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Thread: Grade the offseason.

  1. #151
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD
    Well, DanO skipped the Rule V draft, but that's ok, as he's added a bunch of players, so it doesn't make sense to rule V. He didn't do any dumb trades. He didn't take Dunn to arb. He reinforced the pen. He got Milton and Ortiz to reinforce the rotation. Not exactly dream material, but a big upgrade (IMO), and he fixed 3b with a cheap stopgap. Thus, I give him a "B"



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  3. #152
    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfan30
    Yes there are alot of "ifs" in my post, but there that is what the offseason is all about. Nobody knows for sure what is going to happen. The offseason is one big giant "if."
    I don't see why its difficult to accept that someone can (and would want to) assign probabilities to your IFs. We have mounds of data to determine what is likely to happen. No one knows for sure, but the data gives you a pretty good idea of what is likely to happen.

    If the sun comes up tomorrow, I'll go to work.

    If the world gets thumped by metors tonight, I'll stay home.

    There are two IFs here, one is more likely than the other, no?

    I don't know if the Reds will end up 62-100 or 100-62 or somewhere in between ... but I'd say its pretty likely they win less than 90 games this season, which more than likely leaves them out of the playoffs.

    Where could my prediction go wrong? Griffey and Kearns could stay healthy all year and produce. Significant help could come from the minor leagues. One or two of the starters could have a much better year than expected. Dunn could hit .325 with 65 HRs and 150 RBI. The rest of the teams in the division could have major injuries to key players. The Reds might be close enough, late enough, to warrent a trade for a legit starting pitchers. If a few of these happen this year the Reds could be a contender, and I'll happily watch, attend, listen to most all the games, same as I would if they lose 100 games. I'll happily be wrong in my prediction. I'll flat out rejoice!

    Does anybody have vegas over/unders for Reds Ws this year? Do they offer that type of action same as the NFL? Might have to put some money where my mouth is this year.

    GL

  4. #153
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by gonelong
    I don't see why its difficult to accept that someone can (and would want to) assign probabilities to your IFs. We have mounds of data to determine what is likely to happen. No one knows for sure, but the data gives you a pretty good idea of what is likely to happen.

    If the sun comes up tomorrow, I'll go to work.

    If the world gets thumped by metors tonight, I'll stay home.

    There are two IFs here, one is more likely than the other, no?

    I don't know if the Reds will end up 62-100 or 100-62 or somewhere in between ... but I'd say its pretty likely they win less than 90 games this season, which more than likely leaves them out of the playoffs.

    Where could my prediction go wrong? Griffey and Kearns could stay healthy all year and produce. Significant help could come from the minor leagues. One or two of the starters could have a much better year than expected. Dunn could hit .325 with 65 HRs and 150 RBI. The rest of the teams in the division could have major injuries to key players. The Reds might be close enough, late enough, to warrent a trade for a legit starting pitchers. If a few of these happen this year the Reds could be a contender, and I'll happily watch, attend, listen to most all the games, same as I would if they lose 100 games. I'll happily be wrong in my prediction. I'll flat out rejoice!

    Does anybody have vegas over/unders for Reds Ws this year? Do they offer that type of action same as the NFL? Might have to put some money where my mouth is this year.

    GL
    I've been trying to say exactly that over the last few weeks.

    Nicely done.
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

  5. #154
    You know his story Redsland's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis
    considering that in the past they would let him take a walk for nothing, then I think the fact that they re-upped Wilson for two years IS a big deal. Hopefully it signals a turning point in the way, financially, this franchise is run.

    I think a lot of people are grading this team as if they had the financial backing/spending history of the Yankees. As far as REDS offseasons go, this is one of the better ones.
    Giving millions to a below-average pitcher rather than letting him leave and giving the money to better personnel = one of the Reds better off-seasons?

    Makes all the routine posts.

  6. #155
    You know his story Redsland's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    I can tell you this and I can tell you this with all certainty- if Dan O'Brien had a real quality 2004 draft followed by a real quality 2004 offseason there'd be nothing but sunshine and flowers from the folks who are being grumped at right now.
    As archiver of the Dan-isms, I can confirm that this is 100% correct. Underline. Exclamation point.
    Makes all the routine posts.

