Don't say this too loudly, but I think Gully has also put on a few LB's since his first post....Originally Posted by Big Klu
He's slumping! He had 73 after 1 post!
Don't say this too loudly, but I think Gully has also put on a few LB's since his first post....He's slumping! He had 73 after 1 post!
It's Bob Boone's fault!!Don't say this too loudly, but I think Gully has also put on a few LB's since his first post....
Trade him for Drew Nelson & Richard Hand!!
I liken GABP to several other ballparks that sort of have this mirage of being a park vastly favoring one side compared to the other despite being relatively neutral in run scoring. It is a very favorable home run hitting ballpark, but like others have pointed out, the tiny gaps cut down on singles, doubles and triples so much that overall run scoring evens out. Still, since it gives up home runs by the buckets, people believe it's a paradise for offense and a fiery hell for pitchers.
One famous storied ballpark that seems to have been painted in a similar light is the Polo Grounds, most known for being the former home of the New York Giants before they moved to San Francisco. The Polo Grounds had a terribly short porch down the lines in both left field and right field. For much of its existence, the left field line was only approximately 280 feet deep while the right field line was a mere 257 feet deep. Think about that for a second, both lines not only below 300 feet, but well below 300 feet, with the right field fence less than 260 feet away down the line. If anything could be described as a home run hitter's paradise, wouldn't that be it?
The dimensions down the lines, however, didn't paint the full picture, and the rest of the picture is as ugly to hitters as the lines are pretty. Of all the parks we've seen still in use in recent years, Tiger Stadium's 440 foot dimensions in center field probably comes to mind as one of the harshest. With the exception of a handful of seasons with a center field fence 430 feet away, the Polo Grounds dimensions in center sometimes reached 500 feet and generally hung around in the 480-505 distance. The gaps weren't pretty, either. We're not talking maybe 380 foot gaps like we see today, but moreso well over 400 feet away, and reaching as deep as 440 feet.
If Jose Guillen and Vinny Castilla played in the Polo Grounds instead of RFK, imagine how loud their gripes would be.
Vastly short down the lines, yet vastly deep in the gaps and out to center, what were the overall park factors, you ask? Relatively neutral. One interesting snapshot of that stadium is to analyze the career of Mel Ott, one of the greatest outfielders in major league history, and one of the game's early premier home run hitting sluggers. In Ott's first two seasons, during which he played a combined 117 games, he hit one lone home run, and it was at home. Giants manager John McGraw had always longed for a dead pull hitter to take advantage of the short porches, and Ott being a dead pull left-handed slugger was McGraw's man. Aided by his high leg kick in the batter's box, Ott honed his swing to take advantage of the porch to meet McGraw's wishes. In Ott's second full season in 1929, he broke out with 42 long balls and was well on his way to the 511 home runs he hit in his career.
Ott's career home/road HR splits? Merely 323 at home and 188 on the road. Some historians mistakingly attribute Ott's high overall production levels to his home park, but IMO that's a gross miscalculation. The park played relatively neutral for his whole career - every season from 1929-1937 it actually played as a pitcher's park - and while he may have had several cheap home runs at home, he lost quite a bit of production at home through doubles and singles due to the odd dimensions. Not only that, but Ott did manage to lead the National League in road home runs five seasons proving he wasn't a slouch away from home, either.
That said, it's just another example that while a ballpark may giveth the occasional cheap home run such as GABP or the Polo Grounds, it is also likely to taketh away an equal amount of production in the form of doubles and singles, or in the case of the Polo Grounds, deep drives to the gaps and center field.
The Lost Decade Average Season: 74-88
2014-22 Average Season: 71-91
I would imagine Wrigley being less of a launching pad has nothing to do with Wrigley but instead all the new parks which are. Reputation as a launching pad is relative to the other stadiums. With Coors in use people view others in comparison to it and the view of Wrigley declines. Unless of course the park factors are all over the place.I would agree, that this is a strange statement. As Garrett mentioned, it would be very interesting if there was a way to correlate weather trends with park factor... maybe there has been a change in winds, etc... or maybe he just misspoke... but there does seem to be a lot of variance in this stat. Unfortunately I am limited to stats that are free at the moment
(and then I see the free trial of Baseball prospectus this week... Thanks Westofyou for not letting me get anything done!)
Last edited by klw; 07-27-2005 at 05:36 PM.
After doing some research on the temporarily free website Baseball Prospectus, I found an article called "Whats That Park Like" and it basically agrees with you klw. Park Factor is relative to the other parks in the league... if everyone builds a "bandbox" then the old high home run parks become pitching friendly in comparison.
Here is a quote from the article (use link while you can):
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...?articleid=897
How can it be that park factors could be off by so much? The answer is limited sample size. A park factor for any given year is based on only 81 home games. In many seasons, some teams will play even fewer (due to non-rescheduled rain-outs and so on). Eighty or so games are not enough to eliminate a large error rate. A park with a park factor of 95 one year and 100 the next very likely cannot be said to be relatively easier to hit in the second year. Instead, it is fair to conclude that by random chance, there was a five percent differential in the two seasons (assuming that major changes did not occur with other home parks in the league).
Over 10 or 15 years, the error rate becomes much smaller as the sample size increases. Nonetheless, a 10-year sample is likely to be more accurate than a one-year accounting. Unfortunately, it is problematic to average out a park factor over more than a few years because the conditions of one or more of the ballparks in a league change. New stadiums are built, existing stadiums change their dimensions, and abnormal weather patterns have an impact.Nonetheless, a 10-year sample is likely to be more accurate than a one-year accounting.
Pretty interesting. And it looks like we might have to wait a couple of years to get a clear idea of how GAB is playing.
Last edited by GullyFoyle; 07-27-2005 at 09:39 PM.
Bonafide star.
This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.
Gully's gonna set a Redszone record for fastest to 200 if there is a thing. Guy's gotta win rookie of the year.
He is now up to 176 points. He is one of our top prospects.
He's 17 points away now.
So umm.....welcome to redszone.
The high roller suite has been booked for you tonight.
All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.
nine pts. to go. This is such a great topic - I've been wondering about this...
I'll donate some to the cause -
Guy's got a good point...and he didn't even call out the RZ 10 or Jim Coombs. He should get extra credit.
The question is - will he be rushed too quickly a la David Clyde & Ryan Wagner - or will he turn out to have a good career like Tom Seaver did ...
One can only find out.
Some people play baseball. Baseball plays Jay Bruce.
Nah, Clyde was an overhyped media creation. This guy looks like the real deal.
We'll go down in history as the first society that wouldn't save itself because it wasn't cost effective ~ Kurt Vonnegut
Gully is at 194. Who will get him to 200? He is one of our top Prospects.
I remember I jumped up to 200 exceptionally quick, but it wasn't all in one day, I know that ...
The Lost Decade Average Season: 74-88
2014-22 Average Season: 71-91
Posting Permissions
|
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |
