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Thread: Grade the offseason.

  1. #136
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfan30
    Actually the more I think about 4 pitchers with 10+ wins, the less far fetched it may be. Think of the run support this staff figures to get this year then think about this....

    Milton's career totalls seem to indicate that he is going to win 10 or more.

    Ortiz has one 16 and 15 games in his career.

    Harang pitched well last season and won 10 games so he has a chance.

    If Hudson pitches like we all think he can he is a definete threat to win 10 or more.

    Wilson was our best starter last season and got over the 10 win mark.

    That's five pitchers right there who you could make a legitimate case for them winning 10+ games this year. You know that not all five of them are going to do it, but maybe three or four is not totally out of the question.
    With an improved bullpen, Wilson would have had close to 20 wins

    The bullpen is improved, which means, if we get the run support one would think we can get, the bullpen should be able to actually hold leads and close out games this year

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  3. #137
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by red-in-la
    I guess I don't see the big difference between Jackson and Ortiz before they each came to the Reds. Thye both have VERY good points and really bad ones. The year before the Reds got Jackson he WALKED 109 batters.....and he LOST 18 games.

    Although Ortiz's ERA was generally not as good as Jackson, he was never the walk machine Jackson was.
    And Danny Jackson allowed 7, 13, and 11 HR in the three years preceeding his acquisition by the Reds. I'll take more than a few BB from a pitcher if he keeps his HR against at that level. Ortiz hasn't been anywhere near the pitcher Jackson was before he hit Cinci.

    As to Milton and Smiley and Neagle.....I was simply pointing out that all 3 were considered established ML pitchers who were at some what of a cross roads in their careers. Milton might well find that switching leagues will elevate his game....it might do the opposite.....but change right now seems like a good idea for him. Even though you guys have (maybe righfully so) doubted the intelligence of pay what they did, you cannot deny that he is far and away the BEST pitcher they have acquired or developed in a VERY long time....with Neagle in 1998 being the only other close copy.
    If Eric Milton is the "best" pitcher acquired or developed in a very long time, then that's a commentary on the quality of pitchers acquired or developed rather than a lauding of Eric Milton who, BTW, ranks no higher than Paul Wilson on the acquisition ladder. As for "change" being a good idea for Milton? He played exactly one season with the Phillies. How often is the guy supposed to change teams?
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
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  4. #138
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfan30
    To answer your question, yes I will admit I was wrong if they are out of the race by August.

    But my question to you is this: If Milton wins 16 games and posts and ERA of 4.40, strikesout close to 200 and improves on his homerun numbers...

    If Ortiz does similar things to Milton....

    If Randa hits .300 with 14 homers and 75 RBI and has another solid fielding percentage....

    If Weathers, Mercker and Weber help solidify the bullpen....

    and the Reds are still out of the race by August say due to injuries. Do you still consider this offseason a failure?
    Absolutely it's a failure because a successful offseason doesn't bank on multiple fluke performances like those you listed.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
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  5. #139
    Member red-in-la's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM
    Refresh my memory here ril, what did you say about the 2003 staff going into that season?
    I am fortunate MWM in that at my age, my memory is no longer able to embarrass me that way. And your point is vert well taken.....especially in 2003 since it was just an attempt to get over 2002.

    I can only say in my defense that this staff has 4 starters who have won 10 ML games in the very recent past......that certainly wasn't so true in 2003....or maybe it was....I don't remember.

    Now, where did I put that bottle of milk-of-amnesia?
    "Is there a problem officers?"

  6. #140
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM
    I'm not sure that's really all that gret a season. A 4.40 ERA is likely to be below the league average. If he finishes the season better than the league average, then I'll admit I'm wrong.



    Ditto for Ortiz. Although, if Ortiz pitches 200 innings at an ERA below 5.00 I'd consider that a successful season for him.

    But with both Ortiz and Milton, I'd gladly wager anything reasonable that says they won't do that. I hope like hell they do, but the odds say they won't.



    First of all, not to get into another stat argument, but replace BA with OPS and I'll make the same "league average" assertion for him. If he's above the league average and plays good defense, I'll consider it a good signing.

    For the record, I'm pretty indifferent about the Randa signing. I'm not thrilled about it, but I the money involved and the years involved make it pretty harmless. My only fear with Randa is that he'll be having a good "traditional" season with a decent batting average and the city will start screaming for the Reds to re-sign him and the FO will listen.



    Lots of "ifs" in your post. I don't think the bullpen will be a difference maker this season for the Reds. The starters are bad enough that a good bully won't matter.



    See, that's a built in excuse right now. I can see it already, the Reds are out of the race early and the offseason moves and it will all be because of injuries.

    I don't think it's all that relevant. For me it will come down to the pitching staff. If Eric Milton pitches like Eric Milton has pitched the last three years, and Ramon Ortiz pitches the way he has over the last two years, will you consider the offseason a failure?.....regardless of injuries to other players. If the players DanO acquired don't perform better than they have over the last couple of years, I think it's safe to say that the offseason was a failure.
    As far as Randa is concerned, his OBP is not outstanding. There is no arguing that. But as far as run production he is an upgrade over anything we could have put out there from in house.

