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Thread: 2005-2006 (Estimated) Reds Payroll

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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    2005-2006 (Estimated) Reds Payroll

    Now that the season is winding down, talk turns to what payroll will be for next season. Now I'm in the dark as much as anyone with regards on what the Reds will do next year but what I'm attempting to do with this thread is basically show what the 2006 payroll could be if certain players aren't re-signed.

    This is broken down into 5 sections: 1. Arbitration eligible players (players who have 3-6 years in the big leagues) 2. Arbitration ineligible players (Players with less than 3 years in the majors. 3. Salary increases (players who have over 6 years service time and are signed through next season and will receive a raise for sure) 4. Salary decreases (players with over 6 years service time who can be free agents) 5. No changes in salary (Players who are signed through next season who will receive the same salary)

    The 2006 salaries for the arbitration eligible and ineligible players are guesstimates and shouldn't really be too far off in what they will make in reality. There are a lot of players in the arbitration ineligible area and obviously all those guys didn't make what it says they did this year nor will they make what I estimate them to make in 06 because a lot of them will be in the minors or released. The $320K figure is an estimate of what will be the minimum salary next season.

    Most of these numbers are from JaxRed's site. It's also crosschecked with USA Today's figures. The only salaries that I'll differ on are Jr.'s and Milton's. No matter how you slice it, the Reds are laying out $12.5M a year for Jr. And Milton's salary for this year includes his bonus. Ryan Freel and Ryan Wagner may be Super 2s as far as arbitration eligibility goes. But, until I know for sure I'm listing them in the arbitration ineligible area. Besides, even if they are arbitration eligible, I doubt they will make a lot more than I have them making next year. All players included either are or were on the 40 man roster at one time or another this year. Salary estimates for 2006 are in red Let me know if you have any questions or if you think the figures are wrong.

    Code:
    Arbitration Eligible     2005 Salary   2006 Salary
    Adam	Dunn             4,600,000     7,000,000
    Aaron	Harang             440,000       800,000
    D'Angelo Jimenez         2,875,000             0
    Austin	Kearns             930,000     1,500,000
    Jason	LaRue            3,000,000     5,000,000
    Felipe	Lopez              415,000       750,000
    Wily Mo	Pena               440,000       750,000
    Javier	Valentin           450,000     1,250,000
    Ben	Weber              600,000             0
    TOTAL                   13,750,000    17,050,000
    			
    Arbitration Ineligible   2005 Salary   2006 Salary
    Matt	Belisle            315,896       320,000
    William	Bergolla           315,896       320,000
    Jung	Bong               340,000 	 345,000
    Chris	Booker             315,896       320,000
    Brandon	Claussen           320,000 	 400,000
    Todd	Coffey             315,896 	 350,000
    Chris	Denorfia           315,896 	 320,000
    Phil	Dumatrait                0 	 320,000
    Edwin	Encarnacion	   315,896 	 350,000
    Ryan	Freel	           405,000 	 600,000
    Justin 	Germano	                 0 	 320,000
    Josh	Hancock	           322,000 	 330,000
    Aaron	Holbert	           315,896 	 320,000
    Luke	Hudson	           318,000    	 320,000
    Randy	Keisler	           315,896 	 320,000
    Ben	Kozlowski                0 	 320,000
    Bubba 	Nelson	                 0 	 320,000
    Ray	Olmedo	           315,896 	 320,000
    Miguel	Perez	           315,896 	       0
    Elizardo Ramirez	   315,896       320,000
    Dane	Sardinha	   450,000       500,000
    Brian	Shackelford        315,896 	 340,000
    Allan	Simpson	           315,896 	 320,000
    Jason	Standridge         315,896  	 320,000
    Joe	Valentine          315,896 	 320,000
    Ryan	Wagner             380,000 	 420,000
    TOTAL		         7,273,440     8,755,000
    			
    Salary Increases         2005 Salary   2006 Salary
    Sean	Casey            7,800,000     8,500,000
    Kent	Mercker          1,250,000     1,350,000
    David	Weathers         1,250,000     1,250,000
    Paul	Wilson           3,600,000     3,750,000
    TOTALS                  13,900,000    14,850,000
    			
    Salary Decreases         2005 Salary   2006 Salary
    Rich	Aurilia            600,000             0
    Jacob	Cruz               500,000             0
    Danny	Graves           6,250,000             0
    Aaron	Holbert            315,896             0
    Luis	Lopez              315,896             0
    Anderson Machado           315,896             0
    Ramon	Ortiz            3,550,000             0
    Joe	Randa            2,150,000             0
    Jason	Romano             315,896             0
    Ricky	Stone              315,896             0
    TOTAL		        14,629,480             0
    			
