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Thread: Scoring Runs at a Historic Rate

  1. #1
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Scoring Runs at a Historic Rate

    Even after a 3 game series in the Death Valley NL east the Reds offense still looks powerful, one thing about being a Reds fan is that hitting always seems to be a more frequent guest to Reds baseball then pitching. That said I ask you “Who” can't love a team with an all world CF, a slugging corner outfielder, a budding young player at the other corner outfield position, an offensive surprise at both the catchers position and third base. Not to mention the emerging middle infielder and the other middle infielder that slugs above average for his position. Not to mention the Latin phenom in the dugout, you know…. the one with prodigious power.

    I mean that sounds like a great offense, of course I’m not talking about the 2005 Reds, I'm talking about the Reds team from 40 years ago.

    First let's run through some numbers that might bring this team (the 1965 Reds and the 2005 Reds) and their place in the games history up to speed.

    Since 1900 only 35 teams have had 100 runs over the league average. Today the Reds lead the NL in runs scored with 660 runs, this gives them a plus 89 in runs scored vs. the current average and they are on pace to score 848 runs. If they top the leagues average by 100 runs and have a losing record then they will be only the 4th team out of those 36 to have a losing record, and the only team that didn’t play in Colorado or the Baker Bowl

    It's a pretty impressive list, 71% of the teams on the list won either their division or league (or in case of the 1951 Dodgers were in a playoff) 31% won the World Series and 6% shared the same year with another team on the list that won the league title.14.25% of them are the Rockies or the Depressions version of the Rockies the Philadelphia Phillies.

    RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not sorting criteria
    OBA vs. the league average displayed only--not sorting criteria
    Code:
    RUNS                          YEAR     DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE    RC/G      EBH      OBA    
    
    1    Pirates                  1902      193      775      582     1.21      302     .023   
    2    Dodgers                  1953      189      955      766     1.22      541     .021   
    3    Reds                     1976      178      857      679     1.47      475     .028   
    4    Rockies                  1996      177      961      784     1.02      555     .015   
    5    Rockies                  1997      149      923      774     0.99      548     .015   
    6    Reds                     1975      147      840      693     0.81      439     .016   
    7    Reds                     1965      138      825      687     0.98      512     .018   
    8    Dodgers                  1955      136      857      721     0.69      475     .019   
    9    Giants                   1905      135      780      645     1.00      318     .024   
    10   Giants                   1924      133      857      724     0.73      445     .013   
    11   Braves                   2003      130      907      777     0.89      587     .008   
    12   Rockies                  2001      130      923      793     1.03      598     .014   
    13   Dodgers                  1949      126      879      753     0.41      435     .010   
    14   Pirates                  1971      124      788      664     0.63      438     .004   
    15   Cubs                     1906      124      704      580     0.47      272     .009   
    16   Braves                   1964      122      803      681     0.54      465     .011   
    17   Giants                   1908      121      652      531     0.67      245     .034   
    18   Cardinals                1942      119      755      636     0.56      411     .010   
    19   Rockies                  2000      119      968      849     0.50      534     .011   
    20   Dodgers                  1942      118      741      623     0.34      359     .010   
    21   Giants                   1962      117      878      761     0.48      471     .004   
    22   Pirates                  1925      116      912      796     0.65      499     .011   
    23   Giants                   1921      112      840      728     0.37      405     .011   
    24   Dodgers                  1951      112      855      743     0.49      470     .010   
    25   Giants                   1912      109      823      714     0.39      367     .010   
    26   Pirates                  1901      109      776      667     0.58      302     .014   
    27   Phillies                 1977      108      847      739     0.73      508     .009   
    28   Cubs                     1929      107      982      875     0.33      495     .005   
    29   Pirates                  1909      105      701      596     0.43      335     .007   
    30   Giants                   1904      105      744      639     0.46      298     .013   
    31   Cardinals                1901      104      792      688     0.36      320     .006   
    32   Phillies                 1993      104      877      773     0.62      504     .015   
    33   Reds                     1969      102      798      696     0.55      437     .005   
    34   Dodgers                  1941      100      800      700     0.72      456     .011   
    35   Phillies                 1932      100      844      744     0.70      519     .011
    If you break the list up by dates/eras it would look like this

