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Thread: Let the Sweet Lou rumors begin....

  1. #46
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Let the Sweet Lou rumors begin....

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou
    And a worse defense.
    Ah yes. The magic that was Kal Daniels. The 80's answer to Wily Mo Pena but with less speed and power.
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  3. #47
    Stats are misleading!
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    Re: Let the Sweet Lou rumors begin....

    Do you guys really believe that just going out and throwing top money at a top tier free agent pitcher or two is going to fix this team?!?

    Your kidding right?

    Do you really mean to tell me that you honestly believe that bringing in a Cy Young winner is going to have a CY Young season for the Reds?!?

    So, what you are saying is, that these "magical" mystical pitchers on other teams NEVER have to rely on their defense to make some plays behind them?

    They just strike out everybody?!? All 27 batters?

    Never have to have a SS, or CF make some pretty spectacular plays at critical, clutch, pivotal points of a game to help them win?

    Okay lets say you bring in, I don't know, Roger Clemens.

    Let's say he averages out to 11 strikeouts a game (just for fun) that still leaves 16 outs your going to have to get some how, some way......

    And with Dunn, Jr (who has slowed down quite a bit, let's admit it), Lopez, Encarnacion, Kearns, Pena, LaRue, and whoever they plug in at second base, and the bench, you really, REALLY believe that these guys can defend a pitcher, ANY pitcher to a 20 win season?!?

    These are some of the worst defenders in all of baseball.

    The only player we have that is at least half way decent with the glove is Freel, followed by Casey.

    Let me tell you something, I have watched 9 different pitchers in my lifetime have 20+ win seasons, and they get their pitches put in play just as often as Ortiz, or Hudson, or Claussen or Milton the difference being the defense on those teams that help them win 20 games.

    Ever notice a guy can win 15-16-17 games one season, and turn around and win 7-8 the next?

    "Oh, there must be something wrong with the pitcher this season". Yeah, maybe, but more likely they lost some defensive ability somewhere (moved on to another team?) or somehow (great defenders do get hampered by injuries from time to time) that cost that pitcher those impressive numbers that would allow some GM to throw Millions of dollars at them.

    Okay, I am not naive by any stretch of the imagination, and I do realize that one of the primary factors that led to a complete meltdown of our pitching staff this season was the pitchers control problems.

    I mean, if the defense is set up for an 1-2 changeup inside to a right handed power hitter, and the pitcher misses completely and throws a 1-2 changeup, too hard, and down and over the outside corner SURE, that is going to affect the defensive alignments, but in NO WAY is this Reds team about to back up a quality pitcher and provide the kind of defense, and offense for that matter, that you guys seem to think they will.

    No way....

    I am not excusing the pitching staff for everything, but, no way do you put this season entirely on the shoulders of the pitchers.

    Look at the Astros of 05. Sure they had Roger Clemens, Andy Pettite, and Roy Oswalt.
    But the one thing that they had that nobody these days seems to put much of a premium on is they also had some really spectacular defense.

    And the White Sox too, especially the White Sox. I watched their entire season, well 110 games or so, and you can go on and on about the pitching, but, they got some absolutely spectacular defense from all 9 guys on the field, and I mean constantly.
    And at the most critical times too. Absolute highlight reels......

    And that's a fact.

    And I will tell you something else, you put Claussen or Ortiz on the Astros, or White Sox this past season, and they could easily have picked up another 7-8 wins!

    Maybe even have gotten Milton over .500.....

  4. #48
    Administrator Boss-Hog's Avatar
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    Re: Let the Sweet Lou rumors begin....

    Good luck finding a way to defense the three run gopher ball.

  5. #49
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Let the Sweet Lou rumors begin....

    Quote Originally Posted by Milezinni
    Maybe even have gotten Milton over .500.....
    Magic 8 Ball says...
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    Re: Let the Sweet Lou rumors begin....

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R
    But he did have John Franco.
    Did John Franco help the Reds win a World Championship? I think not!

  7. #51
    Stats are misleading!
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    Re: Let the Sweet Lou rumors begin....

    Okay?!?

