Actually, the Yankees finished 12 games over.Originally Posted by flyer85
Actually, the Yankees finished 12 games over.Originally Posted by flyer85
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
well... how bout the NL then?Originally Posted by SteelSD
Yeah. I think that was the Reds.Originally Posted by flyer85
I have no idea if it holds true because I'd have to do a lot of research on the subject to effectively prove it, but I've always felt that teams who are able to best beat their pythag are teams who:
1. Have a combination of either Excellent Hitting/Mediocre Pitching or Mediocre Hitting/Excellent Pitching.
2. End up winning a very high percentage of their one-Run games regardless of method (i.e. "smallball" versus "powerball").
In short, I think beating the pythag is random, but teams that minimize the randomness allowing for more one-Run (or 2-Run maybe) situations over the course of a season are better off in respect to actually beating their pythag.
Again, just a theory.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
As noted in your link:Originally Posted by pahster
Accuracy
Runs created is believed to be an accurate measure of an individual's offensive contribution because, when used on whole teams, the formula normally closely approximates how many runs the team actually scores. Even the basic version of runs created usually predicts a team's run total within approximately 20 runs.2 Other, more advanced versions are even more accurate.
- - - - -- - - - - -
Just because it is accurate on "whole teams" doesn't mean you can take it down a level and apply it to players and expect it to sustain accuracy at PLAYER level. That is my problem with it. Some players it will overstate others it will understate. Those offset one another on team but not for individual player.
I'm fine with it at team, game etc.. etc.. level - groups of players but not applied to just one player. There are far too many variables at player level which can go addressed or not be adequately addressed.
Yes you can take it to the player level because the team Runs Created numbers are an amalgam of the players who put up the numbers for the team.Originally Posted by BadFundamentals
Yeesh.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
That pretty much sums up my thoughts on it.Originally Posted by SteelSD
Exactly.Originally Posted by SteelSD
Take Dunn's plate appearances that lead to his 60.5 Runs Created away and the Reds' team Runs Created would be exactly 60.5 RC lower.
You can take it to a player level BF. I understand your doubts for using it on team statistics and the jump to players, but Extrapolated runs (XR) is another similar stat that on a team stat basis gives similar correlation with Runs scored as RC does. Xr, or other types like Palmers I believe, is linear, so each players contribution adds to the teams Xr. So you might then say, well it doesn't work on a micro basis. But if you look at all of 2003 and 2004 games logs, you can see the Xr and similar stats perform fairly well with a correlation coefficient of around 0.85 or so to runs scored for each game in those seasons. So, in summary, it does measure player contribution, and does a heck of alot better than rbi's and the like.Originally Posted by BadFundamentals
Someone on this board a few years ago shared the theory that beating pythagorian projections was tied to bullpen ERA, especially back-end bullpen ERA. Something about the ability of your closer and your best set-up men to hold small leads and avoid turning 1-run wins into 1-run losses.In short, I think beating the pythag is random, but teams that minimize the randomness allowing for more one-Run (or 2-Run maybe) situations over the course of a season are better off in respect to actually beating their pythag.
Again, just a theory.
Of course, you could also end up with a Danny Graves who turns 3-run wins into 1-run wins. That also helps you beat pythagorian projections.
"I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful
Interesting, that was essentially the argument Dayn Perry made in the BP article WOY put earlier in the thread. It will be interesting to see how it plays out the rest of the year.Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
You're missing the most important skill, Steel. It's all about directing anger towards winning. That's something you just can't quantify.Originally Posted by SteelSD
Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David
Originally Posted by MWM
If the Reds were able to harness the anger of Reds fans there would be no stopping them!
Originally Posted by Raisor
If Reds fans anger was electricity, we could light up New York.
We'll go down in history as the first society that wouldn't save itself because it wasn't cost effective ~ Kurt Vonnegut
Mmmmmmmmmmm, the KRISPY 7.......Originally Posted by RFS62
Olmedo Saenz
Sandy Alomar Jr.
Aaron Miles
Tomas Perez
Todd Greene
John McDonald
Luis Matos
"I came here to kick ass and chew bubble gum... and I'm all out of bubble gum."
- - Rowdy Roddy Piper
"It takes a big man to admit when he is wrong. I am not a big man"
- - Fletch
Raisor, you will get rep points for this. I have to spread some wealth around first, but you will get some points for this.Originally Posted by Raisor
Hilarious.
'When I'm not longer rapping, I want to open up an ice cream parlor and call myself Scoop Dogg.'
-Snoop on his retirement
Your Mom is happy.
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