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Thread: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

  1. #106
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    Quote Originally Posted by DoogMinAmo
    Perhaps Steel it has more to do with blowout wins/losses in addition to one run wins to distort the run differential. (Or even better, one run wins with extra emphasis on those won in last at bat. Walk off wins are the sign of a team who has to scrap to win, but doesn't really "deserve" the win. I know statistically it can not directly affect Pecota, it still might be an interesting corollary.)
    Dunno, man. If we think it has anything to do with a combination of one-run and blowout Win %, we might be wrong as well...

    2004 Reds: 25-20 W/L One-Run, 11-35 W/L "Blowout"
    2004 Yankees: 24-16 W/L One-Run, 27-28 W/L "Blowout"

    BTW, I still refuse to believe that losing by five Runs is a true "Blowout" scenario, but that's what baseballreference.com uses to define it so that's what we get.

    The "Blowout" record is significantly different. The Reds were horrid in games decided by 5 or more Runs but the Yankees were a virtual 50/50 proposition. That's not enough to "tilt" the Run Differential against the Yanks unless they were losing by incredible amounts (15+ Runs) when they were on the losing end of those "Blowout" losses. But they lost only two games by more than 9 Runs (11 and 22 <ouchie>). And they were just as likely to knock the crud out of the opponent as they were to lose by 9 or less.

    So...dunno.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
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  3. #107
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    I haven't looked at anyone else's predictions so as to not be influeneced.

    75-87

    Pitching just isn't there.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  4. #108
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    I'll say 77-85, and it will be a monster mountain of bad pitching and injuries to climb over to reach that plateau.

  5. #109
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    76 to 80 Wins
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  6. #110
    For a Level Playing Field RedFanAlways1966's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    72-90

    Hope I'm wrong!
    Small market fan... always hoping, but never expecting.

  7. #111
    SERP deep cover ops WebScorpion's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    I guess this is the post Spring Training predicition, because we already did one of these in February. First 2005 prediciton thread
    Anyway, I got the seer out to the park again and this time she tossed some bones down on home plate and read them. She's sticking with the 92-70 prediction with a Wild Card playoff spot.
    REDZ RAWK!!

    "Okay you guys, pair up in threes!" --Yogi Berra

  8. #112
    Moderator Tommyjohn25's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    86-76.
    Benzinger backing and calling! And the 1990 world championship series belongs to the Cincinnati Reds!

  9. #113
    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    Quote Originally Posted by WebScorpion
    I guess this is the post Spring Training predicition, because we already did one of these in February. First 2005 prediciton thread
    Bah! There can be only one!

    I plan to aggregate the predictions in this thread with the predictions from the last 3 years and run a few calculations on them and post the results. IIRC, alloverjr has been spot on all three seasons.

    GL

  10. #114
    Your killin' me Smalls! StillFunkyB's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    90 wins if everyone stays relatively healthy.

    76 wins if players are spending time with Doc Hollywood.

  11. #115
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    91-71

  12. #116
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    I'm less optimistic than I was in the earlier thread, not sure why... 79-83.

  13. #117
    getting younger alloverjr's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    75 - 87

    And this is only Milton's first year.
    This place use to be fun

  14. #118
    SERP Emeritus paintmered's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Leader
    If Graves gets 48 saves this year, I'll get a portrait of him tattoed on my back that says "dANNy rAwKs, gO rEDS" under it, mullett and all. :MandJ:

    You wrote it. We can make you live up to it :mhcky21:

    SERPs Unite!!


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  15. #119
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    Hey, can we get a sticky on this until OD?

    PECOTA on the Reds

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=3877

    Reds 76 86 .472 789 836

  16. #120
    Puffy 3:16 Puffy's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfanmia
    90-72 and Joe Randa makes the all-star team.
    If the Reds win 90 games AND Joe Randa makes the all-star team I will get a giant tattoo on my back with Danny Graves picture that says "Nobody Scores on Danny Graves" - - mullet and all.
    "I came here to kick ass and chew bubble gum... and I'm all out of bubble gum."
    - - Rowdy Roddy Piper

    "It takes a big man to admit when he is wrong. I am not a big man"
    - - Fletch


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