Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 8 12345 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 107

Thread: Dunn Deal Doesn't Add Up -Cincinnati Post 7/4

  1. #1
    Member Jpup's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Southern KY
    Posts
    6,967

    Dunn Deal Doesn't Add Up -Cincinnati Post 7/4

    At this point, Dunn deal doesn't add up

    Column by The Post's Lonnie Wheeler

    A lot of the Reds' hardest decisions revolve around Adam Dunn, and we're not talking about where to put the big guy in the batting order.

    On second thought, maybe we will talk about that for a moment, because Jerry Narron seems to have a swell idea. Dunn was batting second Sunday for the second time in days - sandwiched around a seventh and a fourth - in spite of his 21 homers and 275 pounds. The jocular Texan is not your prototypical sacrifice bunter - it took him a couple years of hard swinging to produce a sacrifice fly - but he is brimming with that hot sabermetric commodity, get-on-baseness, which is particularly useful for the top of the order.

    The man walks a lot, partly because he's picky for a guy who will eat anything, and partly because pitchers tend to steer clear of 500-foot strikes if they can. Plus, the person Dunn drives in the most is his big ol' country self, in which case you may as well move him up in the order for another whack at Mehring Way.

    "I've been thinking about it for a long while, really," said Narron, the interim manager. "Dunn gets on base."

    There's a fair chance, of course, that the bases on balls will taper off for the long-hitting Longhorn, what with Ken Griffey Jr. and Sean Casey batting behind him; but that, in turn, could extrapolate to more home runs. If this move turns out to be a win-win, that's already more wins than the Reds usually see in a week.

    For a refreshingly normal major-leaguer, meanwhile, Dunn is a most peculiar ballplayer. He reaches base in spite of a low batting average. He's a power hitter who leaves runners in scoring position. He's a strikeout prodigy that teams don't want to pitch to.

    He's also 25 and on pace for nearly 90 homers over two years; for a career rate of almost 40 a season. He's eminently durable, which should not be underestimated on Team Disabled List. And he, you know, walks.

    OK, the man is no Tris Speaker in the outfield (although, equipped with major-league wit, he is a pretty good Extemporaneous Speaker). A lot of folks think his natural place is first base, where he acquits himself adequately but Casey holds forth. And so, as it goes, the question often comes down to those two.

    Whom do you trade?

    There is no window of winning streak, no breakout of bats, no punch-up of pitching that can save the Reds from being sellers at the trading deadline four weeks from now. Their payroll is poorly spent, which means that it will be significantly reduced as soon as the opportunity presents itself. Dan O'Brien, the general manager, has tiptoed through the obvious and double-talked his way to that very deduction.

    This brings us to the commodities market that is the Cincinnati clubhouse. Among the irregularities concerning young Dunn is that, having avoided arbitration last year to the jingling of $4.6 million, he stands to make a heck of a lot more from it after this season is over. He'll make, in effect, Casey money.

    The Reds can afford both of them, but will probably lead us to believe that they can't. Of the two, Dunn - six years Casey's junior - is more likely to fetch the kind of pitcher the Reds can no longer do without. Nobody else in O'Brien's portfolio offers the exchange value of his left fielder.

    But if you trade Dunn in the midst of a youth movement - and there have been rumbles to that effect - how do you explain it to the paying customers? Short of Albert Pujols, who in the game is a more productive hitter at his age?

    All of this assumes that the Yankees or Braves or some other well-heeled contender will not be tempted by Griffey's steady march toward his illustrious past. All of it assumes that the Cincinnati landscape will remain overgrown with executive complications - that Carl Lindner isn't traded for an owner who will hire a COO who won't send his general manager to the plate with his shoes tied together.

    In the meantime, color Joe Randa gone but don't count on an ace in return; or even a pair of fives. Hope that Austin Kearns is not redeemed at well below market value. Ponder Wily Mo Pena.

    Pena is two years younger than Dunn, with every bit the power; nobody in the business has more. He makes $440,000 but after the season will be eligible for first-time arbitration, which will be kind to him. His tools elicit drools. For those reasons, the Reds could perhaps justify retaining him instead of his left-handed counterpart - if, that is, they place no value on two specific items:

    If they don't care about a player's capacity for staying in the lineup day after day.

    If they don't care about how it all looks.

    To trade Dunn would be to cash in whatever good faith remains in the organization; to sell out the few fans whose extraordinary patience has kept them coming to the park.

    To trade Dunn would be to perpetuate a rebuilding process that never gets beyond the subfloor.

    To trade Casey would be hard. To trade Pena would be hard.

    To trade Dunn would be regrettable.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member Jpup's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Southern KY
    Posts
    6,967

    Re: Dunn Deal Doesn't Add Up -Cincinnati Post 7/4

    Now that was a good article.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  4. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    Posts
    1,579

    Re: Dunn Deal Doesn't Add Up -Cincinnati Post 7/4

    great article....I hope they hang onto dunn and i have some faith that they will.

