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Thread: I hate to say it, but it's time for Dunn to go.

  1. #61
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    Re: I hate to say it, but it's time for Dunn to go.

    Quote Originally Posted by ochre
    2002 Yankees: 1171 SO (leads the AL; 3rd most in the Majors), 897 R (most in the majors), Lost to Anaheim in their ALDS

    2004 Red Sox: 1189 SO (leads the AL; 3rd most in the Majors), 949 R (most in the majors), World Series champions.

    Strikeouts are just another out for the offense. In fact the approach(es) that lead hitters to more strikeouts probably increase the peripheral statistics that allow for more runs to be scored overall.



    I've seen this comparison used several times on this message board, but I think these statistics are misleading. You are looking at those statistics in a vacuum. While the Yankees and Red Sox no doubt relied on their offense to be successful, don't you think the fact that they also had great pitching was a larger factor in the success of their teams?

    The Red Sox and Yankees featured guys like Pedro, Schilling, Clemens, Mariano Rivera, Foulke, and Mussina. They won championships because of their pitching.

    The Reds score a lot of runs, but their offense is fairly inconsistent. Combine that fact with their poor pitching, and they have a recipe for losing a lot of ball games. While the Red Sox and Yankees scored a lot of runs during those years, they likely were inconsistent as well. However, unlike the Reds, they had the pitching to win those 2-1 and 4-2 games that you need to win to be successful.

    The Reds are in dire need of pitching. While it would be nice to sign Dunn to a long-term contract and make him a part of the Reds future, it's not likely to happen and not the biggest need on this team. This team needs to shop Dunn for a couple of young stud pitching prospects, and try to build this team around young pitching. If the Reds sign Dunn to a long-term deal, nothing will change. They will still have lousy pitching and still lose a ton of ball games.

    It's time to move in a different direction, and Dunn is the biggest bargaining chip that we have to move in that direction. Even without Dunn, this lineup will still be fairly potent in the next few years with Wily Mo Pena, Kearns, Lopez, Griffey, and Edwin Encarnacion.

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  3. #62
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: I hate to say it, but it's time for Dunn to go.

    If we can trade Casey instead for a young pitching prospect then we will be able to also use about 8.5M in the FA market. I prefer that scenario since Dunn is way better than Casey and he is younger. Obviously if we could get a Peavy for Dunn then I would be inclined to go for that.

  4. #63
    "Let's Roll" TeamBoone's Avatar
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    Re: I hate to say it, but it's time for Dunn to go.

    Quote Originally Posted by riddelde
    This team needs to shop Dunn for a couple of young stud pitching prospects, and try to build this team around young pitching. If the Reds sign Dunn to a long-term deal, nothing will change. They will still have lousy pitching and still lose a ton of ball games.
    Adam Dunn is worth more than a couple young stud pitching prospects! That aside, what's to guarantee that these prospects will pan out? Absolutely nada! And as we've seen over the last several years, nada is more likely than yada! (yeah, I need to brush up on my Spanish but you get my drift)

    And then, per the usual, they've gotten rid of a power hitting stud and gotten absolutely NOTHING to show for it.

    If you want prospects, please trade someone with less talent than Adam Dunn... and there are a few on this team that should bring you those studly prospects that you crave. But Adam Dunn is worth more than that.
    "Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn

  5. #64
    Member ochre's Avatar
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    Re: I hate to say it, but it's time for Dunn to go.

    Quote Originally Posted by riddelde
    I've seen this comparison used several times on this message board, but I think these statistics are misleading. You are looking at those statistics in a vacuum. While the Yankees and Red Sox no doubt relied on their offense to be successful, don't you think the fact that they also had great pitching was a larger factor in the success of their teams?

    The Red Sox and Yankees featured guys like Pedro, Schilling, Clemens, Mariano Rivera, Foulke, and Mussina. They won championships because of their pitching.

    The Reds score a lot of runs, but their offense is fairly inconsistent. Combine that fact with their poor pitching, and they have a recipe for losing a lot of ball games. While the Red Sox and Yankees scored a lot of runs during those years, they likely were inconsistent as well. However, unlike the Reds, they had the pitching to win those 2-1 and 4-2 games that you need to win to be successful.