    Are you guys really trying to tell me that, not in any instance, did you see the defense (SS, or 3b, or Dunn maybe?) that gave a team a 4th out to an inning, just BEFORE Milton, or Ortiz or Hudson gave up a homerun in that inning?!?

    Not once?

    Never did this defense allow a baserunner, forcing the pitcher into the stretch (maybe for the first time in the game) or distracting him, because of their limited range, limited arms, limited baseball sense, and limited playmaking ability?

    Thats total BS, because I saw quite a few of them myself. Sure, the numbers stack up as high ERA's and wins and losses against the pitcher but I know for a fact that some of the losses I saw I would put squarely on the shoulders of this horrible defense.

    And I am not just talking about obvious errors either.

    Despite what you guys might think is going on in the FO, they are not complete idiots.
    They see whats going on, they are just handcuffed into what they can realistically do to fix it.
    Especially with the pending sale of the team.

    And I know alot of you here don't want to hear that, but......

  8. #52
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Let the Sweet Lou rumors begin....

    Quote Originally Posted by Milezinni
    think is going on in the FO, they are not complete idiots.
    Just partial idiots, right?
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  9. #53
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Let the Sweet Lou rumors begin....

    Quote Originally Posted by Milezinni
    Okay?!?

    Are you guys really trying to tell me that, not in any instance, did you see the defense (SS, or 3b, or Dunn maybe?) that gave a team a 4th out to an inning, just BEFORE Milton, or Ortiz or Hudson gave up a homerun in that inning?!?

    Not once?

    Never did this defense allow a baserunner, forcing the pitcher into the stretch (maybe for the first time in the game) or distracting him, because of their limited range, limited arms, limited baseball sense, and limited playmaking ability?

    Thats total BS, because I saw quite a few of them myself. Sure, the numbers stack up as high ERA's and wins and losses against the pitcher but I know for a fact that some of the losses I saw I would put squarely on the shoulders of this horrible defense.

    And I am not just talking about obvious errors either.

    Despite what you guys might think is going on in the FO, they are not complete idiots.
    They see whats going on, they are just handcuffed into what they can realistically do to fix it.
    Especially with the pending sale of the team.

    And I know alot of you here don't want to hear that, but......
    How many Reds games did you see this past season?
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

  10. #54
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    Re: Let the Sweet Lou rumors begin....

    Quote Originally Posted by Milezinni
    Are you guys really trying to tell me that, not in any instance, did you see the defense (SS, or 3b, or Dunn maybe?) that gave a team a 4th out to an inning, just BEFORE Milton, or Ortiz or Hudson gave up a homerun in that inning?!?

    Not once?
    First of all, I don't think anyone ever said that it NEVER happened, just that it's not the primary source of trouble for the Reds pitching staff. But just for the heck of it, I looked into it a little further.

    Here is the breakdown for 2005 of home runs by the 3 pitchers you mentioned:

    Code:
                                                    w/ 2 out and                 
             Total    w/ Runners on    w/ 2 outs      runners on
             -----    -------------    ---------    -------------
    Milton      40               17           17                7
    Ortiz       34               16            5                3
    Hudson      14                7            6                5

    So, there are 15 instances of home runs (out of 88 total) surrendered by these 3 guys where you statement could hold true. How many really apply to it? Here are the game logs for each of the home runs:

