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Thread: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

  1. #91
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric
    Steel- Serious question because I'm not fully aware of the Pythag theory. Is it possible that the structure of the Reds ballclub makes us better suited to beat the prediction? Like do offensive clubs that score more runs have a bigger error size? I'm trying to make this question sound clear, I hope it is.
    Wish I could give you a real clear answer on that, Ced. But I can't. As Johnny mentioned, there's only theory. When you take a look at the top RS teams from last season, you get this:

    Team (RS): +/- Wins v Pythag

    Boston (949 RS): +2 Wins
    NY Yankees (897 RS): +12 Wins
    Chicago White Sox (865 RS): -1 Win
    Texas Rangers (860 RS): +2 Wins
    Cleveland Indians (858 RS): -1 Win
    St. Louis Cardinals (855 RS): +5 Wins
    San Francisco Giants (850 RS): +3 Wins
    Baltimore Orioles (842 RS): -4 Wins
    Philadelphia Phillies (840 RS): +/- 0 Wins
    Anaheim Angels (836 RS): +1 Win

    The only thing that sticks out there like a truly sore thumb is the +12 Wins posted by the Yankees. The Cards won 5 more than Pythag says they should have, but that's not an extreme scenario.

    So why did the Yankees win so many more games than they "should have"? Was it because of a great offense? Doesn't seem to be. Was the pen that good in "locking down" victories? Other that Rivera, not at all. The pen was a huge issue all season long (and if it were purely a "closer" thing, then no way the Reds get +9 Wins via Danny Graves).

    Balanced power throughout the lineup? Cubs had a very balanced power lineup as well but finished five games UNDER their projection.

    So what happened? Dunno. Can't put a finger on it...except...maybe...

    One Run Games:

    NY Yankees: 24-16 (.600 Win %)
    Cincinnati Reds: 25-20 (.556 Win %)
    St. Louis Cardinals: 29-20 (.592 Win %)

    Maybe? Eh, but then you find the White Sox playing 28-18 (.609 Win %) ball in one-Run games and it blows that theory to smithereens as well. And even if it held, we'd still need to find an attributable consistent cause for those high close-game Win percentages.

    Without any attributable cause that's consistent from team-to-team, simple chance is about all we have left.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
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  3. #92
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    I'll go with 81-81.
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  4. #93
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    I'm going with 82-80. :randa:
    'When I'm not longer rapping, I want to open up an ice cream parlor and call myself Scoop Dogg.'
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  5. #94
    Pagan/Asatru Ravenlord's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    Is it possible that the structure of the Reds ballclub makes us better suited to beat the prediction?
    that's where i think team chemistry comes into play. i think if you take the difference between actual and Pythag records, you get an approximate of how well the team meshes togehter...i think it has to be 3 or better in either direction to apply thought.
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  6. #95
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    90-72 and Joe Randa makes the all-star team.

  7. #96
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Ravenlord
    that's where i think team chemistry comes into play. i think if you take the difference between actual and Pythag records, you get an approximate of how well the team meshes togehter...i think it has to be 3 or better in either direction to apply thought.
    I think it would have to more than 3, IMO. Unless a team consistently outperforms it's pythag, or significantly outperforms it in one season (i.e. 2004 Yanks), I think you can pretty much attribute it to a random occurrence over 162 games.
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  8. #97
    smells of rich mahogany deltachi8's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    72-90. Not enough pitching, not nearly enough pitching.
    Nothing to see here. Please disperse.

  9. #98
    A Little to the Left Redsfaithful's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    83-79
    We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.
    --Oscar Wilde

  10. #99
    Joe Oliver love-child Blimpie's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    88-74 :lindner:
    "Booing on opening day is like telling grandma her house smells like old lady."--WOY

  11. #100
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    90 Wins
    72 Losses

    Dunn 52 HRs
    Griffey 34 HRs
    Kearns 26 HR, .310
    Wily Mo 30 HR

    Casey .304
    Jimenez .270
    Freel 32 SBS

    Milton 16W
    Wilson 10W
    Ortiz 12w

    Graves 48 SV

  12. #101
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    Quote Originally Posted by butlerbulldogs
    Graves 48 SV
    If Graves gets 48 saves this year, I'll get a portrait of him tattoed on my back that says "dANNy rAwKs, gO rEDS" under it, mullett and all. :MandJ:
    'When I'm not longer rapping, I want to open up an ice cream parlor and call myself Scoop Dogg.'
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  13. #102
    Curveballer Candy Cummings's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    78-84.
    **I'm just throwing the world curve balls.**

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  14. #103
    Member PickOff's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    88 wins

    milton 14
    ortiz 13
    harang 12
    wilson 12
    claussen/hancock/hudson 15
    webber 3
    weathers 4
    merker 5
    graves 2
    wagner 4
    coffey 1
    (others) 3

  15. #104
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    84-78. A step in the right direction again.

  16. #105
    Porkchop Sandwiches DoogMinAmo's Avatar
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    Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

    Perhaps Steel it has more to do with blowout wins/losses in addition to one run wins to distort the run differential. (Or even better, one run wins with extra emphasis on those won in last at bat. Walk off wins are the sign of a team who has to scrap to win, but doesn't really "deserve" the win. I know statistically it can not directly affect Pecota, it still might be an interesting corollary.)
    "I'm a Cucumber, I'm a cucumber. I'm a cucumber, I'm a cucumber. I'm a cucumber, I'm a cucumber. Please don't send me to the pickle farm, bum." - Brak

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