Strong outing by Homer Bailey tonight

[traderumor]

I don't see how you can responsibly back those relief appearances out of the mix. That's still Homer Bailey on the mound. IIRC, he hasn't been asked to come in mid-inning at any time. So he gets a full warmup on his normal rest and pitches under pretty much the same circumstances as we would a start. That counts in my book.



Sure, but there's plenty of other guys, power pitchers in fact, who manage to be 19 and consistent. Doesn't mean that Bailey won't find the strikezone in the future or that he'll be a lesser pitcher down the road, just that UNTIL HE GAINS CONSISTENCY AND PERFORMS BETTER ON A CONSISTENT BASIS HIS OVERALL VALUE WILL BE LESS THAN IT COULD BE. That's why I don't want to see an aggressive push with Homer. The Reds need to let his performance catch up to his promise.

None of which I was arguing against. All I said was that he seems to be heading in the right direction. The reference to the relief appearances were because you had noted that his ERA had actually gone up in the second half. Of course, I'm sure you understand that there is a difference between starting and relieving, and for a 19 year-old, perhaps he can't handle doing Kerry Wood and come in and be lights out in the middle of a game. It isn't like its a totally meritless idea.

Consistency, certainly, which the five starts I have pointed to are not enough to make that claim, which I never did. All I said is he COULD be turning a corner. I'm not sure what is wrong with such an idea. You've made your point, but I was never arguing against it, at least not on purpose.

[TRF]

Bailey in AA once again raises the value question.

One of the purposes of a farm system is to create player value for use in trades. Like having a healthy nest egg to fall back on, it's good to have even if you don't use it.

The Reds consistently undermine their player value with overpromotions. Bailey's been a fairly poor pitcher in the Midwest League this season. Sure, he has the potential to get better in a flash, but right now he's a kid with spotty control and a lot to learn.

Homer Bailey may or may not pitch in the majors. He may or may not pitch well in the majors. He may or may not pitch well in the majors for the Reds. No one knows.

So while you're figuring it out, how about putting him in a position to put up some eye-popping numbers?

Case in point, Tyler Pelland. He's 5-6, 4.15, 93.1 IP (which is awfully low), 1.63 WHIP and too easy to hit in High A. He does have a nifty K rate, but if this is going to what you get from him then he's really not much of a prospect.

Had he been placed in Dayton he probably would have double-digit wins, a tiny ERA, solid-to-gaudy peripherals. Had the Reds allowed Tyler Pelland to post a big season the market perception of him would be a lot more positive and the franchise would have more options as a result of it.

Damn Skippy. I am a huge Pelland fan, and had him pegged to start for Dayton this year. I was stunned to see him in Sarasota. Pelland could have dominated the Midwest league, and really build on that for next year at Sarasota. As it is, I am hoping he repeats High A next year.

[M2]

I don't think there is any difference between starting and relieving in terms of the way Bailey's been used in those situations. As far as I understand, his preparation and warmup for his relief appearances has been handled the exact same way as in his starting appearances. He's not inheriting baserunners, instead he comes in with the bases empty at the start of an inning.

Perhaps he perceives it differently, but his routine hasn't changed, he hasn't been asked to respond to a different set of circumstances and he's known heading into the game that he'll be used each time.

So, in this case, I don't see a difference between starting and relieving from an objective standpoint (again, Homer's subjective view might be different, but that's pure specuation based on nothing). Seems to me the Reds have tried to use in relief after some of his meatier workload outings and that his struggles could just as easily be the result of fatigue. We don't really know. What we do know is he's been inconsistent and that's kept his ERA and WHIP high.

A kid like Bailey could be turning a corner every time he takes the mound, but until I can look at a solid month or two or work and not have to excuse away the blemishes I'm going to resist giving him credit for having turned any corners. What I'm resisting is interpreting every positive outing as a trend when he's still offering up too many shaky outings in the mix. BTW, that's a response to more of a general zeitgeist in the fanbase than anything I'm getting from you personally tr.

[M2]

Damn Skippy. I am a huge Pelland fan, and had him pegged to start for Dayton this year. I was stunned to see him in Sarasota. Pelland could have dominated the Midwest league, and really build on that for next year at Sarasota. As it is, I am hoping he repeats High A next year.

I'm guessing there's little chance of him repeating. The good news is that the SL is a pitcher's league. Then again, so is the FSL.

