Dunn on the bench for tonight's game -- defacto game thread

[TRF]

I don't of anything like that. Though 1.000 - OB technically gives you an outs created rate.

but it wouldn't take double plays into effect.

I'm curious as to the comparison of OB between the low K guy, and the high K guy where OBP is equal or close, say within 10 points, and the number of outs said batters create, including double plays.

Casey until this season has been a pretty low DP guy. This year He's K'd 18 time to Dunn's 70, but Casey has made more outs. Since we know he's made more outs, we can assume he has created more outs too, but I wonder how to figure that number out.

[Roy Tucker]

Roy’s game notes…

Grandma paid for all the food. Lizzy celebrated by eating 2 cheese coneys and cotton candy. Roy just got a hot dog. Jen got chicken strips to the tune of $7.75. The $20’s were flying out of Grandma’s pocketbook.

Pre-game – We get there too late for me to holler at Miley about Dunn. We’re standing about 20 ft. behind him during the Star Spangled Banner and I’m thinking about taking my pencil to Miley’s scorecard. Maybe he won't notice the Dunn LF. The lady who sung the SSB reminded me of a lady from church. Miles didn’t look happy.

1st inning – Furcal triples (man he can fly) and the .170 hitting Kelly Johnson hits a 2 run HR. Just like that. A Giles and Laroche 1B, a Estrada HBP, and a Langerhans BB (isn’t Langerhans some kind of body organ) yield a 3-zip lead. About 1/3 of the crowd is pro-Braves which I really hate and is making a *lot* of noise. Roy compensates by hollering his fool head off for the balance of the game. Ortiz weasels out of it by preying on the bottom of the lineup. Ortiz was getting lit up like a Christmas tree. We’re talking rockets, tracers, and blasts. Just like the Ortiz we saw last Tuesday against Tampa Bay.

Freel hits a rocket back up the middle and Lopez homers and just like that, it’s 3-2. Casey, Griffey, and Randa all ground out. Which starts a trend, Ramirez gets 15 ground ball outs out of the next 21 outs. Casey contributing 4 balls to the pitcher and SS. Ramirez was really helped out by an excellent Atlanta defense.

Poor Estrada takes a foul tip off the cup and goes down like he got caught by a Thomas Hearns hook. He was in a world of serious hurt. I mean, my nads ached just by watching at him. The ump did everything he could to give him time to recover. He sac’ed up and soldiered on.

Game settles down a little bit. Ramirez gets a good rhythm going and the Reds get only 2 more hits over the next 5 innings. Ortiz continues to give up solo HRs, Jones in the 3rd, Betimit in the 4th, and Jones again in the 5th. The last one was a real moon shot halfway up the second deck in LF. One of those Griffey almost stole off the top of the CF wall but he mistimed/misjudged it. A Mariners-era Griffey wold have gotten it with flair and ease.

Freel manufactures a 2 out run in the 5th (BB, SB, then scores on a Lopez single)

The real killer was the 6th when they brought in Keisler. Poor guy didn’t deserve his fate. Betemit reaches out and just serves one into LF. Everyone expects Ramirez to bunt. Instead, Betemit goes on the first pitch and Ramirez hits a perfect DP ball to Lopez. But the trouble is, Lopez is covering second, and it goes for a perfect run and hit. Furcal gets an infield hit and the bases are loaded without a decent hit ball. Keisler makes his only mistake of the inning and it’s a whopper. The Reds make Kelly Johnson look like Babe Ruth and he hits a grand slam. Johnson, a .170 hitter has 2 HRs and 6 RBIs. Jeez. 10-3 Braves.

Wily Mo hits a 2 run shot in the 6th to bring a rise out of the crowd to get the Reds back to 10-5. Casey kills a 7th inning rally with a 4-6-3 DP, er, Casey. And half the ballpark was yelling at him to not hit into a DP. An 8th inning rally dies with a Dunn K where he really looked bad and a Larue pop-up. Lopez gets his 4th hit in the 9th, but that’s all the boys got.

I’m not sure Freel is the long-term solution at 2B. He made a nice catch in the 1st on a pop-up but his grounder work is shaky. Some guys are smooth and some guys battle every ball. Freel battles. You could really see the enormous difference between the Furcal/Giles/A Jones troika up the middle vs. Lopez/Freel/Jr. A Reds grounder seemed to always find a Braves glove while the opposite seemed true for Braves’ grounders which always seemed to juuuuust slide by. The Braves up the middle defense is strong. Jones in CF made several nice plays while Jr. is a day late and a dollar short.

Kelly goes 1-3 but gets picked off after his hit. Runs out his hits hard and has speed. I keep thinking "Miley benched Dunn for *this*".

The guy sitting down the row was really on the Reds staff to nail someone after giving up 5 HRs. Both Andruw Jones and Kelly Johnson were swinging from the heels. Can’t blame them after seeing the melon balls the Reds staff was serving up. But I was kinda hoping a Red would nail a Brave with a pitch and start something. Anything. Just show a little life. The Braves with just teeing off with impunity. It was like watching the US Open.

