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Thread: Grade the offseason.

  1. #181
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Redsland, nice posts. All of them.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

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  3. #182
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    if the goal is to get us into the post season anytime soon.
    And it's not, the goal is to build an infrastructure to get to the point where it's possible to get there more than once every 5-10 years.

    This is a "Ronco Salad Shooter" season, that salad shooter is great, does wonders, eventually wears down, or breaks completly. Between now and then it sells lots of salad and allows that perhaps that that will help contribute to them getting more than just lettuce and lemnon juice to put on that salad down the road.

    That's how I see it, for $19.99 some folks will enjoy the salad shooter and hope it works forever, others will never buy it and still others will use it till it's used up and hope that it enables them to get something better and more useful later on.

  4. #183
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou
    That's how I see it, for $19.99 some folks will enjoy the salad shooter and hope it works forever, others will never buy it and still others will use it till it's used up and hope that it enables them to get something better and more useful later on.
    Well, I'll take the salad shooter over a plastic knife that we would've had for the pitching staff if DanO sat on his hands.

    I can completely understand the disappoint of the posters who feel the 18 million of payflex could've been used to help with the longterm more. Not sure it was possible under the circumstances ( Clement/Perez seemed to be the only FAs some posters here wanted).

    I also see MWM's point that it's a reflection on the FO when the best FAs don't want to come here.

    I'm being optimistic (perhaps too much so), but I'm hoping that Milton, Ortiz, etc can raise the perception of this team a little bit and change the Reds' reputation to the point where in a couple of years, FAs won't automatically assume Cincy is a wasteland only interested in getting vet players to flip at the deadline for prospects.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  5. #184
    Cruisin' for trouble
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by Redsland
    Or putting it in his pocket until the trading deadline. Or saving it for the draft. Or printing up ticket vouchers to prop up attendance. Or throwing it into the deal that gets Danny Graves out of here. Or sticking it in the bank for a rainy day.

    He didn't have to give to 4.76, or 4.60, or 4.46, or even 4.19. But he did.

    We are ALL guessing here, unless someone with insider information is willing to come to the board and take questions.

    No?

    I don't find it difficult to believe that none of the top FAs wanted to come to Cincinnati. I find it relatively easy to believe that Sean Casey needed to get involved at some level to persuade Milton, Aurilia, et al. to come here and try to help. I have little doubt that this year's team would wax last year's team based on the new additions and the expected improvement in health over last year (knock on wood).

    What I can "guess", along with everyone else here, is that the moves DoB was able to make this year was meant to accomplish a few tasks, such as:

    1. Improve the team from last year. The Reds may still not have enough to make the playoffs, but they should at least improve on their record from last year.
    2. Change the environment in the clubhouse and the fan base. Most of the fans are providing positive feedback about the moves that were made during the offseason. Most of the pub has been pretty positive as well, so at least DoB has something to build on.
    3. Set the course for continuing improvement. Cincinnati has not been a place that top quality players want to play and has not been since Vaughn in 1999 (Griffey is a totally different story). It appears that the front office is making some noise about getting that problem resolved. Maybe the Reds didn't really want Milton, Weathers, Mercker, et al. But the FA signings of this year may pave the way for additional positive changes in the next couple of years.

    I like the way that a lot of pundits have taken the Reds to task, indicating that the Reds should have done more and then failing to mention the way to get that done. I may not agree with the moves that DoB has made this year, necessarily, but I see that he is at least making moves. Let's see if that leads to better offerings down the road as a result.

  6. #185
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM
    And if none of these players are interested in coming here right now, that in istelf is an indictment on the front office. If that's the case, then the Reds need to get guys in the FO who will make these guys want to come here.
    Fire the marketing director! Terminate the clubbies! Release Gapper! I want Odalis Perez!

  7. #186
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by iammrred
    Fire the marketing director!
    I've been saying that for years. The Cincinnati Reds are the marketed horribly and have been for a long tie. Want my single biggest gripe with the FO, it's their lack of marketing strategy.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  8. #187
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM
    I've been saying that for years. The Cincinnati Reds are the marketed horribly and have been for a long tie. Want my single biggest gripe with the FO, it's their lack of marketing strategy.
    I hear they moonlight making Gold Star Commercials and reccomended that the window guy use his daughters in his commercials.

  9. #188
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    157 Runs. That's the Run Differential improvement the Reds need to have a legit shot at a .500 W/L record in 2005.
    That's not what was asked. The question was if the Reds improved.

    They have.

    Simple, really.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  10. #189
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by Biitner Pill
    That's not what was asked. The question was if the Reds improved.

    They have.

    Simple, really.
    No one ever said that the Reds didn't improve. That's not at issue. Never has been.

    Problem is that folks seem to think that marginal improvment equates good offseason. It doesn't.

    Simple, really.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
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  11. #190
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Any improvement makes for a good offseason. You string enough improved offseasons together and you can eventually print WS tickets.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher

  12. #191
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by Biitner Pill
    Any improvement makes for a good offseason. You string enough improved offseasons together and you can eventually print WS tickets.
    Uh-uh.

    Each offseason is an opportunity to produce a playoff team. I care not that the Reds job is harder than some because the Reds started lower on the talent ladder.

    Substitute marginal improvement at high prices for putting a winning team together and you end up running in place at best due to talent attrition, particularly when there are no real studs ready in the system (particularly MLB-ready pitching studs).

