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Thread: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

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    Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    So going into tonite's game the Nationals had given up one more run than they had scored. However their W/L record is 50-32. Raisor? Say it ain't so? What about the Pyth Thm of BBall? Does this mean there is such a thing as timely hitting and timely run scoring? What about strikeouts? Does this mean a strikeout is NOT just another out? Oh Raisor....please.... say it ain't so !!

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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by BadFundamentals
    So going into tonite's game the Nationals had given up one more run than they had scored. However their W/L record is 50-32. Raisor? Say it ain't so? What about the Pyth Thm of BBall? Does this mean there is such a thing as timely hitting and timely run scoring? What about strikeouts? Does this mean a strikeout is NOT just another out? Oh Raisor....please.... say it ain't so !!
    This will be a funny thread when it is brought back up in about a month.

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    smells of rich mahogany deltachi8's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by rdiersin
    This will be a funny thread when it is brought back up in about a month.
    looks like it didnt take a month to be funny...
    Nothing to see here. Please disperse.

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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Those one run games will catch up to them. They still have a chance to make a splash now with a trade or 2 and really improve their team. Was it last year or 2 years ago about the middle of June the Reds were in first place maybe 5 games or so above .500, but had given up more runs than they had scored. It caught up with them and more than likely it'll catch up with the Nats, but they have a chance to improve.

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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by 2001MUgrad
    Those one run games will catch up to them. They still have a chance to make a splash now with a trade or 2 and really improve their team. Was it last year or 2 years ago about the middle of June the Reds were in first place maybe 5 games or so above .500, but had given up more runs than they had scored. It caught up with them and more than likely it'll catch up with the Nats, but they have a chance to improve.
    They just showed a quote from JimmyB that they were prepared to make any deals that would help their team make playoffs. I think they will. They flashed to Jimmy up in the press box and he was standing/pacing watching every play. It occurred to me I've watched just about every game televised this year on Extra Innings and I haven't once seen DannyO at a game....(???)......

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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by BadFundamentals
    They just showed a quote from JimmyB that they were prepared to make any deals that would help their team make playoffs. I think they will. They flashed to Jimmy up in the press box and he was standing/pacing watching every play. It occurred to me I've watched just about every game televised this year on Extra Innings and I haven't once seen DannyO at a game....(???)......
    I hope they do. I like Jimbo. But, also isn't that good for the REDS if the Nats do good since they own a share of the team right now?? If the Nats were to go to the playoffs or even better it should increase the $$ they could get for it.

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    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by 2001MUgrad
    Those one run games will catch up to them. They still have a chance to make a splash now with a trade or 2 and really improve their team. Was it last year or 2 years ago about the middle of June the Reds were in first place maybe 5 games or so above .500, but had given up more runs than they had scored. It caught up with them and more than likely it'll catch up with the Nats, but they have a chance to improve.
    But the Nats have far, far better pitching than the Reds did. Hernandez is a legitimate ace, and Loaiza's worth every cent as well.

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    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis
    But the Nats have far, far better pitching than the Reds did. Hernandez is a legitimate ace, and Loaiza's worth every cent as well.
    The staff really helps them if a slump occurs on the hitting side... especially playing in that pitchers park. A good pitching park that reduces runs enables them to weather the streakiness their contact first team will be encumbered with (eventually) better than being in a hitters park.

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    Member forfreelin04's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    No it can't be true!!!! Situational hitting does exist? Strikeouts do matter? Blasephemy BadFundamentals! How dare you remember how the game is played instead of checking your stat sheet first?

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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Look at the Reds 2004, KC 2003. It will catch up with them, unless they make changes. The Pythag is very accurate when taken over the whole season.

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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by rdiersin
    Look at the Reds 2004, KC 2003. It will catch up with them, unless they make changes. The Pythag is very accurate when taken over the whole season.
    Yes, I remember all too well the Reds 2004 and in fact 2003 as well. Of course with the Reds at the critical times in June when they needed to acquire some arms they sat pat. Jimmy will make some moves.

    Meanwhile Guillen takes outside letter high pitch from pedro and lines it to right to drive in 2 (a middle of the order hitter "going with the pitch"?? do you believe it?) and put Nats up 3-0. Guillen 3-3 on the night. Yes, Jose Guillen, Cincinnati Reds 2003.

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    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=4192

    July 5, 2005
    Can Of Corn
    Pythag and the Nats

    At the exact midpoint of the current season, the profoundly surprising Washington Nationals held a five-and-a-half game lead in the NL East and were on pace for an even 100 wins. As surprising and impressive as that might be, the real oddity about this team is that, if trends hold, they'll win 100 games and a division title despite a run differential of -2. Calling such a confluence of events "historically unprecedented" would be to indulge in understatement of criminal proportions.