    The Reds are in dire need of pitching. While it would be nice to sign Dunn to a long-term contract and make him a part of the Reds future, it's not likely to happen and not the biggest need on this team. This team needs to shop Dunn for a couple of young stud pitching prospects, and try to build this team around young pitching. If the Reds sign Dunn to a long-term deal, nothing will change. They will still have lousy pitching and still lose a ton of ball games.

    It's time to move in a different direction, and Dunn is the biggest bargaining chip that we have to move in that direction. Even without Dunn, this lineup will still be fairly potent in the next few years with Wily Mo Pena, Kearns, Lopez, Griffey, and Edwin Encarnacion.
    You forgot to include the quote that I was responding to, which implied that teams that strikeout don't have good offenses and don't win games.

    Why gut the "good part" of the team to take a remote, long-shot chance on the abysmal part? How about making intelligent decisions to bring in players that have a chance at marginally improving the weak part? Milton, Ortiz, and Wilson are not that. Yet the same guy(s) that brought those three in are going to move Dunn for a couple of "can't miss prospects"?
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    Re: I hate to say it, but it's time for Dunn to go.

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns
    If we can trade Casey instead for a young pitching prospect then we will be able to also use about 8.5M in the FA market. I prefer that scenario since Dunn is way better than Casey and he is younger. Obviously if we could get a Peavy for Dunn then I would be inclined to go for that.
    Believe me, if the Reds could move Casey and get some potential building blocks in the pitching staff for him, I would be jumping for joy and packing Casey's bags.

    With that said, it's just not going to happen. Other teams are not going to give you top prospects for a slow, pricey first baseman. The only incentive to moving Casey at this point is to get his salary off the books, but I don't see the Reds using that available money in free agency. Let's be honest, this payroll is going to be reduced next year due to revenue decreases from lower attendance figures.

    If the Reds move Casey, they likely will get little for him and probably won't use the extra cash to make any significant additions in free agency. Not that I would trust the front office to make those signings anyway.

    Dunn is the best player on the Reds and the biggest bargaining chip we have. Pitching wins championships, and that's why I think the Reds need to use Dunn to bring in a haul of top prospects. Other organizations have built themselves through trades, and I would like to see the Reds take this path as well.

    As far as getting a top major league pitcher for Dunn, I'm not buying it. You think the Padres are going to give up Peavy for Dunn? No way. You don't trade ace pitching for outfielders. I think that alone shows how important pitching is, and why the Reds need to move in that direction.

    I don't trust the front office to make this trade either, so I guess it might be prudent to wait until a competent staff is in place before making this type of move. If the right GM can come in here and move Dunn for the right pitching prospects, I think the Reds could set themselves up with a nice young pitching staff to go with Pena, Lopez, Griffey, Encarnacion, and Kearns.

  7. #66
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: I hate to say it, but it's time for Dunn to go.

    Quote Originally Posted by riddelde
    As far as getting a top major league pitcher for Dunn, I'm not buying it. You think the Padres are going to give up Peavy for Dunn? No way. You don't trade ace pitching for outfielders. I think that alone shows how important pitching is, and why the Reds need to move in that direction.
    Which is why you don't trade Dunn. Unless we get a Peavy for him then any trade with Dunn will likely hinder us instead of making us better. I never said that trade would be at all realistic, but if Itrade Dunn I don't think I give up anything less than a top tier pitcher.

    As for Casey. I think a team like Boston may become desperate and give up one of their better prospects for Casey. If we are simply able to move his salary I wont complain. He is easily replaceable by inserting Kearns in the line-up. I also think the Reds would use the available money since they showed they would in the off-season (though obviously the money spent didn't help)

  8. #67
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    Re: I hate to say it, but it's time for Dunn to go.

