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Thread: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

  1. #61
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Leader
    Raisor, you will get rep points for this. I have to spread some wealth around first, but you will get some points for this.

    Hilarious.
    I also do weddings, parties, and Bar Mitzahs
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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  3. #62
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM
    You're missing the most important skill, Steel. It's all about directing anger towards winning. That's something you just can't quantify.
    Is that one of those little things?

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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Yeah. I think that was the Reds.

    I have no idea if it holds true because I'd have to do a lot of research on the subject to effectively prove it, but I've always felt that teams who are able to best beat their pythag are teams who:

    1. Have a combination of either Excellent Hitting/Mediocre Pitching or Mediocre Hitting/Excellent Pitching.
    2. End up winning a very high percentage of their one-Run games regardless of method (i.e. "smallball" versus "powerball").

    In short, I think beating the pythag is random, but teams that minimize the randomness allowing for more one-Run (or 2-Run maybe) situations over the course of a season are better off in respect to actually beating their pythag.

    Again, just a theory.
    My hypothesis is that it has a lot to do with HRs. HRs are an extremely efficient way of scoring runs, but they result in lumpy scoring patterns from game to game (i.e., they create an unusually wide standard deviation of runs scored or runs allowed per game). My hypothesis is that those teams that hit or surrender an unusual # of HRs (relatively speaking) tend not to adhere to the "rules" that govern everyone else.

    The Nats, like the 2004 Reds and 2004 Yankees, may be a good fit for this hypothesis. The Nats home ballpark may be a key driver--RFK scores a 0.550 (extremely low) on the ballpark factor for HRs allowed.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

    Finally, a well-deserved props to BP for critically looking at Washington's run differential. The lazy, Neyer-like approach would be to say they're doomed to "regress to the mean."

  5. #64
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by D-Man
    My hypothesis is that it has a lot to do with HRs. HRs are an extremely efficient way of scoring runs, but they result in lumpy scoring patterns from game to game (i.e., they create an unusually wide standard deviation of runs scored or runs allowed per game). My hypothesis is that those teams that hit or surrender an unusual # of HRs (relatively speaking) tend not to adhere to the "rules" that govern everyone else.

    The Nats, like the 2004 Reds and 2004 Yankees, may be a good fit for this hypothesis. The Nats home ballpark may be a key driver--RFK scores a 0.550 (extremely low) on the ballpark factor for HRs allowed.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

    Finally, a well-deserved props to BP for critically looking at Washington's run differential. The lazy, Neyer-like approach would be to say they're doomed to "regress to the mean."
    You might be onto something by looking at the HR component because HR allow teams to score quickly and end many games immediately. A team like the White Sox has the ability to score "easy" in that respect and I feel that's been overlooked by a dramatic portion of the baseball community.

    And you may also have a point with the HR Park Factor when combined with a shutdown pen. If the park suppresses the opposition's power, I would think that a team would have an easier time holding leads late when acquring them early.

    In any case, it's anecdotal at this point. There's a lot of randomness involved in it but it just may be that there are many circumstantial combinations that would allow for a team to beat the pythag during a season. Generally, "fundamental" or "situational" hitting is the first image that pops into one's head but I think that answer is, most of the time, a misperception and can never be the pat answer folks want to position it to be.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by rdiersin
    You can take it to a player level BF. I understand your doubts for using it on team statistics and the jump to players, but Extrapolated runs (XR) is another similar stat that on a team stat basis gives similar correlation with Runs scored as RC does. Xr, or other types like Palmers I believe, is linear, so each players contribution adds to the teams Xr. So you might then say, well it doesn't work on a micro basis. But if you look at all of 2003 and 2004 games logs, you can see the Xr and similar stats perform fairly well with a correlation coefficient of around 0.85 or so to runs scored for each game in those seasons. So, in summary, it does measure player contribution, and does a heck of alot better than rbi's and the like.
    A BB example:

    For a stat like RC to work at PLAYER level it would have to operate on the assumption that over time all BBs for all players on all teams are equal (similar for doubles, triples etc.) in regards to Run Scoring efforts.

    Example: In national league with pitchers hitting your ninth hole will be an out for first 5 innings what 85% of the time? Your 8th hole will be an out ~70-75% of time on average? You only get THREE outs an inning.

    I'm sure you know of that Tango table which gives run scoring percentages based on outs and runners on base. That table doesn't take into account quality of hitters.

    So right from the start it is easy to see at micro level why a BB to a top of the order hitter who has great speed is FAR more valuable to team run scoring efforts (and would be on high end of Tango table curve) than a BB to a 6 or 7 hitter who doesn't run very well. (and would be on low end of Tango table curve)

    If this was just one exception you might say insignificant but the FACT is these situational "tendencies" for lack of better word or "distortion possibilities" are present every time thru the lineup with every player in different ways. They all wash out for lineup as a whole but for a specific player you'll get same distortion potential over and over and over, every time thru lineup and every game.
    - - - - - - - - -

    So I guess my point is variance/margin of error would increase greatly at PLAYER level because of individual player and situational differences. Throw all players in a bucket fine. But just to grab ONE player out of bucket - he is likely to be overstated or understated and possibly in a predictable way.

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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    If batting order was established by throwing all names in hat and drawing them out 1-9 before every game that would help accuracy at PLAYER level.

    As is though, batting orders are designed with "optimal" run scoring opportunities/potential in mind. There is too much difference in quality/types of hitting top to bottom of order and within confines of a 3 out inning to think batting order can just be dismissed as insignificant.

    (and that doesn't even address the player "tendencies" issue - that exception just deals with batting order)...........