    Eric Milton:
    Code:
                          Batter     Event
                          Before     Before
    Date      Opp         Homer      Homer        How scoring runner reached
    -------   ---------   ---------  -----------  --------------------------
    4/26/05	  Cubs	      Burnitz    Single       2-out single
    5/23/05	  Nationals   Schneider  Ground Out   1-out error by Lopez
    5/28/05	  Pirates     Bay        Fly out      No out single
    6/18/05	  Braves      Giles      Single       2-out single
    7/21/05	  Cubs        Hairston   Pop out      1-out single scores a runner
    8/05/05	  Marlins     Conine     Force out    1-out single
    5/18/05   Mets        Wright     Fly out      No out walk
    Ramon Ortiz:
    Code:
                          Batter     Event
                          Before     Before
    Date      Opp         Homer      Homer        How scoring runner reached
    -------   ---------   ---------  -----------  --------------------------
    9/21/05   Cardinals   Marquis    Ground out   No out single
    7/27/05   Dodgers     Kent       Double       1-out error by Lopez
    5/17/05   Mets        Wright     Fly out      1-out single
    Luke Hudson:
    Code:
                          Batter     Event
                          Before     Before
    Date      Opp         Homer      Homer        How scoring runner reached
    -------   ---------   ---------  -----------  --------------------------
    9/03/05   Braves      Laroach    Walk         No out single, big inning
    6/09/05   Devil Rays  Perez      Ground out   1-out walk
    7/01/05   Astros      Berkman    Single       No out single, 1-out HBP, 2-out walk
    7/19/05   Cubs        Burnitz    Walk         2-out double & walk
    9/09/05   Pirates     J. Wilson  Double       2-out single & double
    I've looked into the game logs in a little more detail than what I put here, but I would say the defense contributed to maybe 4 instances of giving extra outs to these three pitchers just before they gave up home runs. It's hard to tell at this point without re-watching the games, but I don't have that ability.

    Anyway, the ultimate point is not to list out all of these instances. That was just silly research that I did. The real point is that your contention that the defense was a major factor in the poor performance by the pitching staff doesn't hold that much water.
    That's not to say the defense shouldn't be improved, but only seven times this year did the Milton give up home runs with runners on and 2 outs. That's not even 20% of the home runs he surrendered. And even if every one of them was a result of a failure by the defense leading to extra outs, the guy makes $8 million a year. Isn't it reasonable to expect that he can get out of those types of situations every once in a while?
    "It is not who is right, but what is right, that is of importance."
    "Every great advance in natural knowledge has involved the absolute rejection of authority."
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  11. #55
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Let the Sweet Lou rumors begin....

    Quote Originally Posted by Milezinni
    I hate to start an argument, but I have to disagree with you there.

    I believe that this Reds team is alot WORSE than people realize. And this whole "the Reds are the #1 NL offense, just look at the numbers" just makes me laugh.

    You could put Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, and Johan Santanna out there in a Reds uni, I still don't believe they could take the wild card.
    If that somehow happened, the Reds would be by far the best team in baseball.

  12. #56
    The rest is drama. marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Let the Sweet Lou rumors begin....

    Unless, of course, you played the three in the outfield. Maybe that's what he meant.

    Anyway, seems from the Hot Stove League thread that the rumors (or at least the speculation) have definitely begun.

  13. #57
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Let the Sweet Lou rumors begin....

    Quote Originally Posted by TheGARB
    First of all, I don't think anyone ever said that it NEVER happened, just that it's not the primary source of trouble for the Reds pitching staff. But just for the heck of it, I looked into it a little further.

    Here is the breakdown for 2005 of home runs by the 3 pitchers you mentioned:

    Code:
                                                    w/ 2 out and                 
             Total    w/ Runners on    w/ 2 outs      runners on
             -----    -------------    ---------    -------------
    Milton      40               17           17                7
    Ortiz       34               16            5                3
    Hudson      14                7            6                5

    So, there are 15 instances of home runs (out of 88 total) surrendered by these 3 guys where you statement could hold true. How many really apply to it? Here are the game logs for each of the home runs:

    Eric Milton:
    Code:
                          Batter     Event
                          Before     Before
    Date      Opp         Homer      Homer        How scoring runner reached
    -------   ---------   ---------  -----------  --------------------------
    4/26/05	  Cubs	      Burnitz    Single       2-out single
    5/23/05	  Nationals   Schneider  Ground Out   1-out error by Lopez
    5/28/05	  Pirates     Bay        Fly out      No out single
    6/18/05	  Braves      Giles      Single       2-out single
    7/21/05	  Cubs        Hairston   Pop out      1-out single scores a runner
    8/05/05	  Marlins     Conine     Force out    1-out single
    5/18/05   Mets        Wright     Fly out      No out walk
    Ramon Ortiz:
    Code:
                          Batter     Event
                          Before     Before
    Date      Opp         Homer      Homer        How scoring runner reached
    -------   ---------   ---------  -----------  --------------------------
    9/21/05   Cardinals   Marquis    Ground out   No out single
    7/27/05   Dodgers     Kent       Double       1-out error by Lopez
    5/17/05   Mets        Wright     Fly out      1-out single
    Luke Hudson:
    Code:
                          Batter     Event
                          Before     Before
    Date      Opp         Homer      Homer        How scoring runner reached
    -------   ---------   ---------  -----------  --------------------------
    9/03/05   Braves      Laroach    Walk         No out single, big inning
    6/09/05   Devil Rays  Perez      Ground out   1-out walk
    7/01/05   Astros      Berkman    Single       No out single, 1-out HBP, 2-out walk
    7/19/05   Cubs        Burnitz    Walk         2-out double & walk
    9/09/05   Pirates     J. Wilson  Double       2-out single & double
    I've looked into the game logs in a little more detail than what I put here, but I would say the defense contributed to maybe 4 instances of giving extra outs to these three pitchers just before they gave up home runs. It's hard to tell at this point without re-watching the games, but I don't have that ability.

    Anyway, the ultimate point is not to list out all of these instances. That was just silly research that I did. The real point is that your contention that the defense was a major factor in the poor performance by the pitching staff doesn't hold that much water.
    That's not to say the defense shouldn't be improved, but only seven times this year did the Milton give up home runs with runners on and 2 outs. That's not even 20% of the home runs he surrendered. And even if every one of them was a result of a failure by the defense leading to extra outs, the guy makes $8 million a year. Isn't it reasonable to expect that he can get out of those types of situations every once in a while?
    Thank you.

    The guy's already admitted that he's only seen a scant few games over the past year, but still he feels that he's some kind of authority.
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

  14. #58
    Stats are misleading!
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    Re: Let the Sweet Lou rumors begin....

    Quote Originally Posted by wheels
    Thank you.

    The guy's already admitted that he's only seen a scant few games over the past year, but still he feels that he's some kind of authority.

    There you guys go again. Pure brilliance.

    Okay, for the 127th time. I catch 16-19 Reds games a season on television.
    I catch maybe another 10-12 afternoon games if I am at work.

    And I watch every single highlight of every single game on MLB.com, as well as reconstruct what happened, typically play by play, and I read alot of scouting reports.

    But that's just the Reds, I actually watch alot more baseball than that.

    Now, going back to the spindoctor.

    I threw out as an example the 4th out to an inning. But, my point is just as valid to ANY HITTER ON BASE?!? Which was the point I was referring too, nice move on spinning the stats to fit your argument though. You should be a senator, or lawyer.

    In your own example that would mean of the 88 homeruns that Milton, Ortiz, and Hudon gave up this past season, 40 of them had a play right before it that allowed a baserunner.

    So how many of those baserunners got on where, and of course it's very speculative, a gold glove calibre solid glove man might have seriously prevented the runner in the first place?

    What was your conclusion......4?!?

    How did you come up with that one?
    Last edited by Milezinni; 11-17-2005 at 01:53 PM.

  15. #59
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    Re: Let the Sweet Lou rumors begin....

    Quote Originally Posted by fs43340
    Did John Franco help the Reds win a World Championship? I think not!
    But he did, at least partially, cost the Reds a pennant in '87.

    Not that I've held that against him ever since or anything.

  16. #60
    Resident optimist OldRightHander's Avatar
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    Re: Let the Sweet Lou rumors begin....

    Ok, while it may be true that poor defense can at times hinder good pitching, how often does that happen. Really good pitching can at times make a so so defense better because when a pitcher is going well, the hitters aren't making quality contact when they're putting the ball in play. Even a mediocre fielder can make the routine plays on a regular basis, but when hitters are hitting frozen ropes off a pitcher, it doesn't matter if there are 8 gold glovers out there. A couple good starters might not be the last piece to a championship, but you can't say the team would not be improved immensely. It takes pitching, defense, and hitting to win, but really good pitching can make up for deficiencies in the other areas. Sure the Reds need to improve defensively, but better pitching would no doubt help the defense.


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