    No Changes In Salary	 2005 Salary   2006 Salary
    Ken	Griffey, Jr.	12,500,000    12,500,000 
    Eric	Milton           8,000,000     8,000,000 
    TOTAL		        20,500,000    20,500,000
    			
    GRAND TOTAL		70,052,920    61,155,000
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    HS Athletic Director alexad's Avatar
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    Re: 2005-2006 (Estimated) Reds Payroll

    If LaRue is getting 5 millions, than I would hope Dunn gets more than 7?
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    Member harangatang's Avatar
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    Re: 2005-2006 (Estimated) Reds Payroll

    If Harang is only getting 800,000 next year that's quite a steal.

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    Re: 2005-2006 (Estimated) Reds Payroll

    Who cares what the payroll is. Under this management it won't be used right.

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    Re: 2005-2006 (Estimated) Reds Payroll

    I expect it near the 63 level.
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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: 2005-2006 (Estimated) Reds Payroll

    Quote Originally Posted by alexad
    If LaRue is getting 5 millions, than I would hope Dunn gets more than 7?
    The difference is that LaRue is in his last year of arbitration and is making $3M. He can compare himself to any catcher out there. He would get a $2M raise which is pretty good for a catcher who has only played part time since the ASB. Dunn is a 2nd year arb eligible guy and he can really only compare himself to other players at his position in their 2nd year of arbitration eligibility and he's getting at least $7M, IMO. I doubt he'd make more than that if they settle. Even if he does it'd only be about a million or so more. And that wouldn't affect the bottom line that much. (Dunn could potentially compare himself to guys with 6 years service time or over but he probably won't unless he wants to play hardball.)
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    Re: 2005-2006 (Estimated) Reds Payroll

    I wouldnt be surprised if LaRue was non-tendered or traded before December. JV looked good enough to have back there for than $1.2 mil. Would we pay our catchers $6.2 million?? I hope not. Personally, I dont believe LaRue is worth a dime more than $3 mil. He may be good compared to other catchers in the league, but if we can get equal production at the plate if not better and save 3.8 mil, then this team has to do that.

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    15 game winner Danny Serafini's Avatar
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    Re: 2005-2006 (Estimated) Reds Payroll

    Valentin can't be counted on as a full time catcher. He hardly sees the field against lefties, which is a good thing since he's hitting .194 against them. He's had a heck of a year, but it's come completely out of nowhere, and who knows if he can do it again. Plus LaRue's a better fielder. Valentin makes a nice backup, but bite the bullet and give LaRue his money.

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    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: 2005-2006 (Estimated) Reds Payroll

    I look for that to rise as we reach 2006. You can bet that Dunn or Kearns or Pena will be shopped heavily--mostly Pena and Kearns and that they will try to sign another pitcher, but I don't expect it to go over 70 million.

    And I do look for Rich Aurilia to be back, much to the chagrin of many RedZoners. And as for Milton? Can you say "give away." They'll be trying (but we'll be paying the tab).
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    Re: 2005-2006 (Estimated) Reds Payroll

    Thank Chip. That's a great post.

    I agree with VWredsfan, there is a mutual option with Rich A. I have a feeling that it's going to be exercised.

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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: 2005-2006 (Estimated) Reds Payroll

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs
    Thank Chip. That's a great post.

    I agree with VWredsfan, there is a mutual option with Rich A. I have a feeling that it's going to be exercised.
    Thanks. I get the feeling that Narron will insist on RA coming back if he's going to be manager next year. It may be a deal breaker. However, we must remember that it's a mutual option. If Rich doesn't want to come back he doesn't have to even if the Reds want him back. He may think he'll get a better deal someplace else. I haven't heard DanO say anything lately but from what he's said previously it sounds like he doesn't want him to come back. He's probably sick of RA complaining about playing time and such.
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    Re: 2005-2006 (Estimated) Reds Payroll

    "He may think he'll get a better deal someplace else. I haven't heard DanO say anything lately but from what he's said previously it sounds like he doesn't want him to come back. He's probably sick of RA complaining about playing time and such."

    It's just me, but I don't think so.
    I think the reason DanO didn't deal Weathers and Merker was because DanO thought they could contribute next year.

    I think it may be the reason DanO didn't deal RA may be that DanO thinks that RA can contribute and the financial terms on that option are such that RA will pick it up.

    Hey, I could be wrong....I'm not suggesting it's a good or bad course of action....it's just what I think is going on.

