No miss. He was given zero shot.
No miss. He was given zero shot.
This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.
Suuuure he was. Why people couldn't stop themselves from stating it was an absolute certainty that he'd never make it.Originally Posted by Cedric
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Yeah it was a joke I guess. I guess you didn't mean anything about the post now.
This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.
Heck, I ain't shy: I'd never, ever draft a high school pitcher. Ever. Pi$$in' away good money.
Bailey'll be lucky to scrounge a relief career, IMO.
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
You'd be the only gm ever.
This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.
If you dont believe the vast majority here believe that we made a huge mistake by taking a HS arm, then I dont know.. maybe we're reading two different boards? I dont have the time to dig up threads, because I'm leaving from work in 5 minutes, but this has been my perception. Everyone here is sabremetrics happy(nothing wrong with that), and on the college player being drafted bandwagon.
My main point stands. I would not call Homer's first season a failure. I wouldn't call it a stand out season either. I would call it a good season though, simply for the fact I believe Homer has learned how to pitch better, and that hes shown he can make adjustments. And I believe he'll continue to make adjustments.
You know, I remember when a lot of reds fans were down on our LF after he had a horrible horrible 1st full season. Or was it the sophmore season? In any case, that is my point. Homer is a kid. He's going to hit bumps in the road on his journey to becoming a pitcher. Its how he handles the adversity that will tell what kind of player he will be. I think he'll handle the adversity and become a good pitcher. And I wont be swayed by others vocal pessimism. Instead, I'll wait for Bailey to prove to me he wont make it.
Thanks.
"I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me."
-Hunter S. Thompson
I call Homer's first season a poor season, because it's been a a poor season. Failure is your word and something I've yet to see anyone use in conjunction with Bailey.
Speaking of shifting terms, what I took issue with was "people gave up on him the moment he was drafted because he wasn't a 'college arm'. To them, a high school arm means automatic failure." That's worlds different from thinking it's a grandiose mistake for a team in the Reds' situation to be spending a #7 overall pick on a HS arm who isn't primed to set the world on fire from the get-go (which Homer wasn't).
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Ced, that's really a drastic overgeneralization.
What was said is that if you take a High School arm in the top 10 of a draft, and that arm isn't absolutely the best overall pitcher in the draft, your chances of him ever turning into an Ace-level SP are nearly zero.
Not coincidentally, the same people telling folks that Adam Dunn was going to be a monster player are the same folks who are noting their disappointment with the over-drafting and subsequent minor league performance of one David Bailey.
See, drafting Homer Bailey was a bad risk. I don't need Homer Bailey to fail in order to know that it was a bad risk because it was a bad risk the moment the pick was made. Oh, and Homer Bailey can succeed (Lord, I hope so) and it will still have been a poor decision that flew in the face of probability.
I don't consider myself at all pessimistic in this matter. That's the reality.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
I didn't mean to say that everyone that disagreed with the pick gave him zero shot. I apologize if it sounds that way. I was stating that M2 gave him zero shot.
This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.
Pessimism on this board can mean a lot of things. Sometimes it means that you've refused to believe everything the Reds do is sunshine and light. It can mean you've employed reasonable skepticism in a discussion. It can mean you've failed to use the proper amount of happy hyperbole in discussing a given move or player. It can mean you've refused to ignore history and/or probability.
It almost never means pessimism and I'm learning to take it as a high compliment.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Which was dopey and wrong.
But, for the record, here's what I said about Bailey right before the Reds drafted him: "Maybe Homer Bailey turns out to be a superstar, but as of right now he's just a HS pitcher. The Reds can't afford to blow another high pick on one of those - Gruler, Sowers, Howington (none of whom are pitching live games for the Reds at this moment)."
Also, in response to you in that 2004 draft thread, I said: "No one's questioning that he's talented, it's a question of whether he'll be one of the few at his current level of advancement to do anything with that talent."
Last edited by M2; 08-26-2005 at 09:34 PM.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
First off you'd have to be a total idiot to not be pessimistic about drafting a high school pitcher. I doubt it was the right pick, I had no idea I was arguing the other point. My arguement was that he still deserves a shot, that's my only point.
I misunderstood your earlier quotes on Bailey then. I apologize.
This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.
Just another little chestnut I dug up from that 2004 draft thread.
During the buildup to the draft, someone brought up that eight of the top 23 picks in the BA top 100 were drafted as HS pitchers. They were:
BBA Top 25-
4.Edwin Jackson
8.Greg Miller
12.Scott Kazmir
13.Adam Loewen
14.Zack Grienke
17.Cole Hamels
18.Dustin McGowan
23.Gavin Floyd
Jackson and Floyd turned into pinatas in AAA. Greinke's getting roughed up in the majors. Miller's just back after losing nearly two years to injury. McGowan also lost a season and a half and now he's in Toronto and getting pelted. Loewen's got a 4.33 ERA in High A. Kazmir's holding his own in the majors, making him the only one of this Magnificent Seven to be thriving at the moment (though he's awfully Rich Ankielish - electric stuff, but sooner or later those baserunners are going to catch up with him).
Of course, you can play this game with the top rated HS arms on practically every BA top 100 list. It's the one thing BA never learns. It's just interesting to see how quickly these things unravel.
On the bright side for Reds fans, it means the HS arms that do make it (and some do) aren't necessarily the top tier guys. So if Homer drops down or off the list for a few seasons it doesn't mean he's a flop.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
At the time he was drafted, the hue and cry was that they'd taken a silly risk in drafting a highschooler.
That was it.
I highly doubt that anyone's rooting against him, or being overly harsh about his performance.
He hasn't been bad, but he's only kinda sorta doing well, and that's okay. He's nineteen, he's got two very nice pitches, he's strung together some nice outings.
I'm just not ready to christen him the crowned jewel of the organization just yet.
I got all excited about Pauly and Gardner. In fact, I was feeling like they both were on the fast track to bringing the club's pitching doldrums to an end.
Then they both went under the knife, and it looks like Gardner's gone the way of Chris Gruler, and who knows what's really going on with Pauly....And both of those guys were College arms.
I've just decided to take any and all success by the farmhand pitchers with a grain of salt. I'm not gonna get too high or too low on a guy because it's not worth it to me.
Doesn't mean I won't be training a keen eye on David Bailey, doesn't mean I'm not interested in Travis Wood's insofar otherworldly performance.
I'm just sick of pinning hopes on pitchers. They're attrition rates are just too high.
It's not a knock on any of them, and daggone it, I hope like heck that Bailey defies what has become convention in the Reds organization.
I'm not all giddy, but I sure as heck ain't giving up on him.
"Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?" ~ Jim Bouton
That's pretty good BS. I'm impressed. Since one good turn deserves another, I will refer you to Harry G. Frankfurt's excellent short book "On Bullsh**" (Princeton Press - 2005). This is a book by a Princeton professor emeritus of moral philosophy which discusses the need for a theory of bullsh**.
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