Draft Opinions

[Red Leader]

I've drawn the 4th position in my Fantasy league that I'm in with some co-workers. It is a competitive league, and there are 10 teams.

I'm pretty sure Pujols, ARod, and Vlad will go 1, 2, 3. That leaves me with the choices of Beltran, Tejada, Soriano, Santana, or the Big Unit in position #4.

Our categories are:

R, H, HR, RBI, SB, BB, K, AVG, OPS for hitters

IP, W, L, SV, BB, K, ERA, WHIP for pitchers.

Positions are:

C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, UTIL, UTIL, UTIL for hitters

SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P for pitchers.

I'm leaning towards taking Beltran with the 4th pick and hoping a pitcher like Jason Schmidt or Roy Oswalt falls to me in the 2nd round.

The other option is to take Santana with pick #4 and go for a hitter in round #2. Mark Teixeira or Miguel Cabrera should be there for my 2nd round pick.

So, if you were me, which option would you lean toward?

Beltran and Schmidt/Oswalt
or
Santana and Teixeira/Cabrera.

Or would you go with a different pair because of my categories and positions.

There are 11 hitting positions and 9 pitcher positions

There are 9 hitting categories and 8 pitching categories.

This is a head to head league.

[Stewie]

I'd take Beltran or Abreu. There's plenty of good pitchers that you can pick in the middle rounds who will do well (Harden, Greinke, Oliver Perez, Peavy, Zambrano, etc etc) who can help you out. I just would rather take the sure thing and get a dominant offensive player, I think they are more of a sure thing than a pitcher. Beltran or Abreu can help you more categories than Santana could.

[jmcclain19]

Beltran's high playoff numbers sheild that he's an overpaid guy who's played in hitters parks for years. this year, playing in Shea will unmask that.

Personally, my draft strategy has always been pitching, pitching and pitching. Stewie's got some good advice. I've had Abreu for years and he's amazing as a fantasy player. Always heavily underrated.

[jmcclain19]

Tejada, BTW, is an ironman and will likely play 162 games and compete for the MVP again. He'll have Sosa hitting behind him, as well as Palmerio and Lopez again with Brian Roberts and Melvin Mora in front of him.. He's probably, outside of the Yankees, in the best hitting situation in the AL.

[Red Leader]

Beltran's high playoff numbers sheild that he's an overpaid guy who's played in hitters parks for years. this year, playing in Shea will unmask that.

Personally, my draft strategy has always been pitching, pitching and pitching. Stewie's got some good advice. I've had Abreu for years and he's amazing as a fantasy player. Always heavily underrated.

Josh, are you saying that you think Beltran will be a bust this year?

I don't see that. He's got Jose Reyes and Kaz Matsui in front of him and Piazza behind him. I'm guessing he puts up similar stats to last year's and raises his avg a little this year.

I also think Abreu is a great player. Didn't really think about him as high as #4.

[jmcclain19]

I'm using OPS cause it's a quick and dirty way to show my point.

Beltran's .915 OPS was 24th in the NL last year.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/...hand=a&pos=all

2003, his OPS was .911, tied for 28th in the MLB

His last three years, he's had a much worse OPS .862 than he did on the road .915.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlbhist/pl...2&type=batting


Park factor of Kauffman - 1.278
Park factor of Shea - 0.975

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

Meaning he's always hit better on the road, lifting his numbers at home for his averages. Now he's playing in a park that is even less friendly to hitters, meaning he'll have to be an absolute monster on the road all season just to equal his numbers.

All of those point to concern, from me anyway.

Teixeria and Tejada have better numbers. Teixeria is up over Beltran in every cat in 2004.

[Johnny Footstool]

I also think Abreu is a great player. Didn't really think about him as high as #4.

Abreu had 30 HR and 40 SB last year. No one else in the OPS top 20 had more than 15 SBs.

He's a monster.

[Red Leader]

I see your point, Josh. That's the tricky part of drafting for this league. It's not a roto league. I need someone that consistently will outproduce the player in the other teams lineup week in and week out. I'm not sure who would do that for me.

For the record, I am very down on Alfonso Soriano this year. I think he WILL be a bust. He won't run very much because of his injury problems and his BB/K rate is awful. Otherwise, he would have been my choice at #4 because of the lack of depth at 2B.

Abreu does have a higher OPS than Beltran and his 40 steals are impressive enough to think about selecting him at #4. I'm praying that Vlad falls to me at #4 (and someone takes Beltran 3rd, but I'm doubting that will happen).

[jmcclain19]

Everyone's got their own strategy RL.

I know I'm quirky when it comes to baseball. We have an NL only league that has 26 man starting rosters. So it forces you to really scour and look at value for your buck (it's a bidder/auction league).

Whatever you do, look at the stats, and balance that against your gut and go with it.

[Red Leader]

I'm seriously hoping that Beltran goes with one of the top 3 picks, because if Vlad would fall to me in the 4th spot I would be ecstatic to take him. I'm going to try and send out some "feeler" emails on Monday to see if I can get a sense of which way guys are leaning and to throw out some "I hope Beltran is there for my 4th pick, I'm dying to have him on my team" stuff. After looking at Abreu's stats from last year and reading more about him in draft previews, I'm not so sure he isn't a better pick than Beltran at this point. Many project Beltran at .285/35/105/40 this year and Abreu at .300/30/100/35. I think Abreu will be closer to those projections.

