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Thread: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

  1. #76
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Then we find out that the Nats strike out a bunch and have progressively higher K rates as the situation "intensity" increases while we see a degradation of BA and Slugging (the true RBI component). They don't bunt more often situationally than the average team. They're the worst Stolen Base team in the National League.
    Its just like the Reds, its the pitching that is the reason the two team are where they are at, not the situational hitting.

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  3. #77
    Puffy 3:16 Puffy's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by rdiersin
    Its just like the Reds, its the pitching that is the reason the two team are where they are at, not the situational hitting.
    Alright - stop making sense!

    I might have to negativize you if you keep making valid points using logic and stuff.

    Don't tempt me, cause I'll do it. I will. Really. I will.
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  4. #78
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Leader
    I would imagine they were for the lava lamp and the water bird rocking thingy.
    brown-noser.

    "I came here to kick ass and chew bubble gum... and I'm all out of bubble gum."
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  5. #79
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by rdiersin
    Its just like the Reds, its the pitching that is the reason the two team are where they are at, not the situational hitting.
    Yep. Exactly.

    And the ironic thing is that after last night, the Nats still have an almost identical overall and RISP Batting Average (.260, .262). They're SLG is lower with RISP They've scored the fewest Runs in the National League but when you look at the RISP numbers, they take a tiny jump up to 13th in Runs Scored with RISP while having the 2nd lowest number of AB in that situation.

    So why do they jump up three spots with a constant BA and a lower SLG versus their overall numbers? If it's not BA, and it's not SLG, and it's not K's (because they K more with RISP), and it's not Stolen Bases, and it's not Bunts, then what is it?

    They're seventh in the NL in BB with RISP. That's what. The Nats' OBP is 33 points higher with RISP because of it.

    In fact, the Nats have posted 3,129 PA this season and have taken 260 BB overall. Yet, in only 841 PA with RISP, the Nationals have drawn 107 BB.

    That's astounding. The small bump in RISP production for the Nationals is entirely attributable to the fact that they've taken 41% of their BB this season in the 27% of their PA that fall in the RISP realm. The additional opportunities generated by this with RISP have led to a small increase in the Nats ability to score Runs and it's the ONLY significant positive deviation we can find when we take an objective look at their numbers for 2005.

    Funny how that works.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
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  6. #80
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by 2001MUgrad
    Those one run games will catch up to them. They still have a chance to make a splash now with a trade or 2 and really improve their team. Was it last year or 2 years ago about the middle of June the Reds were in first place maybe 5 games or so above .500, but had given up more runs than they had scored. It caught up with them and more than likely it'll catch up with the Nats, but they have a chance to improve.
    But the Nats have far, far better pitching than the Reds did. Hernandez is a legitimate ace, and Loaiza's worth every cent as well.

  7. #81
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis
    But the Nats have far, far better pitching than the Reds did. Hernandez is a legitimate ace, and Loaiza's worth every cent as well.
    The staff really helps them if a slump occurs on the hitting side... especially playing in that pitchers park. A good pitching park that reduces runs enables them to weather the streakiness their contact first team will be encumbered with (eventually) better than being in a hitters park.

  8. #82
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor
    I also do weddings, parties, and Bar Mitzahs
    Hey, weren't you in Sha-Na-Na for a while? Or was it Menudo?

  9. #83
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by rdiersin
    I agree the differences between 2 and 3 are subtle and that over a season it is significant, but I reach a different conclusion. Over the season, the player that is more likely to be a run will be more productive because it is a TEAM game, not an individual. We just have a fundamental disagreement, you think that a player's job is bring every run home that is presented to him. I think that a player's job is to bring runs home AND score runs, and the only way you do that is to take what the pitcher is giving you and do your best to get on base.
    Yes we seem to agree in certain areas but I guess fundamentally you are ok with just dismissing the situational and player-specific stuff as insignificant and I'm not.

    How do you explain this?

    2005 to Date
    Griffey 47 Runs and 53 RBI = Total of 102
    Dunn 57 Runs and 46 RBI = Total of 103

    If you accept that generally speaking for a team (Runs + RBIs) / 2 = Actual Runs then for a player it should follow that as individuals these guys are each responsible for ~ 51 Runs

    according to espn
    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/...hand=a&pos=all

    Griff's Runs Created this year is 52.3 (close enough to ~51 for me)
    Dunn's Runs Created this year is 61.5 (looks like an overstatement)
    - - - - - - - -

    I'm aware of the "team dependent" argument against RBIs but RBIs are no more "team dependent" than Dunn's 58 BBs which no doubt some are a function of his hitting in 6 hole and having the team's worst hitters following him - those same BBs that pump up that RC number.

  10. #84
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by Yachtzee
    Hey, weren't you in Sha-Na-Na for a while? Or was it Menudo?
    It was both, he's very talented
    Go Gators!

  11. #85
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by BadFundamentals
    I'm aware of the "team dependent" argument against RBIs but RBIs are no more "team dependent" than Dunn's 58 BBs which no doubt some are a function of his hitting in 6 hole and having the team's worst hitters following him - those same BBs that pump up that RC number.
    Someone has to be driving in Dunn when he walks since he LEADS THE TEAM IN RUNS SCORED!
    'When I'm not longer rapping, I want to open up an ice cream parlor and call myself Scoop Dogg.'
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  12. #86
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    If you accept that generally speaking for a team (Runs + RBIs) / 2 = Actual Runs then for a player it should follow that as individuals these guys are each responsible for ~ 51 Runs
    Translation:

    If rdiersin can accept an overly-simplistic and entirely inaccurate premise, then you'll be right.

    If you'll accept that the moon is made of green cheese, then I can prove that man never landed on it.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  13. #87
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    BTW, BF-

    It's about time you addressed why you were so wildly inaccurate about the Washington Nationals offensive unit. Considering that you called Raisor out on this thread and then ended up being completely wrong about it, I think Raisor deserves at least that much.

    Go ahead.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  14. #88
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM
    You're missing the most important skill, Steel. It's all about directing anger towards winning. That's something you just can't quantify.
    Actually that can be quantified. Obviously you weren't aware that all the first place teams lead the league in two major categories: AWQ (anger to wins quotient) and SF. (scrappy factor) Any Postastat could give you the exact numbers, probably in three different graphs and tables.

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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by BadFundamentals
    If you accept that generally speaking for a team (Runs + RBIs) / 2 = Actual Runs then for a player it should follow that as individuals these guys are each responsible for ~ 51 Runs
    I don't accept that a players worth is their (RBI+R)/2. That's an estimation scheme that already knows the result for a team. It cannot be applied to a situation in which you do not have those measurements truely available and that's the case for a player. Also for a team RBI~=R, but that's not the case for the player.

  16. #90
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    BTW, BF-

    It's about time you addressed why you were so wildly inaccurate about the Washington Nationals offensive unit. Considering that you called Raisor out on this thread and then ended up being completely wrong about it, I think Raisor deserves at least that much.

    Go ahead.
    In my neighborhood, we call that a triple dog dare.

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