MLB Rumors 6/16- Reds Players 2

[Red Leader]

What if Harang is really good in 2006 and 2007? Sure, he'll make watching every fifth day bearable, but where does that get us as a whole? I'm not saying deal him no matter what, but if you can get a teams top 2 pitching prospects for him, and your scouts tell you they are the "real deal", then you should pull the trigger, IMO.

Can't have it both ways. There is no short cut to rebuilding and doing it right. Have to completely gut it and hope that all of your talent develops at once, hope everyone hits their "prime" in 3-4 years and is still relatively inexpensive so you can add other pieces if you need to. I think Harang is a good, young pitcher, but he's not so good that you keep him for 3-4 years as he starts costing real $$$$, instead of trading him for younger pitchers who's development curve is more in line with your timeline to compete.

[Redmachine2003]

If you going to have a firesale sell while there value is High instead of just releasing them when their value is gone.

[TeamBoone]

We have a farm league full of prospects. We have what appears to be a decent young pitcher with no where to go but up in Aaron Harang.

Keep him as a proven commodity over a couple more prospects that probably won't pan out or if they do, they get rid of them anyway, just like they did Mosely.

It's a vicious circle. Somewhere along the line you need to bite the bullet and hang on to the keepers. Otherewise, you never ever get beyond the prospects.

[rdiersin]

Maybe you could embellish on why you think he's having a flukish year and don't think he can continue at this level for the next 5... because at this point in his career, I don't understand how you can possibly make that determination.

As you say, he's young. He's taken a giant step up this year. Why is there more reason to think he's a fluke rather than a promising young pitcher with a whole lot of upside?

Personally, I don't think anyone can truly answer that question at this point in time. Thus, shouldn't he be given some time to continue to develop... with the Reds? Do you really think they should rid themselves of a promising young pitcher based on conjecture? Especially when they do enough of that already.

For once, I hope they do it right and wait long enough to make an informed decision based on facts. Only hindsight will tell for sure, but trading him now is foolish in my opinion. They could easily be giving away a really promising future to another team just as easily as not. And for what? Another unknown who may not be as promising in the long run? When pitching is a team's weakness, to me, you just don't take that chance based on an uneducated guess that his performance in 2005 may be a fluke.

What makes you think that he is going to keep pitching this way? He's young? Not really he's already 27, not old, but not that young. The question is whether or not he is going to keep this up. I have given his stats previously, but lets look at his first 6 games. He has 6.44 K/9, in 36 IP. In his last 7 games he's got 10.4 K/9 in 47.2 IP. Obviously this isn't the best analysis because it is a small sample size, but it makes you wonder if this is some grand epiphany of his or a "fluke". I think he is a low 4's era, maybe high 3's type pitcher, and is very servicable. Nobody is advocating trading him for the sake of trading him, but if the right deal comes around, the Reds are crazy not to consider it.

[klw]

Why would we trade Harang when we already have Bubba Nelson and Bong?

[KronoRed]

Harang reminds me of Elmer Dessens, except he k's more batters and goes a bit longer in games, but he's not an ace, I hate the idea of trading one of the only arms we have, but if we can get a potential ACE or 2 for him we should, we aren't close, best we don't act like we are.

[TeamBoone]

What makes you think that he is going to keep pitching this way? He's young? Not really he's already 27, not old, but not that young. The question is whether or not he is going to keep this up. I have given his stats previously, but lets look at his first 6 games. He has 6.44 K/9, in 36 IP. In his last 7 games he's got 10.4 K/9 in 47.2 IP. Obviously this isn't the best analysis because it is a small sample size, but it makes you wonder if this is some grand epiphany of his or a "fluke". I think he is a low 4's era, maybe high 3's type pitcher, and is very servicable. Nobody is advocating trading him for the sake of trading him, but if the right deal comes around, the Reds are crazy not to consider it.

Exactly! So lets not make a decsion based on wondering... let's find out, then make the decision.

It's like conjuring up a theory without the facts because before long the facts are being bent to support the theory. Instead, get the facts and then come up with a theory based on them.

[Red Leader]

Harang reminds me of Elmer Dessens, except he k's more batters and goes a bit longer in games, but he's not an ace, I hate the idea of trading one of the only arms we have, but if we can get a potential ACE or 2 for him we should, we aren't close, best we don't act like we are.

Good post, Krono. I see him much the same way. I can totally see the Reds hanging onto Harang and going year by year the next couple years and then signing him to a LTC and him being here a long time, like the pitching version of Sean Casey. Problem is, I think his contract starts to outweigh his production much sooner, like in about 2-3 years. They'll basically give him his LTC based on the performance he gave them in the year to year contracts, instead of what they project him for in the future.

Why do the Reds always do that?

"Here's your reward for playing well in your 1 year contract years, we'll give you a 3 yr 23M contact." Even though everyone knows that player has already had his career year before year 1 of that LTC.


Drives me friggin' crazy.

[rdiersin]

Exactly! So lets not make a decsion based on wondering... let's find out, then make the decision.

Look at Harang's stats. I'm not making a decision based on wondering. I am looking at his past stats and current stats and making a decision that I am not going to get Wilsoned. I am not going to let one good start to the year cloud my judgement. If I get a great deal, I'm taking it, because he has not shown this kind of performance in the past. If he turns out well, fine, but I am going to make sure I get a couple prospects that will more than make up for, even if some of them don't pan out. That's how you make the deal. The Reds don't have to trade him. But if the right deal comes along, I'm not closing my mind to it.

[traderumor]

What if Harang is really good in 2006 and 2007? Sure, he'll make watching every fifth day bearable, but where does that get us as a whole? I'm not saying deal him no matter what, but if you can get a teams top 2 pitching prospects for him, and your scouts tell you they are the "real deal", then you should pull the trigger, IMO.

Can't have it both ways. There is no short cut to rebuilding and doing it right. Have to completely gut it and hope that all of your talent develops at once, hope everyone hits their "prime" in 3-4 years and is still relatively inexpensive so you can add other pieces if you need to. I think Harang is a good, young pitcher, but he's not so good that you keep him for 3-4 years as he starts costing real $$$$, instead of trading him for younger pitchers who's development curve is more in line with your timeline to compete.

Good post.

[KronoRed]

Agreed RL, the Reds are in love with the idea of hometown players, Johnny Bench type stuff, sadly you rarely get to build around guys like that and with our payroll it sinks us right off the bat.

[CTA513]

The Reds will trade Harang for some prospects, then those prospects will get hurt in the minors.

[Matt700wlw]

An organization that needs pitching desperately, shouldn't trade a quality pitcher. He may not stay "ace" caliber for another 5 years, but most people agreed even going into this year, he'd be a solid 3, 4 or 5.

[KronoRed]

The Reds will trade Harang for some prospects, then those prospects will get hurt in the minors.

Lets think positively people

[Gallen5862]

We should keep Harang as one of the young pitchers to build around.