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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by BadFundamentals
    A BB example:

    For a stat like RC to work at PLAYER level it would have to operate on the assumption that over time all BBs for all players on all teams are equal (similar for doubles, triples etc.) in regards to Run Scoring efforts.

    Example: In national league with pitchers hitting your ninth hole will be an out for first 5 innings what 85% of the time? Your 8th hole will be an out ~70-75% of time on average? You only get THREE outs an inning.

    I'm sure you know of that Tango table which gives run scoring percentages based on outs and runners on base. That table doesn't take into account quality of hitters.

    So right from the start it is easy to see at micro level why a BB to a top of the order hitter who has great speed is FAR more valuable to team run scoring efforts (and would be on high end of Tango table curve) than a BB to a 6 or 7 hitter who doesn't run very well. (and would be on low end of Tango table curve)

    If this was just one exception you might say insignificant but the FACT is these situational "tendencies" for lack of better word or "distortion possibilities" are present every time thru the lineup with every player in different ways. They all wash out for lineup as a whole but for a specific player you'll get same distortion potential over and over and over, every time thru lineup and every game.
    - - - - - - - - -

    So I guess my point is variance/margin of error would increase greatly at PLAYER level because of individual player and situational differences. Throw all players in a bucket fine. But just to grab ONE player out of bucket - he is likely to be overstated or understated and possibly in a predictable way.
    But your example of a team that does those situational aspects well, the Nats, don't actually do them well. They don't hit well with RISP. Optimal lineup construction has more to do with getting you highest OBP people more ABs than anything else. James Click had a good article on this in BP awhile back.

    Also, a BB is always preferable to an out, in any situation. If someone is going to give you a walk, than you take it, because if you try not to take it you're doing what the pitcher wants and you aren't very likely to get a hit. You cannot punish players for walking with RISP when the pitcher isn't going to throw them anything.

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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Let's stay with BB and your point "a BB is always preferable to an out".....I agree.

    Let's say every "non-out event" has three components:
    1) extend inning, not an out component
    2) possibility of becoming a run and
    3) possibility of driving in a run(s)

    It's easy to see how #1 will be the same for all players all through batting order. But it is ALSO EASY to see how there could be many differences in components 2 and 3. It is those differences which are very tough to deal with accurately at player level for different slots in batting order.

    So many different factors impact components 2 and 3. And eventhough they may be subtle and seem minor for one at bat or one trip thru batting order when you take sum total of 4/5 trips thru batting order for season full of games they become very significant.

  10. #69
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor
    I won one of my three Nobel Peace Prizes for my work on the Pythag thm of baseball.
    What were the other two for?
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

    http://www.facebook.com/pages/Rally-...24872650873160

  11. #70
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    So, by your measure, Adam Dunn shouldn't be leading the team in runs scored since he's hit 6th or 7th most of the season?
    'When I'm not longer rapping, I want to open up an ice cream parlor and call myself Scoop Dogg.'
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R
    What were the other two for?
    I would imagine they were for the lava lamp and the water bird rocking thingy.
    'When I'm not longer rapping, I want to open up an ice cream parlor and call myself Scoop Dogg.'
    -Snoop on his retirement

    Your Mom is happy.

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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by BadFundamentals
    Let's stay with BB and your point "a BB is always preferable to an out".....I agree.

    Let's say every "non-out event" has three components:
    1) extend inning, not an out component
    2) possibility of becoming a run and
    3) possibility of driving in a run(s)

    It's easy to see how #1 will be the same for all players all through batting order. But it is ALSO EASY to see how there could be many differences in components 2 and 3. It is those differences which are very tough to deal with accurately at player level for different slots in batting order.

    So many different factors impact components 2 and 3. And eventhough they may be subtle and seem minor for one at bat or one trip thru batting order when you take sum total of 4/5 trips thru batting order for season full of games they become very significant.
    I agree the differences between 2 and 3 are subtle and that over a season it is significant, but I reach a different conclusion. Over the season, the player that is more likely to be a run will be more productive because it is a TEAM game, not an individual. We just have a fundamental disagreement, you think that a player's job is bring every run home that is presented to him. I think that a player's job is to bring runs home AND score runs, and the only way you do that is to take what the pitcher is giving you and do your best to get on base.

  14. #73
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Leader
    I would imagine they were for the lava lamp and the water bird rocking thingy.
    Although, I wouldn't be surprised if he got mentioned for his work on the runs created formula, as well as his services at birthdays and bar mitzfahs.
    'When I'm not longer rapping, I want to open up an ice cream parlor and call myself Scoop Dogg.'
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    Your Mom is happy.

  15. #74
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    I think Raisor won a Pulitzer Prize for his "Girls are Evil" work as well.

    Pay attention to the open sky

  16. #75
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by rdiersin
    But your example of a team that does those situational aspects well, the Nats, don't actually do them well. They don't hit well with RISP.
    He'll continue to ignore the truth of that matter because he began the thread with an inaccurate conclusion caused by lack of research.

    "The Nats are beating the pythag thus they must not be striking out much and must be very good situationally on offense."

    That's the premise but no effort was made to actually determine whether or not it was true.

    Then we find out that the Nats strike out a bunch and have progressively higher K rates as the situation "intensity" increases while we see a degradation of BA and Slugging (the true RBI component). They don't bunt more often situationally than the average team. They're the worst Stolen Base team in the National League.

    And that's the problem. There's really no research done beyond what makes "sense" to BF. Because he believes strikeouts are the Devil, any team not reputed to be a power club offensively is assumed to be a low-K team that's exceptionally good at "smallball" components and "situational" hitting.

    It's a witch hunt and, as with all witch hunts, actual facts are either glossed over, obfuscated, or completely ignored if they don't jibe with the belief system of the accuser.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
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