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Thread: Strong outing by Homer Bailey tonight

  1. #16
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Strong outing by Homer Bailey tonight

    Bailey in AA once again raises the value question.

    One of the purposes of a farm system is to create player value for use in trades. Like having a healthy nest egg to fall back on, it's good to have even if you don't use it.

    The Reds consistently undermine their player value with overpromotions. Bailey's been a fairly poor pitcher in the Midwest League this season. Sure, he has the potential to get better in a flash, but right now he's a kid with spotty control and a lot to learn.

    Homer Bailey may or may not pitch in the majors. He may or may not pitch well in the majors. He may or may not pitch well in the majors for the Reds. No one knows.

    So while you're figuring it out, how about putting him in a position to put up some eye-popping numbers?

    Case in point, Tyler Pelland. He's 5-6, 4.15, 93.1 IP (which is awfully low), 1.63 WHIP and too easy to hit in High A. He does have a nifty K rate, but if this is going to what you get from him then he's really not much of a prospect.

    Had he been placed in Dayton he probably would have double-digit wins, a tiny ERA, solid-to-gaudy peripherals. Had the Reds allowed Tyler Pelland to post a big season the market perception of him would be a lot more positive and the franchise would have more options as a result of it.
    Last edited by M2; 08-26-2005 at 11:05 AM.
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  3. #17
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    Re: Strong outing by Homer Bailey tonight

    Bailey's been a fairly poor pitcher in the Midwest League this season.
    Opponent batting average of .235. 113 Ks in 97 innings. 5 HRs in 97 innings. 19 years old.

    Do you really think other teams look at Homer as "fairly poor"?

    They'd have to be blind.
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  4. #18
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    Re: Strong outing by Homer Bailey tonight

    I think that is an encouraging aspect about the future. Baliey, Germano and Ramirez all throw strikes consistently. All three are likely to be in the Reds plans for the furture.

    It looks like only Bailey may have the kind of fastball that can put batters away.

  5. #19
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    Re: Strong outing by Homer Bailey tonight

    Baliey, Germano and Ramirez all throw strikes consistently. All three are likely to be in the Reds plans for the furture
    Homer's problem has been control. 50+ walks in 90+ innings. I'm sure it's an area where he needs to improve, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's had problems getting called strikes on his hammer curve.
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  6. #20
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    Re: Strong outing by Homer Bailey tonight

    One impressive thing about Bailey is he has gained velocity on his fastball as the year has gone on. I have seem him start 3 times. A few months ago he threw upper 80s to low 90s and last night he was up to the mid 90s. He also has a good changeup he throws in the upper 70s that is a good strikeout pitch for him.

  7. #21
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    Re: Strong outing by Homer Bailey tonight

    Quote Originally Posted by OSURedLeg
    O'Brien is pretty conservative with promotions.
    I don't think O'Brien is as conservative as you think. After all, he did start three eighteen year old pitchers in Dayton this season: Homer Bailey, Philippe Valiquette, and Rafael Gonzalez, two of which totally bombed and were sent to Billings.

    Tyler Pelland took a same path to what Valiquette and Gonzalez. He too was overagressively promoted last season and ended up being shell-shocked at Dayton before being demoted to Billings. Instead of giving him a second go around in the MWL, they again agressively promoted him to the Florida State League.

    O'Brien is a bit agressive with young pitchers. Be patient with them. Let them dominate a level and gain confidence.
    Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 08-26-2005 at 11:30 AM.
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  8. #22
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    Re: Strong outing by Homer Bailey tonight

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
    Opponent batting average of .235. 113 Ks in 97 innings. 5 HRs in 97 innings. 19 years old.

    Do you really think other teams look at Homer as "fairly poor"?

    They'd have to be blind.
    4.36 ERA, 1.44 WHIP while being babied. BTW, I've got no problem with the babying, but additional fatigue isn't going to help those numbers (which leads to a side theory on his bullpen struggles, he's not having trouble pitching in relief - it's not like he's not being given proper warmup time or anything like that - he's not rebounding well from his longer starts).

    So, yeah, that's fairly poor. If that's what he does for his career, he's a bust. Like I said, he's got the potential to turn it around in a flash, but this is NOT quality performance or anything like it. It's a work in progress.

    When the MW All-League Team gets announced, Bailey won't get an ounce of consideration for it and his performance will cause him to place lower on league and overall prospects list. I imagine there's going to be a lot jawing at BA as to whether he belongs on its Top 100 list in front of piles of guys who outperformed him.

    Homer still gives other teams plenty to dream on, so he's got value, but at some juncture he'll have to produce good numbers across the board. That's why you don't stick him in AA next season. You're blurring what he is with what he might be (and what you want him to be). Put him in position to rack up the numbers and you don't have to make the case that he'll be a lot better than what he's doing at the moment. Make his value explicit.
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  9. #23
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    Re: Strong outing by Homer Bailey tonight

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine
    Powell recommended Bailey for a promotion to Class AA next season. To that I say, heck no! Bailey should be in high A next season. Do not rush him, especially considering he hasn't exactly dominated the Midwest League.