[traderumor]

I don't think there is any difference between starting and relieving in terms of the way Bailey's been used in those situations. As far as I understand, his preparation and warmup for his relief appearances has been handled the exact same way as in his starting appearances. He's not inheriting baserunners, instead he comes in with the bases empty at the start of an inning.

Perhaps he perceives it differently, but his routine hasn't changed, he hasn't been asked to respond to a different set of circumstances and he's known heading into the game that he'll be used each time.

So, in this case, I don't see a difference between starting and relieving from an objective standpoint (again, Homer's subjective view might be different, but that's pure specuation based on nothing). Seems to me the Reds have tried to use in relief after some of his meatier workload outings and that his struggles could just as easily be the result of fatigue. We don't really know. What we do know is he's been inconsistent and that's kept his ERA and WHIP high.

A kid like Bailey could be turning a corner every time he takes the mound, but until I can look at a solid month or two or work and not have to excuse away the blemishes I'm going to resist giving him credit for having turned any corners. What I'm resisting is interpreting every positive outing as a trend when he's still offering up too many shaky outings in the mix. BTW, that's a response to more of a general zeitgeist in the fanbase than anything I'm getting from you personally tr.

You don't want him to succeed because you were against the Reds drafting him. :

[lollipopcurve]

You don't want him to succeed because you were against the Reds drafting him.

Well, I doubt this is true of M2, though I think he's been entirely too critical of Homer so far.

There's more hot air on this board on draft day than on any other. I was just checking out the archived thread for this year's draft. You'd think the Reds had drafted a bunch of 8th graders.

[traderumor]

Well, I doubt this is true of M2, though I think he's been entirely too critical of Homer so far.

There's more hot air on this board on draft day than on any other. I was just checking out the archived thread for this year's draft. You'd think the Reds had drafted a bunch of 8th graders.

I know its not true of him, just taking a jab because I've seen that accusation whenever someone critiques a draft pick and continues to have reservations about a player afterwards. Same thing happens on a trade or a free agent signing. If the word at acquisition is that the guy stinks and then he ends up stinking, its because the folks that said he stinks want him to fail.

[M2]

Well, I doubt this is true of M2, though I think he's been entirely too critical of Homer so far.

His performance is what it is, not very good with some extremely encouraging outliers.

That's not criticism, it's a recognition of what he's done and where he's at.

[lollipopcurve]

it's a recognition of what he's done and where he's at.

It's one person's take on what he's done -- using one person's selected stats. There are other stats that show strong consistent performance (the low BA against, the low HRs against, the high K rate).

You've also remarked, M2, that Homer would be out of baseball in 5 years -- working for Orvis or something. I wouldn't pretend you've been Mr. Objective.

[cincyinco]

It's being 19 and inconsistent. He's trying to find the feel for throwing the breaking ball for strikes. Looking at power pitchers early in their minor league career he is getting hit at about the same range as Zambrano or Burnett were. If he was a control pitcher I'd be more than alarmed.

I think people seem to forget that Homer Bailey is just 19 years old. He's a kid. This isn't highschool baseball. This is professional ball. He's going to get his licks. But, god willing, he's going to learn, make adjustments, and put it together. I think the critisism of Bailey is far too harsh. Cut the kid a little slack. This is year 1 in all reality.

I agree that he should NOT be in AA next year. High A would be fantastic. Let him log some innings there. Lets see how he fairs. Lets see if he can make the adjustments - and I wholeheartedly believe he can. Year 1 doesn't mean much. Year two will be much more telling about his abilities.

Here are some important things that should indicate future success, as long as the ratios remain strong:

116K in 97.0IP.
84H in 97.0IP.
5HR in 97.0IP.

Its the 56BB that is killing his WHIP. A 19 year old is likely to strugle with his command, while he works on improving his secondary offerings. \

So let me ask you, do these numbers suck?

4.39ERA, 145.2IP, 118H, 73BB, 176K?

ERA isn't stellar, just like Homer. Walks are not stellar, just like Homer. But the other periphrials are there. The above stats belong to Matt Cain, arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball not named Felix Hernandez or Francisco Liriano. I'm not saying Homer is in Cain's class. I'm not saying he ever will be. I'm just pointing out that its not uncommong for youngsters to struggle. That doesn't mean the talent isn't there.