    Since 1900, 90 teams have won at least 100 games in a season. Those 90 teams had an average run differential of +214.9. The worst run differential by a 100-win team belongs to the 2004 Yankees, who finished with a +89 mark. Only two other teams, the '69 Mets and '70 Reds, have posted run differentials of worse than +100 while still winning 100 games for the season. If the Nats were able to reach the century mark in victories while burdened by a negative run differential it would be, suffice it to say, stretching the depth and breadth of improbability.

    The Nats are certainly overperforming to date, but it's a bit facile to say their success is merely the product of good fortune. In fact, there's some evidence to suggest that the team's meager run differential isn't indicative of its genuine, long-term quality. To wit, Washington has a strong and properly deployed bullpen, and they've been exceptional at home. Let's take these one at a time

    Much has been made of the fact that the Nationals have been outstanding this year in one-run games (22-7 on the season). In many analytical circles, success or failure under such circumstances is often dismissed as a matter of luck. However, if a team makes a habit of giving high-leverage innings to its best relievers (and, by extension, low-leverage outings to its worst relievers), they can thrive in one-run contests and, hence, exceed the various Pythagorean-inspired projections. In D.C.'s case, their four top relievers all rank in the top 50 for Relievers' Expected Wins Added (REWA). Also, those four relievers--Chad Cordero, Luis Ayala, Hector Carrasco and Gary Majewski--have worked almost two-thirds of the team's total bullpen innings. Now here's how they fare in terms of leverage:


    Code:
    Pitcher        IP       R/G   REWA Rank   Leverage (Rank on Team)*
    Cordero       44.1     1.62      1             1.97 (1)
    Ayala         48.0     3.38     13             1.49 (2)
    Carrasco      29.0     1.86     37             1.22 (3)
    Majewski      35.1     3.57     49             1.15 (4)
    * - Among Washington relievers with at least 20 IP

    As you can see, manager Frank Robinson is deploying his relievers in exact accordance with their REWA rank--that's to say, the best relievers are working the most critical innings. That they've also thrived in nip-and-tuck affairs is no accident. When you have four relievers the quality of those above and you're using them in critical situations, you're going to have a strong record in one-run games.

    There's also the matter of the club's success in home games. At the halfway point, the Nats' record at RFK was 29-10, which comes to a winning percentage of .744. That puts them on pace for 60 home wins this season, which would mean this year's Nats model would tie the eighth-best single-season home-win total of all-time. Here's the full list:


    Rank Team Home Wins
    1. '61 Yankees 65
    2. '75 Reds 64
    3. '32 Yankees 62
    3. '98 Yankees 62
    5. '46 Red Sox 61
    5. '49 Red Sox 61
    5. '62 Giants 61
    8. '31 A's 60
    8. '42 Cardinals 60
    8. '53 Dodgers 60
    8. '69 Orioles 60
    8. '77 Phillies 60

    Of the 12 teams listed, nine exceeded their Pythagorean records for the season, and they bettered those forecasts by a cumulative 47 games. All of this has at least some bearing on the Nationals' troubling run differential. Of Washington's 29 home wins in 2005, only two have come in extra innings or in walk-off fashion. That means in 27 games this season, the Nats haven't batted in the ninth inning. In other words, that's 81 outs they didn't get to use. Teams that are especially potent at home sometimes fall short of their expected records because they don't have as many opportunities to score runs. That's borne out in Washington's underwhelming Pythagorean record.

    The Nats have certainly benefited from good fortune this season, but their run differential can partially be explained by some of the team's unique qualities. They have a strong bullpen that's properly deployed, and they excel at home. They're over-performing, to be sure. However, the extreme second-half regression you might expect based on their run differential probably won't come to pass. Summarily speaking, the Nats are worse than their record but much better than their run differential.

    As for how the NL East will play out, it's far from decided. In the second half, the Braves will get back from the DL 60% of their Opening Day rotation and Chipper Jones. So it'll be an onerous task for the Nats to hold off the 13-time champs. However, if you're tempted to dismiss Washington because they've given up more runs than they've allowed, don't do it.

    Dayn Perry is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact Dayn by clicking here or click here to see Dayn's other articles.

  13. #13
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    They won't make any deals, the Nationals owner won't add payroll, it's the same stuff Jim Bo said when he was here..fluff fluff fluff.

    I do have a picture of Dan O at a game though
    Go Gators!

  14. #14
    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    I had no idea that Raisor invented the Pythag

    Who knew?
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
    ~ Mark Twain

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    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by RFS62
    I had no idea that Raisor invented the Pythag

    Who knew?

    I won one of my three Nobel Peace Prizes for my work on the Pythag thm of baseball.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."


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