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Thread: Grade the offseason.

  1. #121
    Administrator Boss-Hog's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfan30
    It'd be interesting to see some of those threads from back then. There were alot a career years that year leading to those big win totals. So I'm not sure I can understand how people would be more excited about 1999 than 2005 based on career numbers.
    I agree that there were plenty of career years from the 1999 team and I don't think anyone could have seen them winning 96 games - and actually missing the playoffs with that win total. However, my point is that there were quite a few who predicted good things for that team.

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  3. #122
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by guernsey
    OTOH, if the '05 Reds are playing meaningful games in Sept., will you admit that the FO did something well, or just chalk it up to dumb luck?
    Of course I will and I'll be happy to do so because the Reds will be a good team, if that's the case. Have you ever not known me to be a stand up guy? Rest assured, this thread will be archived.

  4. #123
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    I'll go on record right this second and say that if the Reds win close to 90 wins this season, I'll gladly admit I was wrong. If the Reds are out of the race by August, will all the "eternal optimists" admit they were wrong about the offseason?
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  5. #124
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Danny Jackson put up ERA+ numbers of 121, 133, 114 the three seasons before he joined the Reds. He was a well above average pitcher when he got to Cinci and was about to bust into the beginning of his age-prime years. If Ortiz compared favorably with Jackson as a starter, I'd be saying the same thing. But he doesn't.

    Nor does Milton's recent performance match up with either Neagle or Smiley at that time.

    The only comparison is that they're all pitchers the Reds didn't have the year before. But Neagle, Smiley, and Jackson were all far better acquisitions who actually projected to significantly impact performance to the positive.
    I guess I don't see the big difference between Jackson and Ortiz before they each came to the Reds. Thye both have VERY good points and really bad ones. The year before the Reds got Jackson he WALKED 109 batters.....and he LOST 18 games.

    Although Ortiz's ERA was generally not as good as Jackson, he was never the walk machine Jackson was.

    As to Milton and Smiley and Neagle.....I was simply pointing out that all 3 were considered established ML pitchers who were at some what of a cross roads in their careers. Milton might well find that switching leagues will elevate his game....it might do the opposite.....but change right now seems like a good idea for him. Even though you guys have (maybe righfully so) doubted the intelligence of pay what they did, you cannot deny that he is far and away the BEST pitcher they have acquired or developed in a VERY long time....with Neagle in 1998 being the only other close copy.
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  6. #125
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM
    I'll go on record right this second and say that if the Reds win close to 90 wins this season, I'll gladly admit I was wrong. If the Reds are out of the race by August, will all the "eternal optimists" admit they were wrong about the offseason?
    Absolutely. I'm not an eternal optimist though.....I was pretty down on them last season

    It won't take much to get back to form :mhcky21:

  7. #126
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM
    I'll go on record right this second and say that if the Reds win close to 90 wins this season, I'll gladly admit I was wrong. If the Reds are out of the race by August, will all the "eternal optimists" admit they were wrong about the offseason?
    To answer your question, yes I will admit I was wrong if they are out of the race by August.

    But my question to you is this: If Milton wins 16 games and posts and ERA of 4.40, strikesout close to 200 and improves on his homerun numbers...

    If Ortiz does similar things to Milton....

    If Randa hits .300 with 14 homers and 75 RBI and has another solid fielding percentage....

    If Weathers, Mercker and Weber help solidify the bullpen....

    and the Reds are still out of the race by August say due to injuries. Do you still consider this offseason a failure?
    "Strickland Propane... Taste the meat, not the heat." - Hank Hill

  8. #127
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfan30
    and the Reds are still out of the race by August say due to injuries. Do you still consider this offseason a failure?
    probably not. but even with injuries, i think if the acquisitions do all that, i don't think there's anyway the Reds are out of it in August.
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  9. #128
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    I'll say this.....unless the Reds experience an injuries disaster, they will have 4 pitchers win in double figures.
    "Is there a problem officers?"