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  10. #24
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    Re: Strong outing by Homer Bailey tonight

    While Bailey's portfolio for the entire year is unimpressive, there have been signs that he has turned a corner in the second half, esp. his last three starts. It is something to write home about, whereas the first part of the year he was busting. Hopefully he can carry that momentum to Sarasota next year.
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  11. #25
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    Re: Strong outing by Homer Bailey tonight

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor
    While Bailey's portfolio for the entire year is unimpressive, there have been signs that he has turned a corner in the second half, esp. his last three starts. It is something to write home about, whereas the first part of the year he was busting. Hopefully he can carry that momentum to Sarasota next year.
    Homer finished the first half of the MWL season with a 4.07 ERA. It's actually risen in the second half.
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  12. #26
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    Re: Strong outing by Homer Bailey tonight

    It's being 19 and inconsistent. He's trying to find the feel for throwing the breaking ball for strikes. Looking at power pitchers early in their minor league career he is getting hit at about the same range as Zambrano or Burnett were. If he was a control pitcher I'd be more than alarmed.
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  13. #27
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    Re: Strong outing by Homer Bailey tonight

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    4.36 ERA, 1.44 WHIP while being babied. BTW, I've got no problem with the babying, but additional fatigue isn't going to help those numbers (which leads to a side theory on his bullpen struggles, he's not having trouble pitching in relief - it's not like he's not being given proper warmup time or anything like that - he's not rebounding well from his longer starts).

    So, yeah, that's fairly poor. If that's what he does for his career, he's a bust. Like I said, he's got the potential to turn it around in a flash, but this is NOT quality performance or anything like it. It's a work in progress.

    When the MW All-League Team gets announced, Bailey won't get an ounce of consideration for it and his performance will cause him to place lower on league and overall prospects list. I imagine there's going to be a lot jawing at BA as to whether he belongs on its Top 100 list in front of piles of guys who outperformed him.

    Homer still gives other teams plenty to dream on, so he's got value, but at some juncture he'll have to produce good numbers across the board. That's why you don't stick him in AA next season. You're blurring what he is with what he might be (and what you want him to be). Put him in position to rack up the numbers and you don't have to make the case that he'll be a lot better than what he's doing at the moment. Make his value explicit.
    I'll give 'em a pass on the ERA due to crap fielding, but the guy litters the diamond with runners and he's really only a decent K pitcher.

  14. #28
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Strong outing by Homer Bailey tonight

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    Homer finished the first half of the MWL season with a 4.07 ERA. It's actually risen in the second half.
    Does that negate the last three starts I specifically referred to? Also, you'll notice that there are two relief appearances of 3 runs and 4 runs in two inning stints apiece. Following that 6 runs over 2 IP debacle (which half that hits, I'm not sure), Bailey has had five starts, covering 24 IP, 4 R, 3 ER, 31 Ks, 7 BB, 17 H, 0 HRs. I think that is what we are looking for out of him and is encouraging that it is occurring in the later part of the year.

    EDIT--What that screams to me is that David needs to be removed from the tandem rotation. He is apparently a square peg in relief.
    Last edited by traderumor; 08-26-2005 at 12:53 PM.
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  15. #29
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    Re: Strong outing by Homer Bailey tonight

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor
    Does that negate the last three starts I specifically referred to? Also, you'll notice that there are two relief appearances of 3 runs and 4 runs in two inning stints apiece. Following that 6 runs over 2 IP debacle (which half that hits, I'm not sure), Bailey has had five starts, covering 24 IP, 4 R, 3 ER, 31 Ks, 7 BB, 17 H, 0 HRs. I think that is what we are looking for out of him and is encouraging that it is occurring in the later part of the year.

    EDIT--What that screams to me is that David needs to be removed from the tandem rotation. He is apparently a square peg in relief.
    I don't see how you can responsibly back those relief appearances out of the mix. That's still Homer Bailey on the mound. IIRC, he hasn't been asked to come in mid-inning at any time. So he gets a full warmup on his normal rest and pitches under pretty much the same circumstances as we would a start. That counts in my book.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric
    It's being 19 and inconsistent. He's trying to find the feel for throwing the breaking ball for strikes. Looking at power pitchers early in their minor league career he is getting hit at about the same range as Zambrano or Burnett were. If he was a control pitcher I'd be more than alarmed.
    Sure, but there's plenty of other guys, power pitchers in fact, who manage to be 19 and consistent. Doesn't mean that Bailey won't find the strikezone in the future or that he'll be a lesser pitcher down the road, just that UNTIL HE GAINS CONSISTENCY AND PERFORMS BETTER ON A CONSISTENT BASIS HIS OVERALL VALUE WILL BE LESS THAN IT COULD BE. That's why I don't want to see an aggressive push with Homer. The Reds need to let his performance catch up to his promise.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  16. #30
    Member Cedric's Avatar
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    Re: Strong outing by Homer Bailey tonight

    I agree on that.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.


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