  7. #156
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Most of the comments have already been covered, from both extremes, but I will offer my grade:

    B+

  8. #157
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    I think I'll have to change mine to a D+ - just kidding. Maybe to an A- now.
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

  9. #158
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Red Improvements:

    Replaced the septet of Freel, Castro, Larson, Lopez, and Hummel with Randa.
    Rough average of 2004 chaff OPS while playing 3B: .665
    Career OPS of Joe Randa: .765
    Probable Improvement: 100 OPS points

    Replaced Jose Acevedo (5.94 ERA) with Ramon Ortiz (4.43 ERA).
    Replaced Cory Lidle (5.32 ERA) with Eric Milton (4.75 ERA).
    Net Gain: 1.04 R/Game

    Replaced John Rielding (5.10 relief ERA in 77.7 IP) with David Weathers (4.15 ERA).
    Replaced Phil Norton (ERA of 5.07 in 65.7 IP) with Kent Mercker (2.55 ERA).
    Replaced Todd Van Poppel (6.09 ERA in 115.7 IP) with Ben Weber (8.06 ERA).
    Net Gain: .50 R/Game

    Fairly self evident the Reds improved themselves. Greatly.

    That said, I would have liked to see at least one LTC given to Kearns or Dunn. I understand the importance of having the player agree to the contract and assume Dunn is rightfully aware of his value in today's market-- i.e., he's among a handful of players that are possibly worth $10-15 million per year. Assuming his agent has clued him into these numbers, I also can't fault DanO for failing to find common ground on a LTC with Dunn. (This logic seems to be lost on some posters, as they assume the Reds could sign Dunn if only they shell out enough cash. This is obviously a specious argument and cannot be proven valid by either side. Suffice it to say, I am fairly content DanO has tried and seems to know full well the value of Dunn in Cincinnati.)

    Overall grade: B-
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  10. #159
    All dyslexics must untie!
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD
    Well, DanO skipped the Rule V draft, but that's ok, as he's added a bunch of players, so it doesn't make sense to rule V. He didn't do any dumb trades. He didn't take Dunn to arb. He reinforced the pen. He got Milton and Ortiz to reinforce the rotation. Not exactly dream material, but a big upgrade (IMO), and he fixed 3b with a cheap stopgap. Thus, I give him a "B"

    He didn't do everything I put on his homework, but he did a fine job. Sure, I'd rather have a SP better than Milton/Ortiz.. but think about how bad the alternative was. I honestly don't see how DanO gets below a "C-" this winter. Don't underestimate how difficult it was to get Milton. And for that matter, getting Ortiz for a marginal prospect was a good move.

    DanO had no trade bait, but was able to add 3 starting pitchers and 3 relievers. That's commendable, IMO.
    Mark it down, this is one of the few times that REDREAD and I have ever agreed on anything :

    (Grade: solid B)

    Now if I can just get RR to admit that John Allen really isn't that bad of a guy... :mhcky21:

    Raise your hand if you think the Spiridellis brothers should focus their next Jibjab on the polar-opposition that is...M2 and guernsey
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  11. #160
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Replaced Jose Acevedo (5.94 ERA) with Ramon Ortiz (4.43 ERA).
    Replaced Cory Lidle (5.32 ERA) with Eric Milton (4.75 ERA).
    Or, replaced Cory Lidle (4.90 full season ERA) with Eric Milton (4.75 full season ERA)
    Or, replaced Jose Acevedo (6.64 ERA as a Starter) with Ramon Ortiz (5.47 ERA as as Starter)

    BTW, Reidling won't put up his 5.00+ ERA again. And Weathers stands little chance of putting up a 4.15 ERA again. That's a push, but Dan O' doesn't know it. Lidle/Milton is pretty much a push as well (the Phillies think so too). If Weber's healthy, he'll top Van Poppel to be sure and Mercker will also deal better than Norton, tis true.

    But when you swap SP's in the range of 5.50 and 6.50 that's just the difference between losing ugly and losing uglier-er. And when you give up the number of Runs the Reds' starters project to give up...well, let's just say that they make the pen less of a factor than they should be even if that pen is improved. Tough to make a difference when constantly pitching from behind no matter how good you are.

    There's no obvious "great" improvement there other than a LHP who'll top out at 65 IP.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
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  12. #161
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    What Steel just said.