    Deadball Era 77% wins Title
    Code:
    1900-1920
    RUNS                          YEAR     DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE    RC/G    
    1    Pirates                  1902      193      775      582     1.21   
    2    Giants                   1905      135      780      645     1.00   
    3    Cubs                     1906      124      704      580     0.47   
    4    Giants                   1908      121      652      531     0.67   
    5    Giants                   1912      109      823      714     0.39   
    6    Pirates                  1901      109      776      667     0.58   
    7    Pirates                  1909      105      701      596     0.43   
    8    Giants                   1904      105      744      639     0.46   
    9    Cardinals                1901      104      792      688     0.36
    Ruth Era 75% wins title
    Code:
    1921-1945
    RUNS                          YEAR     DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE    RC/G    
    1    Giants                   1924      133      857      724     0.73   
    2    Cardinals                1942      119      755      636     0.56   
    3    Dodgers                  1942      118      741      623     0.34   
    4    Pirates                  1925      116      912      796     0.65   
    5    Giants                   1921      112      840      728     0.37   
    6    Cubs                     1929      107      982      875     0.33   
    7    Dodgers                  1941      100      800      700     0.72   
    8    Phillies                 1932      100      844      744     0.70
    Post War 75% win title
    Code:
    1946-1961
    RUNS                          YEAR     DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE    RC/G    
    1    Dodgers                  1953      189      955      766     1.22   
    2    Dodgers                  1955      136      857      721     0.69   
    3    Dodgers                  1949      126      879      753     0.41   
    4    Dodgers                  1951      112      855      743     0.49
    Expansion Era #1 33% Win title
    Code:
    1962-1968
    RUNS                          YEAR     DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE    RC/G    
    1    Reds                     1965      138      825      687     0.98   
    2    Braves                   1964      122      803      681     0.54   
    3    Giants                   1962      117      878      761     0.48
    Expansion Era #2 80% Win title
    Code:
    1969-1992
    RUNS                          YEAR     DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE    RC/G    
    1    Reds                     1976      178      857      679     1.47   
    2    Reds                     1975      147      840      693     0.81   
    3    Pirates                  1971      124      788      664     0.63   
    4    Phillies                 1977      108      847      739     0.73   
    5    Reds                     1969      102      798      696     0.55
    Expansion Era #3 33% win title.
    Code:
    1993-2004
    RUNS                          YEAR     DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE    RC/G    
    1    Rockies                  1996      177      961      784     1.02   
    2    Rockies                  1997      149      923      774     0.99   
    3    Braves                   2003      130      907      777     0.89   
    4    Rockies                  2001      130      923      793     1.03   
    5    Rockies                  2000      119      968      849     0.50   
    6    Phillies                 1993      104      877      773     0.62
    Let's remove the Rockies (who are freak of nature and muck up the numbers) and look at the top 10 non Rockie teams 3-5 are property of the Reds, 3 and 4 are the seminal years 75-76, any rehash of that is redundant, but I will tell you this, the 1.47 difference that the Reds had vs. the League in RC/27 is the all time high in NL History and second only to the 1927 Yankees.

    What really interest me are the 1965 Reds who fall a small .002 percentage points from being the 7th team to average a full run per/27 outs more than the league average.
    Code:
     
    
    RUNS                          YEAR     DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE    RC/G      EBH      OBA    
    1    Pirates                  1902      193      775      582     1.21      302     .023   
    2    Dodgers                  1953      189      955      766     1.22      541     .021   
    3    Reds                     1976      178      857      679     1.47      475     .028   
    4    Reds                     1975      147      840      693     0.81      439     .016   
    5    Reds                     1965      138      825      687     0.98      512     .018   
    6    Dodgers                  1955      136      857      721     0.69      475     .019   
    7    Giants                   1905      135      780      645     1.00      318     .024   
    9    Giants                   1924      133      857      724     0.73      445     .013   
    9    Braves                   2003      130      907      777     0.89      587     .008   
    10   Dodgers                  1949      126      879      753     0.41      435     .019
    Who were these Reds and why did they smack the hell out of the ball so well especially at home where they had a .287/. 355/. 475 to a road line .259/. 324/. 404?

    A common theme of Reds lore post V-J day is the presence of extreme hitting and the just hanging in there pitching. A nice example of this is found in the 1965 team, a team that has a lot in common with the 2005 Reds.

    Code:
    1965 Reds 		2005 Reds
    
    Pete Rose		Felipe Lopez
    Leo Cardenas 		Rich Aurilia
    Deron Johnson		Joe Randa/Ed E.
    Gordy Coleman		Sean Casey
    Frank Robinson		Adam Dunn
    Vada Pinson		Ken Griffey 
    Tommy Harper		Austin Kearns	
    Tony Perez		Wily Mo Pena
    Don Pavletich  		Valentine
    Johnny Edwards		LaRue
    1965 was Rose’s breakout year moving from a .645 OPS to a .828 OPS, boosted by .43 gain in batting average, it also was Cárdenas career high (as a regular) in slugging percentage with a .431 vs. the leagues average for shortstops which was a pitiful .309.

    The real offensive surprise of 1965 came from the 3rd base position, the 1964 Reds 3rd baseman created only 3.36 runs per every 27 outs, in 1965 that increased to 5.79 runs per 27 outs. This change came strictly from one change the insertion of Deron Johnson at the 3rd base position from his prior position at 1st base. This move begins a pattern that continues to this day.

