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Thread: Merged threads: I believe / Are the Reds out of it?

  1. #91
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Merged threads: I believe / Are the Reds out of it?

    Here's my thought...I hope my numbers are right. If we go 19-8 in the next few games, the team will be 70-70...then we can talk wildcard. Simple as that.

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  3. #92
    1st pick 2022 B.B. draft George Foster's Avatar
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    Re: Merged threads: I believe / Are the Reds out of it?

    The reds are now 10 games under .500, not 11.

  4. #93
    RZ Chamber of Commerce Unassisted's Avatar
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    Re: Are the Reds out of it?

    Quote Originally Posted by kyred14
    I think you mean 79-83.
    Yeah, that.
    /r/reds

  5. #94
    Member TeamCasey's Avatar
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    Re: Merged threads: I believe / Are the Reds out of it?

    Yes, they were out long ago.

    ...and I'm the original "I believe" gal!

    I swapped my rose colored glasses for blue blockers early on this season.
    Pots and Kettles

  6. #95
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Merged threads: I believe / Are the Reds out of it?

    Blue?!?!

    Have you gone over to the cubs side?!?!?!?!?!?
    Go Gators!

  7. #96
    Go Redlegs!!!!
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    Re: Merged threads: I believe / Are the Reds out of it?

    I Still think it can be done.

    Ya gotta believe!!!
    "Its easy to love a winner like LeafGuard." -Marty Brennaman commenting on the Reds pitching staff.

  8. #97
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    Re: Merged threads: I believe / Are the Reds out of it?

    if Johnny Evers and Hank Gowdy can stay healthy, then we'll sweep the A's in the WS

  9. #98
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Merged threads: I believe / Are the Reds out of it?

    Quote Originally Posted by RFS62
    It would be a nice project for someone smarter than me (I know, that doesn't narrow the pool down much) to calculate what our record would have been had everyone played to their career norms.
    PECOTA actually predicted a most likely scenario of 76-86. So did chili, Boss, and paintmered.

    I projected a 77-85 record after running a RC analysis based on the most likely Runs Scored/Runs Allowed numbers (a 10-Pythag Win gain over 2004). jmcclain matched that. woy threw up 78-84 as the number.

    M2 (spring feverishly-optimistic as he was) predicted 74 Wins, Ravenlord chose 75 as his target number of victories, and Raisor stole that number from RL's computer. alloverjr picked the same number of wins, but didn't resort to thievery.

    Right now, there are three guys who are on the nose if everything holds equal- deltachi, RFA1966, and MWM predicted a record of 72-90, which is smack dab where the Reds would be if they post the same RS and RA per game averages going forward.

    However, if the Reds play .500 ball the rest of the way, they're going to end up with 75 Wins. .522 ball would hit PECOTA spot-on. A .543 W/L record from here on out would give them 77 Wins. They'd need to post a .565 or better Win % to get any higher than that.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  10. #99
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Merged threads: I believe / Are the Reds out of it?

    If this club gets to .500 it will be a miracle.

    If they make the playoffs, it will be because at least 5 teams ahead of them had so many players found guilty of steroid use they were unable to field a complete team.

    Ain't gonna happen.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.


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