    Yes there are alot of "ifs" in my post, but there that is what the offseason is all about. Nobody knows for sure what is going to happen. The offseason is one big giant "if."

    I would not use injuries as an excuse per se. I think the injuries are a big reason the club hit the downward spiral last season. Some may say that the numbers would say that it was coming regardless but I don't think there's any doubt that the injuries coincided with the fall. When Griffey, Kearns and Larkin all went out for long periods of time is right about the time the slide began. Were they the only reason, absolutely not. The pitching was bad and there is no getting around that. But injuries did play a role in the slide in my opinion.

    As far as Milton and Ortiz pitching the way they have recently, yes I think that is a success. 200 or more innings with good strikeout numbers and win totals. With what I think is an improved bullpen and an outstanding 1-8 lineup, yes I think that is good enough to win some games with.
    "Strickland Propane... Taste the meat, not the heat." - Hank Hill

  7. #141
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    As far as Milton and Ortiz pitching the way they have recently, yes I think that is a success. 200 or more innings with good strikeout numbers and win totals. With what I think is an improved bullpen and an outstanding 1-8 lineup, yes I think that is good enough to win some games with.
    So you'd consider the offseason a "success" if Milton posted a 4.80 or so ERA and if Ortiz posted an ERA over 5.00 in the rotation as he has the past coupld seasons as a starter?

    If that's "success", I'd hate to see failure.

    BTW, for the most part one can't predict injuries. But a team can guard against them. Believe it or not, the Reds lost little with Pena or Freel in CF versus Griffey and they should have known that Kearns was going to take some time to heal. Hard to blame injuries when it's preparation at which the finger should be pointed.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  8. #142
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Absolutely it's a failure because a successful offseason doesn't bank on multiple fluke performances like those you listed.
    I'm working on my detailed response, but reviewing my original post, I meant to say close to 200 innings out of Milton and Ortiz.

    My apologies.
    "Strickland Propane... Taste the meat, not the heat." - Hank Hill

  9. #143
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfan30
    I'm working on my detailed response, but reviewing my original post, I meant to say close to 200 innings out of Milton and Ortiz.

    My apologies.
    But if each gives the Reds 200 IP at a 4.80 and a 5.00+ ERA, you've just nailed the issue.

    That's not a "success". To be a success, they'd have to be far far better than they have been recently, meaning that we're counting on Dan O's crystal ball rather than reasonable expectations.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  10. #144
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfan30
    As far as Milton and Ortiz pitching the way they have recently, yes I think that is a success. 200 or more innings with good strikeout numbers and win totals.
    the problem with that line of thinking is that if both of these guys pitch like they have the last couple of years, they're not likely to win a lot of games. They'll lose a lot more than they'll win.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  11. #145
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Absolutely it's a failure because a successful offseason doesn't bank on multiple fluke performances like those you listed.
    I don't think any of those numbers I posted as "what ifs" for Milton, Ortiz and Randa would be totally "flukes."

    I said 16 wins for Milton with a 4.40 ERA with around 200 IP and better homerun numbers. His last four full seasons he has won 13, 15, 13 and 14 games so history says he may get close to 16 wins. As far as the ERA of 4.40 goes, it would take a twist of history to reach that. But at the same time there is no evidence that he is going to be at 5.00+. 43 homeruns is alot of homeruns. It'd be a pretty tough feat to top that number so one would think there's only one way to go and that's down. At least we can hope so. He's always had high homerun totals, but not that high.

    Ramon Ortiz has won 13, 15 and 16 games in his career so 16 would not be an unrealistic expectation. His career ERA is 4.60 and has been at 4.40 or lower three times. He's been over 200 innings twice and was close a third time.

    Joe Randa is a career .286 hitter and has been around the .287 mark the past three years. I set 14 homeruns as his "target" for 2005. The last five seasons he has his 16, 16, 15, 13 and 11. I set his RBI total "target" for 2005 at 75. The last five years he has driven in 106, 83, 80, 72 and 56. Yes last year he only hit 11 HR with 56 RBI which are steady declines over his career totals, but if I remember correctly he played most of last year injured. He has always been solid defensively so I don't know why that would change this season.

    The (for lack of a better term) "target" numbers I posted for the additions are not "flukes". They are for the most part reachable figures based on their career numbers. With the rest of the team around them, is that good enough? Yes I think it is. We are obviously going to score alot of runs this season which does nothing but support a pitcher. Is it acceptable? Depend on your definition of acceptable. For me, I can live with it because if they put these numbers up they will be helping the team win games.
    "Strickland Propane... Taste the meat, not the heat." - Hank Hill

  12. #146
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Since 1980, only 6 times has a NL pitcher had an ERA of 4.40 or above and won 16 or more games.