But, a good time was had. Grandma enjoyed the game, the girls had fun, I explained the OF out of town scoreboard to Lizzy, and my money was not spent. Nice evening at the ball park, just rotten pitching by the Reds. And Milton goes tomorrow. Jeez.

[westofyou]

Thanks Roy... one month until I get to enjoy a schelacking at the GAB... good times.

[traderumor]

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d...506180388/1071

Milton starts tonight's game, and Ortiz probably will remain in the rotation as well.

"You've got to hope they figure it out," Reds manager Dave Miley said.

I didn't have any confidence in the Reds braintrust, but now it is restored

[RFS62]

"You've got to hope they figure it out," Reds manager Dave Miley said.

Problem is, Dave, that we've already figured it out.

[RFS62]

Great account Roy. And major props for saying "run and hit" instead of "hit and run"

[GAC]

I have developed one huge case of apathy for this team. I never thought, in my 40 years of watching the Reds (and some mediocre teams in that time) that I would ever loss it - but I have.

I have no desire to watch this team after the 3rd inning. They have drained me completely. I didn't think it could happen.

If I want to watch pitching to contact, then I go to my kid's games. At least they understand the concept better.

And not that firing Miley is gonna help this team/organization much; but the longer they hold on to this guy, the more I see that this FO hasn't got a clue at all as to what to do.

My kids want to go to a game, and I'm probably gonna try and do so before summer. But I haven't decided if it will be the Reds or Indians. I want them to see some facsimile of what baseball is -and right now, that is not found in Cincy. And since they are impresiionable and learning - I don't want them to pick up any bad habits.

[RedsBaron]

I have developed one huge case of apathy for this team. I never thought, in my 40 years of watching the Reds (and some mediocre teams in that time) that I would ever loss it - but I have.

I have no desire to watch this team after the 3rd inning. They have drained me completely. I didn't think it could happen.

If I want to watch pitching to contact, then I go to my kid's games. At least they understand the concept better.

And not that firing Miley is gonna help this team/organization much; but the longer they hold on to this guy, the more I see that this FO hasn't got a clue at all as to what to do.

My kids want to go to a game, and I'm probably gonna try and do so before summer. But I haven't decided if it will be the Reds or Indians. I want them to see some facsimile of what baseball is -and right now, that is not found in Cincy. And since they are impresiionable and learning - I don't want them to pick up any bad habits.

The coaches of my 12 year old's Little League team plan to take the kids to a baseball game in a few weeks-a minor league game in Charleston, WV. We can't risk them picking up bad habits by watching the Reds.
The Reds have more problems than I can count, and no, firing Dave Miley won't solve everything or even most things---but I will be so glad when Miley is fired. I didn't believe that the Reds could find a worse manager than Bob Boone, but they did. Now I refuse to believe they can find a worse manager than Miley, but I should never underestimate the incompetence of Reds management.

[MWM]

Am I missing something here. Looking the correlation chart Raisor posted, it looks to be a slight positive correlation, meaning that more strikeouts led to more runs. Now the correlation factor is so small it really means nothing, but if it leans any direction, it's not towards more strikeouts leading to less runs.

[RFS62]

Is it possible that teams with players who strike out a lot are allowing those players to play because of the other things they do well, like Dunn?

If you look at career strikeout leaders you'll see some pretty impressive names.

But if you're a BA driven contact hitter, strikeouts are more detrimental to your game.

[ochre]

Is it possible that teams with players who strike out a lot are allowing those players to play because of the other things they do well, like Dunn?

If you look at career strikeout leaders you'll see some pretty impressive names.

But if you're a BA driven contact hitter, strikeouts are more detrimental to your game.

I think that is what it is. The SOs are a side effect of the behavior that allows some players to generate a lot offense. That would be mostly the slugging, as I think a good portion of the residual OBP effect is pitcher's fear of the SLG numbers (see: Bonds, Barry for an extreme example).

[KronoRed]

Thanks Roy..good write up

[M2]

But if you're a BA driven contact hitter, strikeouts are more detrimental to your game.

Agreed. If you see Sean Casey suddenly racking up the whiffs, that's trouble, just like it would be if Adam Dunn was hitting a lot of slow rollers.

[Team Clark]

Dunn strikes out alot because he's a bad person and plays too much playstation. I think he wouldn't strike out as much if he tereated dogs better instead of kicking them and if he played x-bocx instead of playstation because I think Xboxes has better games.

You would think with as much time as Adam spends playing PS2 MLB he'd pick up a thing or two.

We've already moved onto Fight Night Round 2. You can make your own Apollo Creed and Clubber Lang.

[rdiersin]

Is it possible that teams with players who strike out a lot are allowing those players to play because of the other things they do well, like Dunn?

If you look at career strikeout leaders you'll see some pretty impressive names.

But if you're a BA driven contact hitter, strikeouts are more detrimental to your game.

I think the important part is that their is somewhat a correlation to ISO and Strikeouts. So, if a team has a higher ISO, the more likely it is to strikeout. The ISO correlates with the runs scored. Its not really saying that strikeouts are good, but rather that they are not bad. Also, if you are a contact hitter with low power, high strikeout totals more than likely aren't tolerated and you won't be playing. So its hard to say anything about the value of strikeouts.