    Quote Originally Posted by riddelde

    I don't trust the front office to make this trade either, so I guess it might be prudent to wait until a competent staff is in place before making this type of move. If the right GM can come in here and move Dunn for the right pitching prospects, I think the Reds could set themselves up with a nice young pitching staff to go with Pena, Lopez, Griffey, Encarnacion, and Kearns.
    That is the crux of the situation. Competent management is out there trying to fleece the Reds for the Dunn's of the world. Competent management wouldn't have to trade a player like Dunn, because there would have been competent pitching brought in instead of stiffs like Milton, Ortiz and Wilson. An effective management team would be striving to make Dunn and the other young talent realize they are the future, that this is their team. Instead they seem more concerned with validating their own incompetence by running the same people out there to fail because they are "their" guys. This whole sitution is turned up on its head. The fact that the owner vetoed his COO's decision on who to hire as the GM is really the only "fact" that needs considered when evaluating the effectiveness of the Reds "leadership".

    woohoo. I ranted
    Last edited by ochre; 06-18-2005 at 04:10 PM.
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  9. #68
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    Re: I hate to say it, but it's time for Dunn to go.

    prospects for dunn =

  10. #69
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    Re: I hate to say it, but it's time for Dunn to go.

    For all those threatening to no longer be Reds fans, can I inherit their reputation points?

    - From a baseball and Reds fan for life.

  11. #70
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    Re: I hate to say it, but it's time for Dunn to go.

    Dunn may as well be our leadoff hitter. Good OBP. We have Felipe, Randa, and Jr to drive him in. All have more RBIs than Dunn.

    The problem with this thread and the board really, is you all won't admit Dunn is an average player. Maybe someday he will blossom into the star we all thought he would be, but he sure hasn't yet.

    If we could get a good ML pitcher or a couple good P prospects, I'd do it.

  12. #71
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: I hate to say it, but it's time for Dunn to go.

    The problem with this thread and the board really, is you all won't admit Dunn is an average player. Maybe someday he will blossom into the star we all thought he would be, but he sure hasn't yet.


    Career .249/.384/.518-.902

    On his way to his second straight .950+ OPS season. If that is average, then give me about 7 more "average" players.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  13. #72
    Member ochre's Avatar
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    Re: I hate to say it, but it's time for Dunn to go.

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine


    Career .249/.384/.518-.902

    On his way to his second straight .950+ OPS season. If that is average, then give me about 7 more "average" players.
    easy with the facts there OBM. You might pull something .
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  14. #73
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    Re: I hate to say it, but it's time for Dunn to go.

    Quote Originally Posted by Riverfront
    Dunn may as well be our leadoff hitter. Good OBP. We have Felipe, Randa, and Jr to drive him in. All have more RBIs than Dunn.

    The problem with this thread and the board really, is you all won't admit Dunn is an average player. Maybe someday he will blossom into the star we all thought he would be, but he sure hasn't yet.

    If we could get a good ML pitcher or a couple good P prospects, I'd do it.
    if dunn is average, what does that make jr. and randa? considering dunn is having a better season than either one.

  15. #74
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    Re: I hate to say it, but it's time for Dunn to go.

    Quote Originally Posted by Riverfront

    The problem with this thread and the board really, is you all won't admit Dunn is an average player. Maybe someday he will blossom into the star we all thought he would be, but he sure hasn't yet.

    If we could get a good ML pitcher or a couple good P prospects, I'd do it.
    Nah... the real problem is holding onto some so tightly (batting average and team dependant stats) that you don't see what you have.

    Best 13 players under the age of 25 sorted by OPS since 1980

    Code:
    OPS                             OPS    
    1    Albert Pujols             1.037   
    2    Frank Thomas              1.002   
    3    Vladimir Guerrero          .965   
    4    Alex Rodriguez             .949   
    5    Manny Ramirez              .940   
    6    Jim Thome                  .934   
    7    Nomar Garciaparra          .933   
    8    Ken Griffey Jr.            .915   
    9    Fred McGriff               .915   
    10   Don Mattingly              .914   
    11   Will Clark                 .905   
    12   Mike Greenwell             .902   
    13   Adam Dunn                  .893
    Yeah I just didn't realize he was such a disappointment.

    Thanks for pointing that out to me.

  16. #75
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: I hate to say it, but it's time for Dunn to go.

    Quote Originally Posted by ochre
    easy with the facts there OBM. You might pull something .


    Its a waste of time really. He'll fire back that he k's too much or doesn't hit for high enough average.
    I miss Adam Dunn.


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