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    Re: 2005-2006 (Estimated) Reds Payroll

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs
    "He may think he'll get a better deal someplace else. I haven't heard DanO say anything lately but from what he's said previously it sounds like he doesn't want him to come back. He's probably sick of RA complaining about playing time and such."

    It's just me, but I don't think so.
    I think the reason DanO didn't deal Weathers and Merker was because DanO thought they could contribute next year.

    I think it may be the reason DanO didn't deal RA may be that DanO thinks that RA can contribute and the financial terms on that option are such that RA will pick it up.

    Hey, I could be wrong....I'm not suggesting it's a good or bad course of action....it's just what I think is going on.
    DanO didn't trade Weathers or Merker because he didn't have the authority besides your obvious claim.

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    Re: 2005-2006 (Estimated) Reds Payroll

    I highly doubt you'll see both LaRue and Valentin wearing Reds uniforms next year. This club is not going to spend upwards of $8-9 million on its catchers.

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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: 2005-2006 (Estimated) Reds Payroll

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R
    Now that the season is winding down, talk turns to what payroll will be for next season. Now I'm in the dark as much as anyone with regards on what the Reds will do next year but what I'm attempting to do with this thread is basically show what the 2006 payroll could be if certain players aren't re-signed.

    This is broken down into 5 sections: 1. Arbitration eligible players (players who have 3-6 years in the big leagues) 2. Arbitration ineligible players (Players with less than 3 years in the majors. 3. Salary increases (players who have over 6 years service time and are signed through next season and will receive a raise for sure) 4. Salary decreases (players with over 6 years service time who can be free agents) 5. No changes in salary (Players who are signed through next season who will receive the same salary)

    The 2006 salaries for the arbitration eligible and ineligible players are guesstimates and shouldn't really be too far off in what they will make in reality. There are a lot of players in the arbitration ineligible area and obviously all those guys didn't make what it says they did this year nor will they make what I estimate them to make in 06 because a lot of them will be in the minors or released. The $320K figure is an estimate of what will be the minimum salary next season.

    Most of these numbers are from JaxRed's site. It's also crosschecked with USA Today's figures. The only salaries that I'll differ on are Jr.'s and Milton's. No matter how you slice it, the Reds are laying out $12.5M a year for Jr. And Milton's salary for this year includes his bonus. Ryan Freel and Ryan Wagner may be Super 2s as far as arbitration eligibility goes. But, until I know for sure I'm listing them in the arbitration ineligible area. Besides, even if they are arbitration eligible, I doubt they will make a lot more than I have them making next year. All players included either are or were on the 40 man roster at one time or another this year. Salary estimates for 2006 are in red Let me know if you have any questions or if you think the figures are wrong.
    Code:
    Arbitration Eligible     2005 Salary   2006 Salary
    Adam Dunn                4,600,000     7,000,000
    Aaron Harang               440,000       800,000
    D'Angelo Jimenez         2,875,000             0
    Austin Kearns              930,000     1,500,000
    Jason LaRue              3,000,000     5,000,000
    Felipe Lopez               415,000       750,000
    Wily Mo Pena               440,000       750,000
    Javier Valentin            450,000     1,250,000
    Ben Weber                  600,000             0
    TOTAL                   13,750,000    17,050,000


    I thought I'd bring this back up again to show the difference in what I projected these arbitration eligible players would get next year. As you can see I was pretty close on some but way off on others. I didn't want to post the whole list because that area isn't where the big salary increases are at. Basically all that was was a wash. Take out Casey's, and Ortiz' and D'Lo's salaries and add Aurilia's, Womack's and Williams. Might even save a bit.

    Salary estimates for 2006 are in red Let me know if you have any questions or if you think the figures are wrong.

    Code:
    Arbitration Eligible     2005 Salary   2006 Salary
    Adam Dunn               4,600,000     8,950,000
    Aaron Harang              440,000     2,350,000
    D'Angelo Jimenez        2,875,000             0
    Austin Kearns             930,000     1,850,000
    Jason LaRue             3,000,000     3,900,000
    Felipe Lopez              415,000     3,000,000
    Wily Mo Pena              440,000     1,250,000
    Javier Valentin           450,000     1,150,000
    Ben Weber                 600,000             0
    Ryan Freel                405,000     1,300,000
    TOTAL                  13,750,000    23,750,000


    So according to these figures, payroll should be in about the mid 60s this coming year even if Lopez and Dunn get what they are asking for. Down a bit from last year but not too much.
    Last edited by Chip R; 01-18-2006 at 03:36 PM.
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