    Fielding wise it didn't exactly work out very well, here are the 5 worst fielding percentage numbers for Reds 3rd baseman since WW 2
    Code:
    FIELDING PERCENTAGE           YEAR     PCT       E     
    1    Dan Driessen             1974     .915       24   
    2    Tony Perez               1970     .923       35   
    3    Tony Perez               1969     .937       32   
    4    Grady Hatton             1947     .938       26   
    5    Deron Johnson            1965     .948       22
    You would think that the failed move of Johnson would have taught the Reds, or the Perez attempt, Or Driessen.... yet many still wondered if Kearns could do it... anyway I digress.

    Gordy Coleman was a slick fielding good guy who manned first base in 1965; it also was the only year he hit over .300, a feat that really helped his Ob% which was never anything to really talk about. It was the young Latin phenom that shared the position with Gordy, Young Tony Perez was on base challenged, but showed power that was not to be ignored.

    Everyone knows Frank, .296/.386/.540/.925 and Vada .305/.352/.484/.836 just like they know Dunn and Griffey. In 1965 Tommy Harper was a fleet young corner outfielder with a bright future ahead of him, his 35 steals was the high-water mark for steals for the Reds in the 60's and he, Pinson and Robinson led the national league in outfielder fielding percentage.

    The catching in 1965 was as much a surprise as it is this year; Johnny Edwards Ohio State alum had first come up with the Reds in 1961 and 1965 was his peak year in MLB (once again at the age of 27) his .827 OPS in 1965 was a bigger surprise than his .553 the following season. Don Pavletich caught a 3rd of the games and smashed the ball, turning out a .863 OPS in191 at bats.

    One note is that roster management was a bit tighter in those days; the Reds only had 10 guys with over 100 at bats the whole season. This seasons Reds already have 14 players with at least 100 at bats.

    Career years from 3rd, catcher and shortstop, plus established stars and emerging talent, what's not to love?

    The rote Reds fan answer to that is almost always found in the pitching, like 1956 and this year the pitching was the key to the team’s final place in the standings. Sammy Ellis and Jim Maloney anchored the staff, each throwing more than 250 innings and winning more than 20 games, the only time since 1941 that 2 or more Reds pitchers had 20 wins in a season.

    However the rest of the staff wasn't all that and a bag of chips, John Tsitouris, Jim O'Toole and Joey Jay were disappointing and on the whole the Reds walked 1 batter more every nine innings then they did in 1964. By the end of the season the Reds staff was .034 below the league average in ERA, leaving them locked in at number nine in a ten-team league in ERA.

    This reemerging theme of the slugging team and almost there pitching is like a bad tattoo to most long time Reds fans.

    To maybe bring it more into perspective the 1965 team is a lot like the 1977 team.

    Big offense and almost there pitching.
    Code:
    ERA                      YEAR     DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
    Reds                     1965     -.34     3.88     3.54   
    Reds                     1977     -.30     4.22     3.91   
    Reds                     1978     -.24     3.82     3.58
    1965 was good year, but the pitching was only good enough for a 89 wins in a season that first place went to a team that won 97 games.

    One note is the final standings was season, 4 games short of the Pythagorean W-L which came out to 93-69, that and the last week of the season is what lost Dick Sisler his job.

    But it still was a good season, with the Reds drawing a million for the first time since 1961.

    But also good enough to tease the Reds into selling off Robinson, hiring Don Heffner, moving Rose, Helms and Johnson around and generally getting worse in their attempt to get better.

    This year the Reds team are on pace to beat that team in runs scored, however the staff is now sporting a 5.24 ERA to the leagues 4.27.

    Just imagine what half a run means over 162 games, then imagine the Reds with a 4.6 ERA at this point in the season, that would be good enough for 80 more runs scored than allowed instead of 40 runs in the hole.

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  3. #2
    This one's for you Edd Heath's Avatar
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    Re: Scoring Runs at a Historic Rate

    If you don't have time to read this completely, don't worry - it will be archived.....

    Excellent job again and as usual WOY.....
    Some people play baseball. Baseball plays Jay Bruce.

  4. #3
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: Scoring Runs at a Historic Rate

    I've always been interested in a comparsion of the 1964 Reds and 1965 Reds. The 1964 Reds used superior pitching, surrendering the fewest runs in the league despite having Crosley Field as a home park, to win 92 games and fall one game short of the NL pennant. The 1965 Reds had a fantastic offense but won only 89 games because of pitching shortcomings. If the Reds had been able to combine their 1964 pitching staff with their 1965 offense, they would've won, what, 105, 110 games?
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."

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    Member smith288's Avatar
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    Re: Scoring Runs at a Historic Rate

    Quote Originally Posted by Heath
    If you don't have time to read this completely, don't worry - it will be archived.....

    Excellent job again and as usual WOY.....
    Good...my eyes started to cross.

  6. #5
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    Re: Scoring Runs at a Historic Rate

    It's these numbers that make me think the reds could make a big jump in the number of wins they have next year....as long as they don't screw up the offense. All they have to do is a build a pitching staff that is close to league average. gettting the staff close to league average may seem impossible, but i think it's doable (since the ASB they are probably close to LA). Don't break up the offense. It's fun and it works.


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