  5. #4
    Baseball card addict MrCinatit's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Piqua
    Posts
    4,429

    Re: Dunn Deal Doesn't Add Up -Cincinnati Post 7/4

    excellent article. i should hope they hold onto Dunn and Pena, myself.

  6. #5
    Member Maldez's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Posts
    344

    Re: Dunn Deal Doesn't Add Up -Cincinnati Post 7/4

    <<..To trade Dunn would be to cash in whatever good faith remains in the organization; to sell out the few fans whose extraordinary patience has kept them coming to the park.

    To trade Dunn would be to perpetuate a rebuilding process that never gets beyond the subfloor...>>

    Glad to see somebody in the media giving voice to what I hope most of us fans are feeling. Trading Adam Dunn could very well lead to a fan mutiny.

  7. #6
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    Posts
    7,480

    Re: Dunn Deal Doesn't Add Up -Cincinnati Post 7/4

    Wow. Lonnie Wheeler almost seems to be the lone voice of reason in the Cincinnati media.

    Good article. A writer that knows the word sabermetrics, and actually uses it in a body of work. Who'da thunk it?
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

  8. #7
    "A Rose by Any Other. . " RedRoser's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Knoxville, TN
    Posts
    3,298

    Re: Dunn Deal Doesn't Add Up -Cincinnati Post 7/4

    Best Reds read in quite a while!

    ---'Roser

  9. #8
    Moderator Gallen5862's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Wilmington,NC
    Posts
    6,389

    Re: Dunn Deal Doesn't Add Up -Cincinnati Post 7/4

    Great article.

  10. #9
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Springfield, Ohio
    Posts
    9,052

    Re: Dunn Deal Doesn't Add Up -Cincinnati Post 7/4

    Agreed 1000%!!! Pena is the Power source who really should be traded I think he should fetch what we need and although he could end up being the biggest mistake to deal (huge ceiling), I believe Dunn will prove to be the better long term player. This is all assuming Jr. and/or Casey can't be dealt for something palatable, which I doubt.

  11. #10
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,179

    Re: Dunn Deal Doesn't Add Up -Cincinnati Post 7/4

    Quote Originally Posted by WeberTime
    Agreed 1000%!!! Pena is the Power source who really should be traded I think he should fetch what we need and although he could end up being the biggest mistake to deal (huge ceiling), I believe Dunn will prove to be the better long term player. This is all assuming Jr. and/or Casey can't be dealt for something palatable, which I doubt.
    Just keep the following in mind.

    Pena is 23 years old. The next two years should be huge growth years for him. Remember how far Lopez came between the ages of 23 to 25. Do you really want to trade Pena now? I think he has only scratched the surface of his great ability.

    Dunn becomes a free agent after 2007. Is there any real chance he will stay? Will the Reds contend for the next two years while Dunn is still in Cincy?

    I'm not advocating a trade of either. But this article ignores key points.

  12. #11
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Centerville,OH
    Posts
    660

    Re: Dunn Deal Doesn't Add Up -Cincinnati Post 7/4

    great article, well written

  13. #12
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Posts
    20,901

    Re: Dunn Deal Doesn't Add Up -Cincinnati Post 7/4

    some great quotes in there that had me laughing

    If this move turns out to be a win-win, that's already more wins than the Reds usually see in a week.
    that Carl Lindner isn't traded for an owner who will hire a COO who won't send his general manager to the plate with his shoes tied together.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  14. #13
    Member icehole3's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Posts
    3,109

    Re: Dunn Deal Doesn't Add Up -Cincinnati Post 7/4

    Dunn Kingman strikes out way to much for me. He gets 8-10 mill a year next year and fans are going to aurgue next year about all of his deficiencies. Move him now instead of paying him all that cash. If he turns into Frank Robinson II, then it wont be the first and it wont be the last. He doesnt drive in runs for a slugger of his caliber Im sorry.

  15. #14
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    Posts
    1,579

    Re: Dunn Deal Doesn't Add Up -Cincinnati Post 7/4

    Dunn becomes a free agent after 2007. Is there any real chance he will stay? Will the Reds contend for the next two years while Dunn is still in Cincy
    ?


    if we offer him what he should be paid, he will stay i would bet.

  16. #15
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    34,844

    Re: Dunn Deal Doesn't Add Up -Cincinnati Post 7/4

    Quote Originally Posted by icehole3
    Dunn Kingman strikes out way to much for me. He gets 8-10 mill a year next year and fans are going to aurgue next year about all of his deficiencies. Move him now instead of paying him all that cash. If he turns into Frank Robinson II, then it wont be the first and it wont be the last. He doesnt drive in runs for a slugger of his caliber Im sorry.
    Dave Kingman-Career .236/.303/.476

    Adam Dunn-.248/.383/.518

    Dave Kingman never posted an OBP over .343. Adam Dunn has never got on base at less than a .354 clip.

    Around 300 of Dunn's 328 plate appearances have come with him batting 5th 6th or 7th. Dunn leads off an inning in what seems like every atbat. It's very difficult to drive in runs when he is being misutilized(burying him down in the order).
    Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 07-04-2005 at 11:36 AM.
    I miss Adam Dunn.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25