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Thread: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

  1. #31
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by BadFundamentals
    So going into tonite's game the Nationals had given up one more run than they had scored. However their W/L record is 50-32. Raisor? Say it ain't so? What about the Pyth Thm of BBall? Does this mean there is such a thing as timely hitting and timely run scoring? What about strikeouts? Does this mean a strikeout is NOT just another out? Oh Raisor....please.... say it ain't so !!
    Only 3 teams in baseball history have won 100 games with less than +100 run differential. The Gnats are on pace to do it, it is unprecedented as +76 is the lowest run differential to win 100 games.

    Why are the Gnats so far ahead of their pythag record?

    Simple they are 22-7 in 1 run games. Why is that? Because Robby has used his bullpen perfectly. He has 4 very high quality relievers. They have pitched all the high leverage innings and the # of those innings distributed to the four goes in the order of their overall effectiveness.

    All coutesy of BP.

    http://baseballprospectus.com/articl...articleid=4192

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  3. #32
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Here's what I don't get, BF, you say that the Nats are winning because of timely hitting, which one would assume you mean with runners in scoring position, but that's not the case as I gave team stats with runners in scoring position in an earlier post in this thread. The Reds are in the middle of the pack in runs scored in RISP, while the Nats are in the bottom three in the NL. It shows more than anything the reason the Nats are doing alright isn't because of their hitting with RISP, but their pitching. Likewise the Reds woes aren't because of their hitting with RISP, but their pitching.

  4. #33
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    I will not sit here while you people introduce FACTS into this discussion.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  5. #34
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by pahster
    Whats wrong with runs created?
    I don't think I want to take on this battle in this forum but I'll give you long and short. I just plain don't like it when applied to a specific player. If applied to a team or game or season - fine. In those cases, you have a MIX of players which serves to even out the otherwise possible distortions (spots in batting order, player tendencies, relative values of bases...etc. etc....)

    Not to mention it is too complicated for practical use. And the fact that James continues to revise it - with later versions now including component for things like batting avg. with RISP, solo homers, strikeouts etc.....it just shows how earlier versions are flawed and demonstrates the perhaps impracticality of ever arriving at a truly "accurate" formula at PLAYER level.

  6. #35
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor
    I will not sit here while you people introduce FACTS into this discussion.
    Sorry.

  7. #36
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by BadFundamentals
    So going into tonite's game the Nationals had given up one more run than they had scored. However their W/L record is 50-32. Raisor? Say it ain't so? What about the Pyth Thm of BBall? Does this mean there is such a thing as timely hitting and timely run scoring? What about strikeouts? Does this mean a strikeout is NOT just another out? Oh Raisor....please.... say it ain't so !!
    Wow is this thread misguided...

    Washington Nationals 2005- Overall:

    5.02 AB/K- Fifth Highest K Rate in the National League

    Washington Nationals 2005- w/RISP:

    4.53 AB/K- Third Highest K Rate in the National League

    What's that? The Washington Nationals strike out MORE with RISP than they do overall??? How could that be??? They're spunky sparky situational killers I thought. It must be a mirage. I'll bet they're really good in even more remote situations like hitting with RISP and Two Outs then. Yeah. That's GOTTA be it.

    Washington Nationals- 2005- w/RISP: 2 Out:

    3.68 AB/K- Worst K Rate in the National League

    Alright. Something's wrong here. After all, the Nationals are spunky sparky situational killing machines who focus on making more contact in every single situation and even more the more "important" and "pressure-packed" the situation gets. At least, that's what we're hearing. And yet, we see a team that is one of the WORST contact-producing teams in the National League???? Say it ain't so!!!

    So it MUST be the Stolen Bases then. Of course. That HAS to be it. They're spunky and sparky and run all around the place. They're littleball central after all. They bob and weave and dart and swipe. They must. They're littleball personified after all, aren't they?

    Washington Nationals- 2005:

    Stolen Bases- 24 (Lowest total in the National League)
    Stolen Base %- 49%

    WHAT???? They have the fewest Stolen Bases in the National League too?? And they get caught more than half the time???? That's IMPOSSIBLE, isn't it? After all, they're spunky sparky contact-hitting blazing-fast littleball killah's who don't like Mike Scioscia. Sigh.

    Well, they bunt some but really not a great deal more than your next team. In those all-important Close-and-Late situations, only six NL teams have sacrificed fewer times even though the Nats have the 3rd more Close-and-Late PA. They step in front of pitches pretty good. But not considerably more than your next best team on the list. They don't hit any better situationally. Their RISP BA of .260 is exactly the same as their .260 overall BA and their RISP w 2 Out BA is .223.

    But then, their situational RISP OBP is 32 points above their overall numbers even if their SLG is lower with RISP.

    Waitaminit. You mean it's about not making OUTS??? AGAIN??? It's about On-Base Percentage? AGAIN???

    Well, not so much. It's really about pitching.

    Again.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  8. #37
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor
    I also invented the lava lamp.
    You invented that little bird that rocks back and forth up/down drinking water too?

    I love those. Dude you totally rock.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  9. #38
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by BadFundamentals
    You don't think Bowden can find a way to get approval for some deal making? I gotta think he finds a way.
    He'll tell the press he had tons of deals done and the mean owners said no.

    Same as he did here.
    Go Gators!

  10. #39
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed
    He'll tell the press he had tons of deals done and the mean owners said no.

    Same as he did here.
    Yep.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  11. #40
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Very weird that BF can't seem to see this post.




    Originally Posted by Raisor
    Let's see...

    30 major league teams.

    20 teams (66%) within 2 games of expected w/l record
    27 teams (90%) within 4 games of expected w/l record
    3 teams (10%) 5 or more games (+/-) away from expected w/l record.

    Even WITH the Nats (+9) and the Diamond Backs (+7), the average deviation is only +/-2.2 wins.

    I'll take that...
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  12. #41
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor
    Very weird that BF can't seem to see this post.
    Well, whatever you do- don't tell him that the Reds finished 9 games above their pythag last season then.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  13. #42
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Well, whatever you do- don't tell him that the Reds finished 9 games above their pythag last season then.
    which I believe was the best in baseball

  14. #43
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Well, whatever you do- don't tell him that the Reds finished 9 games above their pythag last season then.

    eek, sorry...I already did...
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  15. #44
    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor
    eek, sorry...I already did...


    mmmmmmmmmmm, doughnuts
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
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  16. #45
    Something clever pahster's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by BadFundamentals
    I don't think I want to take on this battle in this forum but I'll give you long and short. I just plain don't like it when applied to a specific player. If applied to a team or game or season - fine. In those cases, you have a MIX of players which serves to even out the otherwise possible distortions (spots in batting order, player tendencies, relative values of bases...etc. etc....)

    Not to mention it is too complicated for practical use. And the fact that James continues to revise it - with later versions now including component for things like batting avg. with RISP, solo homers, strikeouts etc.....it just shows how earlier versions are flawed and demonstrates the perhaps impracticality of ever arriving at a truly "accurate" formula at PLAYER level.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runs_cr...h_runs_created

    I guess I just don't see the problem with it. Sure, it continues to evolve, but as it does it only becomes more accurate.


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