    Teams like the Reds don't slowly inch up the ladder rung by rung as you seem to think. The Reds NEEDED to jump multiple rungs this offseason and simply failed to do it.

    Situational dynamics. Reds replaced bad with simply below average. Not good. Ever.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  13. #192
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Uh-huh.

    Difference of opinion here, SD. I believe improvement in any form is just that-- improvement. You know, getting better. Turning last season's losses into wins.

    As for "inching slowly up the ladder," I also disagree. "Inching" would mean jumping past at least one team in the standings this season. That team, at the moment, appears to be either Chicago or Houston.

    That is certainly doable.

    Also, forgive my ignorance, but what do you mean by talent attrition? I can;t seem to wrap my head around that particular phrase.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher

  14. #193
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Quote Originally Posted by Biitner Pill
    Uh-huh.

    Difference of opinion here, SD. I believe improvement in any form is just that-- improvement. You know, getting better. Turning last season's losses into wins.

    As for "inching slowly up the ladder," I also disagree. "Inching" would mean jumping past at least one team in the standings this season. That team, at the moment, appears to be either Chicago or Houston.

    That is certainly doable.
    You think the Reds are going to leapfrog either Chicago or Houston? To have a legit shot at either team, you're going to be needing a 190-200 Run Differential improvment. That's improbable at best and certainly not representative of "incremental" improvment.

    To move ahead of either of those teams, it takes the kind of rung leaping I mentioned regarding talent influx- which is what the Reds haven't done this offseason.

    Simply put, they brought in below average players and now you're expecting them to be at the center of a Run Diff improvement that would be truly historical in proportion for the Reds. That's not a reasonable expectation.

    We don't have a difference of opinion as much as we have a difference in reasoning. You think the Reds 76 Wins last year were representative of the baseline and that the players acquired will add wins to that. I know that they're not building on 76 Wins. They're building on 65.

    Also, forgive my ignorance, but what do you mean by talent attrition? I can;t seem to wrap my head around that particular phrase.
    Incremental improvement of the type we're looking at means that the team won't be ready to do anything by the time much of the young talent is still either young or under the Reds' control.

    Talent attrition.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  15. #194
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    As far as the Reds jumping past Houston/Chicago, I don't think it just comes down to the Reds' improvements, but the possibility of those two flopping.

    Houston: Lost Miller, Beltran. Berkman out for at least a while. Biggio/Bagwell a year older.

    Chicago: Lost Clement, lost Sosa(not sure how bad that is at this point), lost Alou(ouch), lost Farnsworth... still have Wood/Prior, but the risk of them getting injured is a concern, as is the possibility that Maddux might start slipping further and that Rusch might not be so good.

    I can easilly see both of them scoring fewer(maybe a decent amount)/giving up more runs(maybe a decent amount).

  16. #195
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    Re: Grade the offseason.

    Regarding talent attrition, then, is for the future. As for today (and this particular offseason), no one of significance (with the possible exception of Dustin Moseley) has been lost. Therefore, no talent attrition.

    As to below average, we will again have to disagree. I see talent added, with lesser talent departing. As stated in my original post, I see two starters added that are much better (a half run per game started) than those that left Cincinnati. I see three bullpen arms-- two with stratospherically better ERA's and one even you assume to be more valuable-- than those that left in 2004. I see a solid 3B 100 OPS better than the aggregate chaff sent to the hot corner last season.

    In short, I see the probability of improvement and the possiblity of marked improvement.

    Too, as many have previously pointed out, both Houston and Chicago (those teams you assume Cincinnati has zero shot at outperforming taking giant steps down the ladder of competitiveness.

    Chicago lost two-thirds of an outfield and now relies on three above average bats, questionable defense, an untried and unproven bullpen, and a truly outstanding pitching staff. Hey, one out of four ain't bad, right? Both teams lost a large part of their offensive output from last season. (More than any in the game, in fact.) In Chicago, the two lost stars accounted for 70+ home runs, a combined OPS over 850, and about 200 RBI. Between Sosa, Alou, Clement, and other assorted Cubbies, they lost over 60 win shares from last year's team.

    That's a bunch. Perhaps, however, they added help in the offseason. Win share gain? Zero.


    Houston, OTOH, lost an All Star caliber 2B and CF, have holes in two outfield positions, questions at two infield positions, and no clue behind an admittedly superior starting rotation. Their closer is outstanding; however, the rest of the Astro bullpen is less than stellar. The Astronomicals lost more than 60 win shares as well. Win share gain? Again, zero.

    The Reds? Lost 10 from Larkin. Gained 8 for Milton and 6 for Mercker.

    Certainly, the Reds helped themselves, while both the Cubs and Astros took a step (or two) down the ladder.

    Therefore, those incrimental steps forward I discussed earlier (and you agreed to), it seems to me, look like rung leaping to me while comparing the Cincinnati offseason to those of both Chicago and Houston. I see a Red team that could improve its Run Differential by (assuming relatively healthy seasons by all Reds with the exception of Junior and age-related improvements by Dunn, Kearns, Lopez, Harang, Claussen, Wagner, et al) 100 runs. I could also see both Chicago and Houston losing 100+ runs apiece, due to a lack of offseason moves, questionable hitters, and either a weak pen or a weak back end of the rotation.

    But, again, I am seeing the world through rose-colored glasses and I'm not nearly the statistical expert that you are.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher


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