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Thread: Grade the offseason.

  1. #196
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    BP, what you're not realizing is this:

    If the Cubs and Astros lose 100 Runs to their RD, they'd still project to finish over .500. If the Reds add 100 Runs to their RD, they'd still project to finish under .500 (and would be 50+ Runs short of doing so).

    But really, I think the difference in our thought process on this is that I don't give the Reds bonus points for projecting a sub-.500 record regardless of what other teams did or didn't do to their own squads.

    BTW, per 200 IP the difference between Eric Milton and Cory Lidle is about 10 Runs. That's the kind of improvement you're looking at when swapping a below-average pitcher for another below-average pitcher. And when you're talking about that kind of incremental improvment, it's easy to eat it away if just one pitcher underperforms slightly versus 2004.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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  3. #197
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Then there's this from the DFW Star-Telegram:

    Cincinnati Reds GM Dan O'Brien, a long-time Rangers assistant, was one executive who managed to have a fairly productive winter without going overboard. He signed free-agent left-handed pitcher Eric Milton and traded for right-hander Ramon Ortiz, among other moves.

    "In the larger markets, there seems to be a lot more attention paid to ... making a splash," O'Brien said. "But for the rest of us, those in the smaller markets, our first priority is to improve our teams. If there is some corresponding media attention, so much the better, but that's not your focus."
    "People that frequent Internet forums resemble the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest!" - C. J. Cregg, The West Wing

  4. #198
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili
    And by "D," I think they might have been better off doing nothing. I think they're record will be very similar to last year, and they'll be stuck with bad LTCs making the signing of Dunn very difficult.
    Unless the signing of Dunn wouldn't matter. Maybe DanO is forbidden to give Dunn a LTC. I think it's highly possible that Allen now has a policy of going year-to-year until he's forced otherwise. And it may not be that bad of a policy in some cases. The time to lock up young players and save money is before they establish themselves. I'm not sure there's been a LTC that saves significant money after the player busts out. Of course, there's always the risk that Dunn goes into 70 Hr territory next year. But the Reds do control Dunn for 3 more years (I think). By then, Milton's contract is off the books.

    Wilson, Milton, and Ortiz might all flop, but I think signing them is a lot better than doing nothing. Their replacements would likely be: Claussen, Hancock, and Acevado/Robertson. That's certainly a downgrade.

    If the only justification of giving them a "D" is that it MIGHT hurt our chances of signing Dunn/Kearns longterm, I'm not that worried. I can buy the arguement that maybe the money could've been spent on better FAs (hypothetically, but I'm not sure that in reality we had a chance to get Clement/Perez at any price).

    Edit: I do agree with you on one thing. The Reds had a lot of "luck" last year, so it's possible their W-L may not improve. However, I think their W-L will be better than if they had done nothing this winter. Thanks.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  5. #199
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Biiter Pill you have some good points but if Houston loses a all-star CF you need to note that Chicago picks up a full season of a All-Star SS.

    But I agree w/ Steel here in that the Reds have a LONG way to go to catch up to Chicago and Houston and are no where even close to St. Louis.


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