  10. #129
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by red-in-la
    I'll say this.....unless the Reds experience an injuries disaster, they will have 4 pitchers win in double figures.
    And if they have 4 pitchers with 10+ wins, they will not be the horrible team everyone is making them out to be.
    "Strickland Propane... Taste the meat, not the heat." - Hank Hill

  11. #130
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by red-in-la
    I'll say this.....unless the Reds experience an injuries disaster, they will have 4 pitchers win in double figures.
    even the Cubs with their staff last year only had two pitchers with double digit wins. same with the Astros.
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  12. #131
    Member red-in-la's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    I agree 30.....and I guess if I studied the numbers hard enough, I could see all kinds of problems coming in 2005.....all I know is that this spring feels better than any since circa 2000 (before they traded for JR which I thought was distater back then) and circa 1994.....and O guess I still fail to see how anyone can feel differently.
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  13. #132
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfan30
    But my question to you is this: If Milton wins 16 games and posts and ERA of 4.40, strikesout close to 200 and improves on his homerun numbers...
    I'm not sure that's really all that gret a season. A 4.40 ERA is likely to be below the league average. If he finishes the season better than the league average, then I'll admit I'm wrong.

    If Ortiz does similar things to Milton....
    Ditto for Ortiz. Although, if Ortiz pitches 200 innings at an ERA below 5.00 I'd consider that a successful season for him.

    But with both Ortiz and Milton, I'd gladly wager anything reasonable that says they won't do that. I hope like hell they do, but the odds say they won't.

    If Randa hits .300 with 14 homers and 75 RBI and has another solid fielding percentage....
    First of all, not to get into another stat argument, but replace BA with OPS and I'll make the same "league average" assertion for him. If he's above the league average and plays good defense, I'll consider it a good signing.

    For the record, I'm pretty indifferent about the Randa signing. I'm not thrilled about it, but I the money involved and the years involved make it pretty harmless. My only fear with Randa is that he'll be having a good "traditional" season with a decent batting average and the city will start screaming for the Reds to re-sign him and the FO will listen.

    If Weathers, Mercker and Weber help solidify the bullpen....
    Lots of "ifs" in your post. I don't think the bullpen will be a difference maker this season for the Reds. The starters are bad enough that a good bully won't matter.

    and the Reds are still out of the race by August say due to injuries. Do you still consider this offseason a failure?
    See, that's a built in excuse right now. I can see it already, the Reds are out of the race early and the offseason moves and it will all be because of injuries.

    I don't think it's all that relevant. For me it will come down to the pitching staff. If Eric Milton pitches like Eric Milton has pitched the last three years, and Ramon Ortiz pitches the way he has over the last two years, will you consider the offseason a failure?.....regardless of injuries to other players. If the players DanO acquired don't perform better than they have over the last couple of years, I think it's safe to say that the offseason was a failure.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  14. #133
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by red-in-la
    I'll say this.....unless the Reds experience an injuries disaster, they will have 4 pitchers win in double figures.
    Refresh my memory here ril, what did you say about the 2003 staff going into that season?
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  15. #134
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by red-in-la
    I'll say this.....unless the Reds experience an injuries disaster, they will have 4 pitchers win in double figures.
    The 2000 Reds had 4 guys with at least 10 wins, they won 85 games, other Reds teams with 4 guys with 10 wins.. 1992 (90 wins) 1990 (91 wins) omly 3 on 1999.

    Therfore I agree if the Reds have 4 starters with at least 10 wins the chances are pretty good that they are having a good year.

  16. #135
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Actually the more I think about 4 pitchers with 10+ wins, the less far fetched it may be. Think of the run support this staff figures to get this year then think about this....

    Milton's career totalls seem to indicate that he is going to win 10 or more.

    Ortiz has won 16 and 15 games in his career.

    Harang pitched well last season and won 10 games so he has a chance.

    If Hudson pitches like we all think he can he is a definete threat to win 10 or more.

    Wilson was our best starter last season and got over the 10 win mark.

    That's five pitchers right there who you could make a legitimate case for them winning 10+ games this year. You know that not all five of them are going to do it, but maybe three or four is not totally out of the question.
    "Strickland Propane... Taste the meat, not the heat." - Hank Hill


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