    Code:
    NATIONAL LEAGUE
    SEASON
    1980-2004
    
    WINS >= 16
    ERA >= 4.40
    LOSSES displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    WINS                          YEAR      W        W       ERA       L     
    1    Kevin Tapani             1998       19       19     4.85        9   
    T2   Kevin Ritz               1996       17       17     5.28       11   
    T2   Scott Elarton            2000       17       17     4.81        7   
    T2   Pedro Astacio            1999       17       17     5.04       11   
    T5   Garrett Stephenson       2000       16       16     4.49        9   
    T5   Jason Jennings           2002       16       16     4.52        8
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  13. #147
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Since 1980, only 6 times has a NL pitcher had an ERA of 4.40 or above and won 16 or more games.
    I love you man..... :

    How many were rockies?

  14. #148
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou
    I love you man..... :

    How many were rockies?
    You're still not having my Bud Light.

    3 of them were non-Rockies.

    this might be a little better. In the same time period, here are the pitchers who had an ERA +.2 over the league (NL only) who won 16 games. Pretty much the same names.

    Code:
    SEASON
    1980-2004
    
    WINS >= 16
    ERA <= -.2 vs. the league average
    LOSSES displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    ERA displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    WINS                          YEAR      W        W       ERA       L       ERA    
    1    Kevin Tapani             1998       19       19     -.61        9     4.85   
    T2   Kevin Ritz               1996       17       17    -1.06       11     5.28   
    T2   Shane Rawley             1987       17       17     -.30       11     4.39   
    T2   Pedro Astacio            1999       17       17     -.48       11     5.04   
    5    Jason Jennings           2002       16       16     -.40        8     4.52
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  15. #149
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Right at the end of last season, I gave DanO the following homework:
    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...ghlight=winter

    Here's what DanO has to do to earn a "C" this winter:

    1. Don't botch up the rule V draft. Don't draft someone injured. Don't draft a starting pitcher.. no good ones are ever exposed. INSTEAD:
    - draft a useful bullpen arm like Neu (usually a couple clubs every year can find a useful bullpen arm in Rule V, and with our pathetic pen, it wouldn't take much to find a useful arm
    - OR try the Bip Roberts strategy. Draft a high ceiling guy that will clearly be overmatched, and carry him for the year, then send him back to the minors for 2006.
    But please, we don't need any more Aaron Harangs. Don't try to find a starting pitcher. If any good ones are exposed, they will be gone long before we pick.

    2. Don't make any dumb trades. If you have to dump salary, get some value.
    Win any trades that you make.

    3. Dunn's contract. Don't go to arbitration. Settle it amicably. Don't go to arb over 200k like the Reds did with Casey a couple years ago.

    4. Sign at least 1 good bullpen arm. The bullpen SUCKS. You've had a year to see that, so do something about it.

    That's what I consider the BARE minimum to get a "C". If he wants an "A" or "B", he must do some or all of the following:

    1. We'll probably only have one veteran starter. Upgrade from Wilson. Use that payflex wisely. Don't be braindead and simply resign Wilson and take the rest of the winter off.

    2. Sign Dunn, Kearns and/or Pena to long term deals.

    3. Get some legitimate high ceiling prospects.

    4. Fix the bullpen. Fix the rotation.

    5. Fix the 3b problem. This Kearns experiment is not going to work well.
    Well, DanO skipped the Rule V draft, but that's ok, as he's added a bunch of players, so it doesn't make sense to rule V. He didn't do any dumb trades. He didn't take Dunn to arb. He reinforced the pen. He got Milton and Ortiz to reinforce the rotation. Not exactly dream material, but a big upgrade (IMO), and he fixed 3b with a cheap stopgap. Thus, I give him a "B"

    He didn't do everything I put on his homework, but he did a fine job. Sure, I'd rather have a SP better than Milton/Ortiz.. but think about how bad the alternative was. I honestly don't see how DanO gets below a "C-" this winter. Don't underestimate how difficult it was to get Milton. And for that matter, getting Ortiz for a marginal prospect was a good move.

    DanO had no trade bait, but was able to add 3 starting pitchers and 3 relievers. That's commendable, IMO.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  16. #150
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    I Don't Like To Be Negative Towards The Reds So I Will Say This..........First From All Implications Dunn and His Agents Agreed They Didn't Want A LTC As Of Now........Also Offering Dunn An Outrageous Amount Of Money Or Even A Reasonable Amount.... I Still Don't Think He Would Have Taken The Deal.....Lets Face It Until The Reds Start Winning They Won't Be Able To Sign LTC With Young Players In Their System.....So Everyone Who is Saying That Offering Dunn A Good Amount Of Money Would Have Kept Him For Along Time I Really Disagree.....Maybe If Winning This Coming Year and Getting In The Playoffs....This Might Get Dunn To Sign......I Also Can't Judge These Signings This Offseason Until I See Them Play This Season


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