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Thread: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

  1. #46
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    which I believe was the best in baseball
    Actually, the Yankees finished 12 games over.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
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  3. #47
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Actually, the Yankees finished 12 games over.
    well... how bout the NL then?

  4. #48
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    well... how bout the NL then?
    Yeah. I think that was the Reds.

    I have no idea if it holds true because I'd have to do a lot of research on the subject to effectively prove it, but I've always felt that teams who are able to best beat their pythag are teams who:

    1. Have a combination of either Excellent Hitting/Mediocre Pitching or Mediocre Hitting/Excellent Pitching.
    2. End up winning a very high percentage of their one-Run games regardless of method (i.e. "smallball" versus "powerball").

    In short, I think beating the pythag is random, but teams that minimize the randomness allowing for more one-Run (or 2-Run maybe) situations over the course of a season are better off in respect to actually beating their pythag.

    Again, just a theory.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  5. #49
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by pahster
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runs_cr...h_runs_created

    I guess I just don't see the problem with it. Sure, it continues to evolve, but as it does it only becomes more accurate.
    As noted in your link:
    Accuracy
    Runs created is believed to be an accurate measure of an individual's offensive contribution because, when used on whole teams, the formula normally closely approximates how many runs the team actually scores. Even the basic version of runs created usually predicts a team's run total within approximately 20 runs.2 Other, more advanced versions are even more accurate.
    - - - - -- - - - - -

    Just because it is accurate on "whole teams" doesn't mean you can take it down a level and apply it to players and expect it to sustain accuracy at PLAYER level. That is my problem with it. Some players it will overstate others it will understate. Those offset one another on team but not for individual player.

    I'm fine with it at team, game etc.. etc.. level - groups of players but not applied to just one player. There are far too many variables at player level which can go addressed or not be adequately addressed.

  6. #50
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by BadFundamentals
    As noted in your link:
    Accuracy
    Runs created is believed to be an accurate measure of an individual's offensive contribution because, when used on whole teams, the formula normally closely approximates how many runs the team actually scores. Even the basic version of runs created usually predicts a team's run total within approximately 20 runs.2 Other, more advanced versions are even more accurate.
    - - - - -- - - - - -

    Just because it is accurate on "whole teams" doesn't mean you can take it down a level and apply it to players and expect it to sustain accuracy at PLAYER level. That is my problem with it. I'm fine with it at team, game etc.. etc.. level - groups of players but not applied to just one player. There are far too many variables at player level which can go addressed or not be adequately addressed.
    Yes you can take it to the player level because the team Runs Created numbers are an amalgam of the players who put up the numbers for the team.

    Yeesh.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  7. #51
    Something clever pahster's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Yes you can take it to the player level because the team Runs Created numbers are an amalgam of the players who put up the numbers for the team.
    That pretty much sums up my thoughts on it.

  8. #52
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Yes you can take it to the player level because the team Runs Created numbers are an amalgam of the players who put up the numbers for the team.

    Yeesh.
    Exactly.

    Take Dunn's plate appearances that lead to his 60.5 Runs Created away and the Reds' team Runs Created would be exactly 60.5 RC lower.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  9. #53
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by BadFundamentals
    As noted in your link:
    Accuracy
    Runs created is believed to be an accurate measure of an individual's offensive contribution because, when used on whole teams, the formula normally closely approximates how many runs the team actually scores. Even the basic version of runs created usually predicts a team's run total within approximately 20 runs.2 Other, more advanced versions are even more accurate.
    - - - - -- - - - - -

    Just because it is accurate on "whole teams" doesn't mean you can take it down a level and apply it to players and expect it to sustain accuracy at PLAYER level. That is my problem with it. Some players it will overstate others it will understate. Those offset one another on team but not for individual player.

    I'm fine with it at team, game etc.. etc.. level - groups of players but not applied to just one player. There are far too many variables at player level which can go addressed or not be adequately addressed.
    You can take it to a player level BF. I understand your doubts for using it on team statistics and the jump to players, but Extrapolated runs (XR) is another similar stat that on a team stat basis gives similar correlation with Runs scored as RC does. Xr, or other types like Palmers I believe, is linear, so each players contribution adds to the teams Xr. So you might then say, well it doesn't work on a micro basis. But if you look at all of 2003 and 2004 games logs, you can see the Xr and similar stats perform fairly well with a correlation coefficient of around 0.85 or so to runs scored for each game in those seasons. So, in summary, it does measure player contribution, and does a heck of alot better than rbi's and the like.

  10. #54
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    In short, I think beating the pythag is random, but teams that minimize the randomness allowing for more one-Run (or 2-Run maybe) situations over the course of a season are better off in respect to actually beating their pythag.

    Again, just a theory.
    Someone on this board a few years ago shared the theory that beating pythagorian projections was tied to bullpen ERA, especially back-end bullpen ERA. Something about the ability of your closer and your best set-up men to hold small leads and avoid turning 1-run wins into 1-run losses.

    Of course, you could also end up with a Danny Graves who turns 3-run wins into 1-run wins. That also helps you beat pythagorian projections.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    Someone on this board a few years ago shared the theory that beating pythagorian projections was tied to bullpen ERA, especially back-end bullpen ERA. Something about the ability of your closer and your best set-up men to hold small leads and avoid turning 1-run wins into 1-run losses.

    Of course, you could also end up with a Danny Graves who turns 3-run wins into 1-run wins. That also helps you beat pythagorian projections.
    Interesting, that was essentially the argument Dayn Perry made in the BP article WOY put earlier in the thread. It will be interesting to see how it plays out the rest of the year.

  12. #56
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Yeah. I think that was the Reds.

    I have no idea if it holds true because I'd have to do a lot of research on the subject to effectively prove it, but I've always felt that teams who are able to best beat their pythag are teams who:

    1. Have a combination of either Excellent Hitting/Mediocre Pitching or Mediocre Hitting/Excellent Pitching.
    2. End up winning a very high percentage of their one-Run games regardless of method (i.e. "smallball" versus "powerball").

    In short, I think beating the pythag is random, but teams that minimize the randomness allowing for more one-Run (or 2-Run maybe) situations over the course of a season are better off in respect to actually beating their pythag.

    Again, just a theory.
    You're missing the most important skill, Steel. It's all about directing anger towards winning. That's something you just can't quantify.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  13. #57
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM
    You're missing the most important skill, Steel. It's all about directing anger towards winning. That's something you just can't quantify.

    If the Reds were able to harness the anger of Reds fans there would be no stopping them!
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  14. #58
    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor
    If the Reds were able to harness the anger of Reds fans there would be no stopping them!

    If Reds fans anger was electricity, we could light up New York.
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
    ~ Mark Twain

  15. #59
    Puffy 3:16 Puffy's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by RFS62
    mmmmmmmmmmm, doughnuts
    Mmmmmmmmmmm, the KRISPY 7.......

    Olmedo Saenz
    Sandy Alomar Jr.
    Aaron Miles
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    "I came here to kick ass and chew bubble gum... and I'm all out of bubble gum."
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  16. #60
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: Raisor's Pyth Thm of Baseball and the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor
    I also invented the lava lamp.
    Raisor, you will get rep points for this. I have to spread some wealth around first, but you will get some points for this.

    Hilarious.
    'When I'm not longer rapping, I want to open up an ice cream parlor and call myself Scoop Dogg.'
    -Snoop on his retirement

    Your Mom is happy.


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