    Just to add to that, one of the things we bump into every offseason is the insistence that no terribly bad pitchers will emerge in the coming season. Yet they always do. The 2005 Reds would do well if they only need 300 IP (roughly 33 games worth of pitching) from replacement-level pitchers. They don't have a staff full of reliable innings eaters and this isn't a workhorse bullpen.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  13. #162
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by iammrred


    Well, I like to at least think I am fair when this front office actually does something to improve the team. I haven't slammed Carl this winter either (or at least not after the acquisions)

    Ultimately, I think this team should be a 70-75 million payroll team, so hopefully we're headed that way.

    If DanO's moves don't work out, hopefully he'll replaced with someone better quickly, but for now, I'm happy that I'm not going to have to sit through a last place season. I doubt this team contends, but they will be good entertainment his season. I doubt any of our vet pitchers win the Cy, but they are at least legit major league pitchers.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  14. #163
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Or, replaced Cory Lidle (4.90 full season ERA) with Eric Milton (4.75 full season ERA)
    Or, replaced Jose Acevedo (6.64 ERA as a Starter) with Ramon Ortiz (5.47 ERA as as Starter)

    .
    I agree that Ortiz is somewhat of a wildcard at this point. Was his last season's debacle as a starter the start of a trend, or will he be happy/more relaxed/confident if he knows he has a starting job nailed all season as a Red?
    Too hard to predict, IMO. The thing I like about Ortiz is he cost us very little in trade bait, and he's had success in the past. Acevado is a AAAA player with no upside as a starter.

    Cory Lidle improved dramatically in Philly. He was not really an option for us to sign this winter, as apparently Philly wanted him bad (Why would he want to come back to Cincy to be trade bait again?) I don't remember anyone criticizing the Lidle deal at the time. Anyhow, while I know you are trying to compare 2005 and 2004, it seems fair to give Lidle's performance as a Red.
    Those two shutouts he pitched in Philly didn't contribute to the Reds' 2004 W-L, and we really didn't have the option of bringing Lidle back.
    In essense, Milton doesn't replace Lidle of 4.9 ERA. He replaces Lidle of 5.23 ERA or he replaces Claussen (if you're looking at the 2005 pool).
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  15. #164
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    What Steel just said.

    Just to add to that, one of the things we bump into every offseason is the insistence that no terribly bad pitchers will emerge in the coming season. Yet they always do. The 2005 Reds would do well if they only need 300 IP (roughly 33 games worth of pitching) from replacement-level pitchers. They don't have a staff full of reliable innings eaters and this isn't a workhorse bullpen.
    Even though I gave DanO a "B" (largely based on incremental improvement, I don't think anyone could transform this team into a contender in one winter),
    I agree with you.

    Ortiz is somewhat of a wildcard. The two youngsters (whoever they end up being) are wildcards. It's highly likely that at least one of those three will be a disaster. Fortunately, we have a little depth for a change (Claussen waiting in the wings). I think Ortiz can hover around .500 (worst case, but I could be wrong). Hudson and Harang are still a bit scary though.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  16. #165
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    You have to give the FO some credit. I would have been happy if he had just signed Wilson. Not only did we sign him, we got two pitchers who are just as good in Ortiz and Milton. Sure we overpaid but Dunn won't take a tremendous pay increase next year. Once Graves' contract comes off the books that money can be invested in Dunn and Wagner can hopefully be a solid closer. Not only did we DRAMATICALLY improve the pitching staff- remember when Harang was our second best starter even with Wilson. I'd take Milton, Wilson, Ortiz, Harang and Hudson any day of the week and twice on sunday over Harang, Hudson, Claussen, Hancock and Robertson. Sure we are a little older but any of our starters could break out and get their ERa's around 4 and or win 15 games. We have an outside chancew at the playoffs now. Look at the pen too. Graves is an ok closer, Wagner is showing signs of success, Acevedo is showing signs of success, Weber might rebound, Merker is solid and finally Weathers ain't bad. Not only did we add Randa and Aurillia, solidifying our infield but we retained Kearns, Dunn, Griffey and Pena. With Kearns/Pena, Freel, Aurillia, Cruz and Estellea/Valentin on the bench we have plenty of depth. I feel this was a dramatic step in the right direction. Sure we didn't add an ace but we added a lot of solid talent. I give them a B+ for this.


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