[M2]

It's one person's take on what he's done -- using one person's selected stats. There are other stats that show strong consistent performance (the low BA against, the low HRs against, the high K rate).

You've also remarked, M2, that Homer would be out of baseball in 5 years -- working for Orvis or something. I wouldn't pretend you've been Mr. Objective.

Yeah, I've got some attitude questions about the kid. My hope is it's a result of him being young and not an irretrievable butthead. Though let's pretend that I was being figurative and not literal when making the Orvis crack ... because I was (and I suspect you know that).

And ERA and WHIP aren't my selected stats. They're the measures of how many runs he allows and how many runners he allows on base. They're the fundamental measuring sticks of pitching performance. I'd have used OPS against, but I don't know where to find that for minor leaguers. You're the one using secondary measures to paint a ridiculously inaccurate picture.

Secondary measures are just that: secondary. They may be important road signs. Like I said, those numbers are extremely encouraging, but the bottom line is that a 4.36 ERA and 1.44 WHIP won't take you very far. "Strong consistent performance" doesn't work on a cafeteria model. If you want to claim a guy has strong, consistent performance then you'd better be able to show it all the way across the board and not be in a position where you're trying to run a shell game on core measurements like ERA and WHIP. That's bogus.

[lollipopcurve]

You're the one using secondary measures to paint a ridiculously inaccurate picture.

What is the ridiculously inaccurate picture? I've made no claims other than that Homer has had a good year -- based on what I consider to be important numbers for a power pitcher -- and that there's reason to be encouraged. I've also said he shouldn't be rushed to the majors.

I have said Homer needs to work on his command. That's certainly forgiveable, at least in my view, for a power pitching 19 year old who has needed little more than one pitch for years.

Again -- what's ridiculously inaccurate about ANYTHING I've said about Bailey. You won't find it.

You said he'd be out of baseball in 5 years. Nothing figurative about that.

[M2]

I think people seem to forget that Homer Bailey is just 19 years old.

Actually it's the thing that concerns me most about him. It's nice that he's in Low A and not getting slaughtered at such a young, but 19-year-old arms are about as stable as nitro.

So my main goal for Homer Bailey, due to his age, is that he stay healthy. He's done that so far. If he can do it three more years, I'll breathe a lot easier.

So let me ask you, do these numbers suck?

4.39ERA, 145.2IP, 118H, 73BB, 176K?

Cain's also surrendered 22 HR. IMO he's got no business being where he is (AAA) and you'll probably see him tumble down the BA top prospects list a bit as a result. So the numbers don't suck, but they aren't good either.

Also, Cain's a bad guy to bring up in a discussion about Homer Bailey. Through age 19 Cain had a 2.71 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 252 professional IP as a #25 overall draft pick with most of his work coming in High A and AA. Bailey's a #7 overall pick pitching far worse in Low A. If Homer were having something like Cain's 2004 season, we'd have people speculating on just how Cy Youngs he'll win.

[cincyinco]

Actually it's the thing that concerns me most about him. It's nice that he's in Low A and not getting slaughtered at such a young, but 19-year-old arms are about as stable as nitro.

So my main goal for Homer Bailey, due to his age, is that he stay healthy. He's done that so far. If he can do it three more years, I'll breathe a lot easier.

Cain's also surrendered 22 HR. IMO he's got no business being where he is (AAA) and you'll probably see him tumble down the BA top prospects list a bit as a result. So the numbers don't suck, but they aren't good either.

Also, Cain's a bad guy to bring up in a discussion about Homer Bailey. Through age 19 Cain had a 2.71 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 252 professional IP as a #25 overall draft pick with most of his work coming in High A and AA. Bailey's a #7 overall pick pitching far worse in Low A. If Homer were having something like Cain's 2004 season, we'd have people speculating on just how Cy Youngs he'll win.

Cain and Homer are both capable pitchers of making adjustments. My point was too not compare the two's abilities. I was simply trying to show that young power pitchers often struggle with command. Take a deep breathe M2.. Relax. I respect your opinion on baseball matters very much, but to me you come across as having an axe to grind with Homer. Why the hate?

[lollipopcurve]

we'd have people speculating on just how Cy Youngs he'll win.

Again, you're blatantly misrepresenting your opposition here, M2. No one is making claims about what Bailey will do for the Reds -- we're saying he's a real good prospect. That's it. If you disagree with that, OK -- but I haven't heard you say that, yet.