[Red Leader]

I'll add that this league is usually pretty predictable. Everybody loads up on hitters in the first round, and usually the 2nd. I wouldn't be surprised to see Santana last until about the 9th or 10th pick at the end of the first round and the Big Unit fall to the beginning part of the second round. Schmidt, Oswalt, and Sheets might all go in the 2nd round, but I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two of them fall to the 3rd round...that's how much owner's in this league load up on hitting in the early going. Because of this, that is why I was thinking of going with a hitter in the first round vs. a pitcher but because Santana is so dominant in IP, W, L, K, ERA, and WHIP, I have given some thought about nabbing him in the first round, and looking for the best hitter available in round 2.

On the other hand, if I grab pitchers in the first and second round, I'm missing out on a lot of "stud" hitters, but I should be able to find good values in hitters while they are selecting pitchers in rounds 3-6 or so.

Now, I'm really confused on what to do. :MandJ:

[MuEconRedLeg]

I'll add that this league is usually pretty predictable. Everybody loads up on hitters in the first round, and usually the 2nd. I wouldn't be surprised to see Santana last until about the 9th or 10th pick at the end of the first round and the Big Unit fall to the beginning part of the second round. Schmidt, Oswalt, and Sheets might all go in the 2nd round, but I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two of them fall to the 3rd round...that's how much owner's in this league load up on hitting in the early going. Because of this, that is why I was thinking of going with a hitter in the first round vs. a pitcher but because Santana is so dominant in IP, W, L, K, ERA, and WHIP, I have given some thought about nabbing him in the first round, and looking for the best hitter available in round 2.

On the other hand, if I grab pitchers in the first and second round, I'm missing out on a lot of "stud" hitters, but I should be able to find good values in hitters while they are selecting pitchers in rounds 3-6 or so.

Now, I'm really confused on what to do. :MandJ:

If Vlad fell to me at four I would be all over it. If not I would go Abreu in the first and grab my closer in the second. Then I would pick up that complimentary hitter in the 3rd round. Tex/Cabrera might still be there.

It is tough to not take a stud starter if the league goes hitter heavy. But, I have always found it is more effective to maximize two start pitchers and match-ups in a head to head league.

[Red Leader]

I was all set to take Johan Santana with the first pick, and then Vlad fell to me at #4. I couldn't pass him up. Here is how the draft ended up. Pujols, A-Rod, and Tejada went 1.2.3.

1. Vladimir Guerrero, OF
2. Randy Johnson, SP
3. Ben Sheets, SP
4. Nomar Garciaparra, SS
5. Francisco Rodriguez, RP
6. Adam Dunn, OF
7. Ivan Rodriguez, C
8. A.J. Burnett, SP
9. Travis Hafner, 1B
10. Lance Berkman, OF
11. David Wright, 3B
12. Brian Giles, OF
13. Jeremy Bonderman, SP
14. B.J. Ryan, RP
15. Freddy Garcia, SP
16. Preston Wilson, OF
17. Kevin Brown, SP
18. Jason Bay, OF
19. Kaz Matsui, 2B
20. Cliff Lee, SP

I wasn't planning on taking R. Johnson, Berkman, P.Wilson, or J.Bay, but given how far they dropped, I couldn't resist. My biggest regret was that I didn't take Barry Bonds, and he was there for me in the 8th round. Unbelievable. I completely forgot about him still being out there. I plan on putting Berkman in a DL spot and picking up Tony Womack, Cuddyer, or Tadahito Iguchi until Matsui establishes eligibility at 2B.

I'm not so sure if I like the picks of Kevin Brown and Cliff Lee, but I can always drop them and pick up either a two start pitcher that week, or a "hot" pitcher.

I think I should have K's wrapped up each week between Randy Johnson, Ben Sheets, Francisco Rodriguez, and B.J. Ryan. Garcia, Bonderman, Burnett and Lee help there as well.

[Red Leader]

Also, notable players that didn't get drafted:

Jason Giambi, Phil Nevin, Ben Broussard, Jeff Bagwell, Luis Gonzalez (Ari), Coco Crisp, Frank Thomas, Mike Sweeney, Richard Hidalgo, Geoff Jenkins, Trot Nixon.

Juan Rincon, Doug Davis, Adam Eaton, Paul Byrd, Miguel Batista, Randy Wolf, Esteban Loiaza, Erik Bedard, Kip Wells, Mike Adams, Horacio Ramirez, Brandon Backe, Dan Haren, Bob Wickman, Jose Mesa.

If anyone thinks there is anyone on those lists that would be better on my team than my current players, let me know. I was thinking of dropping either Kevin Brown or Cliff Lee and picking up another closer to help with saves: Bob Wickman, Jose Mesa, Mike Adams, Miguel Batista, and Chin-hui Tsao are the available closers.

[Red Leader]

The players I'm not sure of are: Jason Bay, Preston Wilson for my hitters and Kevin Brown and Cliff Lee as my pitchers.

Will the arm injuries Jason Bay suffered sap him of his power for a long time?
Preston Wilson has looked good in camp so far, if he gets back close to 100% he's a steal in round 16.
Kevin Brown: on the decline, for sure. But can be good in W, ERA, and WHIP.
Cliff Lee: Chosen by some to break out this year. Good K numbers, but he was rocked in the 2nd half last year. Was it because he was injured? Worn out? Not sure what to expect of him.