have signed Lima too.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  11. #40
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    Re: Additional Info from Jayson Stark - Milton/Ortiz

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF
    I'll take half that bet. In fact I'll bet that Ortiz is actually worse than Acevedo alone.



    2 of crap is crap. if the reds really wanted to shoot themselves in the foot, they'd have signed Lima too.

    I'm willing to bet that Acevedo puts up better numbers than Ortiz as well, but I also believe that Ortiz is in the bullpen by mid-season.

  12. #41
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    Re: Additional Info from Jayson Stark - Milton/Ortiz

    Quote Originally Posted by guernsey
    60 starts from Milton & Ortiz in '05 will be better than the 60 starts the Reds got from Van Poppel, Lidle & Acevedo in '04.
    The latter group made ~$4M last year. The former will get paid ~$13M this year.

    They damn well oughta pitch better.

  13. #42
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    Re: Additional Info from Jayson Stark - Milton/Ortiz

    Acevedo may not even be a Red after spring training. Ortiz's career success level is higher than Acevedo, you have to at least give him that. He is Gullet's project with a upside to pull a Harnish though I figure he will blow out at some point. Milton, is a sneeky good pick up that got overpaid in this market. Oh the surprise.

    DanO's moves aren't for the "know-it-all" fan to say the least. My view they are a more "richer" version of Bowdenism after the 1998 season. Though the Reds farm system, I suspect will have better players to offer 2004 and beyond than what Jimmy had for himself after during and after the 99 season. Though interestly enough, Bowden is the one who stocked alot of these players.

    Will it work? Why people get hyped over Wilson,Milton and Ortiz, the key is the developement of Hudson,Claussen and the Minor League righties like Gardner,Nelson and Pauly. Even if the Top 3 Veterens all succeed past our expectations, you will need some talent to complete the pie from another pitcher. Hudson and Claussen IMO have that talent to do that in 2004 and the others in 2005(except maybe for Nelson if he was injured last year). My guess is one Vet succeeds, the other is down the middle and the last bombs out. DanO's gotta hope for better.

    DanO's future as Reds GM may ride on this season. The stakes are high. If the Reds don't compete for the playoffs after Augest 1st and are mediocre, the fallout could be bad. Fans will be depressed, which will decrease the money supply and the Reds will have to deal off more players than they might have had if they had succeeded in 2004. It could start a domino effect dooming DanO and setting up Allen who didn't support O'brien's hiring and has been very quiet recently concerning the Reds, unilateral power in selecting the next GM. The O'brien/Lindner regime is at its peek, they are running the operations and the Limiteds are sitting back taking notes. If they fail, Lindner will sell the managing shares to another Limited partner, who, if my hunch is right concerning this partner, will give John Allen absolute power.

  14. #43
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    Re: Additional Info from Jayson Stark - Milton/Ortiz

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    You want a number to shoot for? How about a 4.23 ERA? That's been the NL average the past three seasons.

    Might I suggest that if you hold such a low opinion of this "meaningless Internet forum" then maybe you ought not to spend so much time here.
    That's a fair target, and one the Reds have a chance for, allowing for park effect factors.

    As for your second suggestion, in case you haven't noticed; I don't.
    "People that frequent Internet forums resemble the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest!" - C. J. Cregg, The West Wing

  15. #44
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    Re: Additional Info from Jayson Stark - Milton/Ortiz

    Name any price.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  16. #45
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    Re: Additional Info from Jayson Stark - Milton/Ortiz

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